Why slow it down????

[BruinVol]

I am very much a numbers person and I have done some research so beware if you don't like numbers.

My assumption was that "half season" martin has figured out in both previous years that letting his team run is the way to go and that's why there has been late season success.

I decided to put the numbers to the test about if pace even mattered for a martin coached team.

Here's what I found when annalizing scores and totals under Martin:

We are

16-19 when scoring 70 or less points.

21-3 when scoring 71 or more points.


We are:
17-15 when the total score is 130 or less total pts.

20-7 when the total is 131 or higher.

20-8 when either team scores 70 or more.

In games we lose the total score has averages 114.

In games we won the total score averages 133.



Those numbers have to tell a story.

We are much more successful playing an up tempo style and the numbers prove slowing it down is a terrible coaching decision.


Note: I didn't include OT games in my numbers

 

[vols 30]

Good post,

 

[BOP]

I am very much a numbers person and I have done some research so beware if you don't like numbers.

My assumption was that "half season" martin has figured out in both previous years that letting his team run is the way to go and that's why there has been late season success.

I decided to put the numbers to the test about if pace even mattered for a martin coached team.

Here's what I found when annalizing scores and totals under Martin:

We are

16-19 when scoring 70 or less points.

21-3 when scoring 71 or more points.


We are:
17-15 when the total score is 130 or less total pts.

20-7 when the total is 131 or higher.



Those numbers have to tell a story.

We are much more successful playing an up tempo style and the numbers prove slowing it down is a terrible coaching decision.


Note: I didn't include OT games in my numbers

I agree with you, but a key number you are missing is what are record is when the other team scores 70. Obviously we are going to win more when we score 70 regardless of tempo.

 

[Spartacavolus]

Or you can look at the first 13 minutes of the game again and see we scored 5 pts in 40 seconds when we ran and I believe about the same amount of points in the previous 12 minutes walking it up.
Takes much less research time.

 

[whocaresgobobcats]

who knows. they looked real good running in the exhibition games.

 

[BruinVol]

I agree with you, but a key number you are missing is what are record is when the other team scores 70. Obviously we are going to win more when we score 70 regardless of tempo.

We are 21-8 when either team scores 70 or more.

So why do we need the "game in the 60's"????

 

[BOP]

3-8 when we have up 70 or more

Not a very good record but does demonstrate a change is needed when you give up 70+ points only 11 times in 2 years and still don't have much success.

 

[BruinVol]

Not a very good record but does demonstrate a change is needed when you give up 70+ points only 11 times in 2 years and still don't have much success.

I edited that post with this:




We are 21-8 when either team scores 70 or more.

So why do we need the "game in the 60's"????

 

[clay1551]

Run, run, run.

 

[bleedingTNorange]

Someone with a kenpom subscription could shed a lot more light on this, simply looking at point totals doesn't exclusively mean you're running more.

 

[BruinVol]

Someone with a kenpom subscription could shed a lot more light on this, simply looking at point totals doesn't exclusively mean you're running more.

Huh???

Point totals over that many games tells us a lot

20-8 when either team scores 70.

That tells me all I need. Let's try to get to 70

 

[keckjm]

To run fast breaks you have to generate other teams into taking jump shots which lead to long rebounds and fast break chances if you can rebound the ball efficiently. It's hard for us to do this right now because Stokes can't guard my 48 year old mother with a bad back so teams pound the rock inside on us, and Stokes can't rebound for us when he's on the bench because he's in foul trouble.

 

[bamacheats]

Dang, it sucks to have a job, family, and life, or I could also be running some numbers.

 

[volKano]

Or you can look at the first 13 minutes of the game again and see we scored 5 pts in 40 seconds when we ran and I believe about the same amount of points in the previous 12 minutes walking it up.
Takes much less research time.

Was the 5 points in 40 seconds when Martin called a timeout and killed the momentum?

 

[bleedingTNorange]

Huh???

Point totals over that many games tells us a lot

20-8 when either team scores 70.

That tells me all I need. Let's try to get to 70

Possesions per game would be more telling than points per game. Improved fg%, 3pt%, ft%, less turnovers offensively, more forced tunrovers....all things that could lead to increased points without us actually pushing the tempo at all.

 

[BruinVol]

Possesions per game would be more telling than points per game. Improved fg%, 3pt%, ft%, less turnovers offensively, more forced tunrovers....all things that could lead to increased points without us actually pushing the tempo at all.

Wouldn't pushing the tempo lead to a higher FG% for teams that are better suited for a full court game??


Teams that's can't play in the half court get bad shots in a 50-60s kind of game

 

[whocaresgobobcats]

Someone with a kenpom subscription could shed a lot more light on this, simply looking at point totals doesn't exclusively mean you're running more.

you really need to look at kenpom to see that UT is better on offense at a faster pace?

 

[BruinVol]

One more crazy stat:


In our losses out total score average is 114.

In our wins its 133.


That's a HUGE difference.


We need to increase the pace with every chance we get

 

[keckjm]

One more crazy stat:


In our losses out total score average is 114.

In our wins its 133.


That's a huge difference.


We need to increase the pace with every chance we get

Increasing the tempo while also trying to generate some turnovers and bad shots, it'd be imperative our players don't get into foul trouble. Josh, Moore, McRae, and Barton would be pivotal if we wanted to press some and run high tempo, and without McRae or Barton for a long period of time due to foul trouble could cost us badly.

 

[bleedingTNorange]

you really need to look at kenpom to see that UT is better on offense at a faster pace?

Not what I said at all, is that how you comprehended it?

 

[BruinVol]

Not what I said at all, is that how you comprehended it?

Total average 114 when we lose

And 133 when we win.


Surely that's a big enough difference to realize we need a higher scoring pace???

 

[bleedingTNorange]

Wouldn't pushing the tempo lead to a higher FG% for teams that are better suited for a full court game??


Teams that's can't play in the half court get bad shots in a 50-60s kind of game

I'm not saying you're wrong, simply saying that point totals aren't solely proof we played a faster tempo, possesions per game would be.

 

[bleedingTNorange]

Total average 114 when we lose

And 133 when we win.


Surely that's a big enough difference to realize we need a higher scoring pace???

Did you see my post about turnovers and three point %?

 

[BruinVol]

Did you see my post about turnovers and three point %?

Bto,

Your a smart basketball guy.

If there is a 19 pt gap in winning and losing it means something when considering 2 yrs worth of data.

That's plenty enough games to make the averages reliable

 

[feathersax]

Or you can look at the first 13 minutes of the game again and see we scored 5 pts in 40 seconds when we ran and I believe about the same amount of points in the previous 12 minutes walking it up.
Takes much less research time.

This truth drives me bonkers! Anyone else?