Over/Under 7.5 wins (ESPN)

#27
#27
VFL-82-JP said:
Agreed. And I'd put Ga Tech in the Win column, because it's not going to be nearly as close as some think.

I'd also put LSU in the toss-up category; our only likely loss this year is Bama. Would be different if we played LSU early, but our QB and RBs will have plenty of experience by the time LSU rolls around in November.

So flip-flopping USCe and Ga Tech (USCe to toss-up, Ga Tech to a W), and moving LSU to the toss-up column, that gives us 7 likely wins, 1 likely loss, and 4 games that could reasonably go either way. If we split those, 2 and 2, we end the regular season at 9-3.

I'd definitely take the over.
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Georgia Tech went 3-0 against the SEC East last year, beating Georgia, Kentucky, and Vanderbilt. We didn't beat all 3.
 
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#29
#29
Freak must be on vacation..otherwise this would have been merged by now.
 
#30
#30
PEPPERJAX said:
8-4 imo. We beat a team we are not favored to beat and lose to one we should beat. It is the Butch Jones way.
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The "only" games Jones has lost since he's been here that he should have won, that I can recall, are candy and usce last year.
I don't think he'll lose to them this year esp with both at home. Think we get 1 or 2 wins from GA FL LSU
 
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#32
#32
volboy81 said:
The "only" games Jones has lost since he's been here that he should have won, that I can recall, are candy and usce last year.
I don't think he'll lose to them this year esp with both at home. Think we get 1 or 2 wins from GA FL LSU
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Do you remember 2 years ago when we lost to Oklahoma and Florida?? Both games we SHOULD have won
 
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#34
#34
I'll take the over. I won't put a number on it because I go into every single season fully expecting to win them all. And I'm certain that our players and coaches do as well. Go Vols!
 
#35
#35
The key games as I see it are georgia tech and fla. Win those and 9-3 is possible. Loses ga/al/lsu.
 
#36
#36
Sin City Vol said:
Do you remember 2 years ago when we lost to Oklahoma and Florida?? Both games we SHOULD have won
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Disagree.

Both games we COULD have won, definitely.

SHOULD have? No. They were peer competitors, and those games could reasonably have gone either way.
 
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#37
#37
BeardedVol said:
I'd put USCe into the toss-up pile until CBJ beats Muschamp.
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No way man, thats a gimme, we got all sorts of excuses as to why he cant beat him..lol

Ill still take over on 7.5, we should win 8. Maybe 9 if things go our way our way.
 
#38
#38
VFL-82-JP said:
Disagree.

Both games we COULD have won, definitely.

SHOULD have? No. They were peer competitors, and those games could reasonably have gone either way.
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You're right. You should never win games when you're up 2 tds in the 4th quarter. I know, I know, I'm a negavol and not a real Vol fan JP.
 
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#39
#39
Sin City Vol said:
Injuries are just part of it, he has to have players ready to go when someone goes down. I get years 1 and 2 but he's been here a while now, the talent behind the starters should be there and if it's either not developed or not panning out, then that falls on him.

What I would like to see this year is better in-game coaching. Is he going to panic if we're up 4 at Florida with 3-4 minute left? He seems to tense up and pray the clock goes faster. He's good when he's playing from behind but playing with the lead can sometimes be a challenge.
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Injuries are definitely a part of it, but you give the same number of key injuries to bama and Clemson and they lose games they shouldn't and do not make it to the national title game. All the people except for two that we couldn't lose at the beginning of the year, we lost. Barnett and Dobbs were the only 2 we kept the whole year. There is normal wear and tear and then there I'd just bad luck. Lol
 
#41
#41
inVOLved24 said:
Injuries are definitely a part of it, but you give the same number of key injuries to bama and Clemson and they lose games they shouldn't and do not make it to the national title game. All the people except for two that we couldn't lose at the beginning of the year, we lost. Barnett and Dobbs were the only 2 we kept the whole year. There is normal wear and tear and then there I'd just bad luck. Lol
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We gave the benefit to Fulmer in '94 because of one player. Then he begged for it in '08 by actually figuring up X amount of players missed X amount of quarters. Doing so he actually counted the same players multiple times and used quarters to achieve large numbers. The problem then was the program was in a decline. The problem now is that the program has hit the ceiling!

Come on now, man!
 
#42
#42
IknoxvolsI said:
We gave the benefit to Fulmer in '94 because of one player. Then he begged for it in '08 by actually figuring up X amount of players missed X amount of quarters. Doing so he actually counted the same players multiple times and used quarters to achieve large numbers. The problem then was the program was in a decline. The problem now is that the program has hit the ceiling!

Come on now, man!
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What makes you believe we have hit our ceiling? With all the injuries, butch still did not regress in wins last season, and we beat uga and uf in the same season. That is still progress in my opinion from the year prior and especially since fulmer left... I don't get your logic here.
 
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#43
#43
VFL-82-JP said:
Disagree.

Both games we COULD have won, definitely.

SHOULD have? No. They were peer competitors, and those games could reasonably have gone either way.
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Leading at HOME in the 4th QTR...you should win those games
 
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#45
#45
My take (In order of difficulty):

Wins: 1. Indiana State, 2. UMass, 3. Southern Miss, 4. Mizzou, 5. Vandy, 6. SC, 7. Georgia Tech, 8. Kentucky

Toss ups: 9. Georgia, 10. Florida

Probable Losses: 11. LSU, 12. Bama

That's 9 wins with one toss up victory going our way!

If we get upset, it will probably be Kentucky or GT. If we pull off an upset, it will probably be LSU.
 
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#47
#47
illinoisvolfan1 said:
I'm going to be in Vegas at the end of June. I'll see how I'm feeling then. Trending to the under right now.
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Ain't saying it couldnt happen but there is only 1 really good team on that schedule.

It's happened before tho. I can see the hesitation.
 
#48
#48
KBVol said:
You're right. You should never win games when you're up 2 tds in the 4th quarter. I know, I know, I'm a negavol and not a real Vol fan JP.
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KB, we also benefited from some games where we were on the opposite side of that coin. Should we have lost those?

Sometimes, two closely-matched teams play a game where one scores its points early, and the other one scores its points late. That doesn't mean the one who scored early was the better team...it just got its licks in first.

2015 and 2016 were topsy-turvy years for the Vols. In 2015, we got early leads on some good peer competitors (Oklahoma and Florida, in particular), but then gave up an equal number of points later in the game. In 2016, just the opposite frequently happened: we had to come roaring back from behind in several games that began as potential blowouts, including Va Tech, Florida and Georgia.

In neither of those years were we much stronger than those peer teams. We either made hay early, or came back and made hay late, but we were always playing a near-equal opponent.


p.s. I don't think you're a NegaVol, not at all. I think highly of you. You are less happy than I figured you'd be in the off-season after we finally got Florida's monkey off our back...but then again, USCe and Vandy will do that to a fella.
 
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#49
#49
Yankee_Vol said:
Leading at HOME in the 4th QTR...you should win those games
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By that logic, you think Florida SHOULD have won against us last year? They were ahead 21-3 midway through the 3rd quarter, after all.

Fact is, both 2015 and 2016, against Oklahoma once and Florida both seasons, either we or they COULD have won, and the only one that SHOULD have was the one that did...we were that closely matched.



p.s. Weren't we in the Swamp 2 years ago against Florida? Pretty sure we were. Home against Oklahoma, but away vs. Florida.
 
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