Over/Under 7.5 wins (ESPN)

#101
#101
PEPPERJAX said:
8-4 imo. We beat a team we are not favored to beat and lose to one we should beat. It is the Butch Jones way.
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I cannot recall a single game that CBJ has won that we were predicted to lose, however there are several games that we lost as the favorite.
 
#102
#102
Tnslim1 said:
I cannot recall a single game that CBJ has won that we were predicted to lose, however there are several games that we lost as the favorite.
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Without taking time to go back and check what the prognosticators were saying before each game, I'd guess these two at least we won in spite of being widely predicted to lose:

-- USCe, 2013
-- Georgia, 2015

Possibly one of the bowl games, too, maybe Florida this past season (with an 11-game streak running, a lot of the prognosticators would take the safe path and predict it to continue). So there could be others. But I'd look first at those two.
 
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#103
#103
I'd say LSU is a toss up based purely on the fact Orgeron is as unpredictable of a coach as you can get.
 
#104
#104
First Vegas lines released for Florida and Kentucky games...

@FLA -5
@UK Even

Should Butch be fired if we are 3-5 after KY game?
 
#106
#106
VFL-82-JP said:
Agreed. And I'd put Ga Tech in the Win column, because it's not going to be nearly as close as some think.

I'd also put LSU in the toss-up category; our only likely loss this year is Bama. Would be different if we played LSU early, but our QB and RBs will have plenty of experience by the time LSU rolls around in November.

So flip-flopping USCe and Ga Tech (USCe to toss-up, Ga Tech to a W), and moving LSU to the toss-up column, that gives us 7 likely wins, 1 likely loss, and 4 games that could reasonably go either way. If we split those, 2 and 2, we end the regular season at 9-3.

I'd definitely take the over.
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Agreed, lsu may shut it down by the time we play them. If they lose to bammer they have nothing to play for by the time they head to Knoxville.
 
#110
#110
KBVol said:
No idea. I hope they crater and are one of the worst defenses in modern college football history.

Question is, given the poor circumstances that Florida has found themselves in each of McElwain's first 2 seasons, when they still represented the East in the SECCG, will it even matter?
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It would definitely matter IMO. The lows UF has hit under McElwain have been almost entirely because of offensive or special teams struggles. They made it to Atlanta twice in a row because they had top ten defenses loaded with NFL talent led by a good to great DC.

Just look at some of the wins they had in 2015 like Vandy (9-7), FAU (20-14 where they needed a defensive fumble return to the 2 yard line to score one TD, FAU's defense scored one of their TDs, AND ultimately needed a defensive goal line stand in OT to win), and UK (14-9).


If they'd had just a solid defense or a bad one, no way they'd have made to the SECCG that year. They arguably could have dropped the LSU or Vandy games in 2016 without a defense as productive as the one they had.
 
#111
#111
zeppelin128 said:
15-0, beating Bama twice.

But seriously I see 8-9 wins. Toss ups including the usual suspects of Florida and UGA, with the addition of LSU. Bama is a likely loss. I don't see a repeat of the Vandy and South Carolina fiascos. Surely our late season injury situation won't be a repeat of last year's weirdness.

Surely.
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We wont have to have many injuries to get into big trouble. This team lacks depth and experience at many positions. A few key injuries could be devastating to this team.
 
#112
#112
Given the schedule, uncertainty at the most important position on the field, a totally new staff, several players seemingly in a perpetual state of injury, I think 7 wins is about right for this year.
 
#113
#113
Darth_Shiveman said:
It would definitely matter IMO. The lows UF has hit under McElwain have been almost entirely because of offensive or special teams struggles. They made it to Atlanta twice in a row because they had top ten defenses loaded with NFL talent led by a good to great DC.

Just look at some of the wins they had in 2015 like Vandy (9-7), FAU (20-14 where they needed a defensive fumble return to the 2 yard line to score one TD, FAU's defense scored one of their TDs, AND ultimately needed a defensive goal line stand in OT to win), and UK (14-9).


If they'd had just a solid defense or a bad one, no way they'd have made to the SECCG that year. They arguably could have dropped the LSU or Vandy games in 2016 without a defense as productive as the one they had.
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With all due respect Darth, "woulda, coulda, shoulda". Can't disagree with your points, they're all legit, the games you outline happened and COULDVE gone the other way......but they didn't.

And despite all the factors that could've gone against UF, they still found themselves playing in the SECCG both years, each of McElwain's first two years, despite holes and deficiencies all over the roster.
 
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#115
#115
KBVol said:
With all due respect Darth, "woulda, coulda, shoulda". Can't disagree with your points, they're all legit, the games you outline happened and COULDVE gone the other way......but they didn't.

And despite all the factors that could've gone against UF, they still found themselves playing in the SECCG both years, each of McElwain's first two years, despite holes and deficiencies all over the roster.
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No disagreement to your ultimate point, with the caveat that the holes and deficiencies were almost entirely on offense and at kicker. Thee defense was and has been loaded for 5-6 years straight now. McElwain has dealt with a few injuries on defense at times, but never holes or deficiencies.


But I was responding to a post where you questioned whether it would've mattered if UF had had a bad defense the past two seasons and whether they'd have been able to win the West anyway.


And the answers are obviously yes and no respectivey. Without those defenses, UF is a 7-8 win team tops in 2015 and 2016, period.

Edit: There's no point in posing a hypothetical question about a past season if you're just gonna push the answer to the side and say "woulda shoulda coulda" lol
 
#116
#116
I think they surprise everyone and exceed expectations. I'm seeing 9-10 wins. Although we're replacing a lot of guys, we've got a lot of really good athletes. If a QB steps up we'll wins our fair share of games.
 
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