‘23 ME PF JP Estrella (Tennessee commit)

#110
#110
bleedingTNorange said:
Wait, you mean like, the panic/reaction was a bit premature?
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I don't think any reasonable person would have rated my concern at a level of "panic", which isn't to say your comments were pointed at me directly. Maybe they were, maybe they weren't, but we had several debates surrounding the issue.

While things certainly seem to be taking a turn for the better with regards to our recruiting fortune, it's also not unreasonable to acknowledge that we went thru a lot of bodies to get to this point, as well. I think that we all universally agree that Barnes is going to grab kids from somewhere, at some point, and make a competitive team. And frankly, if this were 25 years ago, we'd never know about all the misses and simply celebrate the kids we landed and enjoy their careers. Access to all the information in the age of internet access, for better or worse, reveals the warts as well as the wins. Missing on numerous targets to whittle the exhaustive list of 20-ish targets down to 5 actual options is nerve-wracking. It put us in a position where we pretty much had to nail down all of those remaining guys, or start fresh at the drawing board. And with our recent success, you'd think it wouldn't come to that for a program with the kind of trajectory we've had.
 
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#113
#113
cncchris33 said:
I don't think any reasonable person would have rated my concern at a level of "panic", which isn't to say your comments were pointed at me directly. Maybe they were, maybe they weren't, but we had several debates surrounding the issue.

While things certainly seem to be taking a turn for the better with regards to our recruiting fortune, it's also not unreasonable to acknowledge that we went thru a lot of bodies to get to this point, as well. I think that we all universally agree that Barnes is going to grab kids from somewhere, at some point, and make a competitive team. And frankly, if this were 25 years ago, we'd never know about all the misses and simply celebrate the kids we landed and enjoy their careers. Access to all the information in the age of internet access, for better or worse, reveals the warts as well as the wins. Missing on numerous targets to whittle the exhaustive list of 20-ish targets down to 5 actual options is nerve-wracking. It put us in a position where we pretty much had to nail down all of those remaining guys, or start fresh at the drawing board. And with our recent success, you'd think it wouldn't come to that for a program with the kind of trajectory we've had.
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My post wasn’t directed at you specifically, or any 1 poster for that matter, but just the general mindset that quite a few people seeemed to have and that I didn’t. As I’ve said before there were mentions of firing 2 assistants because of our recruiting, that’s looking a bit foolish. However as for your post, once again you mention this exhaustive list, and even throw out the number 20-ish, as I detailed before that’s really misleading and not accurate at all.

Tennessee pushed for/prioritized: Justin Edwards, Coen Carr, Aden Holloway, Freddie Dilione, JP Estrella, Cade Phillips and Silas Demary by my recollection. They’ve landed 2 of those, and look poised to land a 3rd from that group, “missing” on Edwards, Carr, Holloway and Demary. Demary could be argued as not a miss as Tennessee seemed to view that as either or, we can call Holloway a miss and I’ll give you that, but we also seemed to identify Dilione and make a push for him shortly after a Holloway OV, and clearly Dilione is the guy currently viewed as the better player. So 3/7 we can say if you want to include all of those guys, 3/6 if no Demary…I wouldn’t really consider that missing on a bunch of bodies, especially when it looked quite clear for awhile what/who their plan was.

I said way back when you and I discussed this topic and the assistants before that if come fall we are struggling and don’t have a nice class put together I would then have some concerns, and wouldn’t blame anyone for the same, looks like they are going to put together one of the best fall classes Tennessee has ever seen though.
 
#114
#114
bleedingTNorange said:
My post wasn’t directed at you specifically, or any 1 poster for that matter, but just the general mindset that quite a few people seeemed to have and that I didn’t. As I’ve said before there were mentions of firing 2 assistants because of our recruiting, that’s looking a bit foolish. However as for your post, once again you mention this exhaustive list, and even throw out the number 20-ish, as I detailed before that’s really misleading and not accurate at all.

Tennessee pushed for/prioritized: Justin Edwards, Coen Carr, Aden Holloway, Freddie Dilione, JP Estrella, Cade Phillips and Silas Demary by my recollection. They’ve landed 2 of those, and look poised to land a 3rd from that group, “missing” on Edwards, Carr, Holloway and Demary. Demary could be argued as not a miss as Tennessee seemed to view that as either or, we can call Holloway a miss and I’ll give you that, but we also seemed to identify Dilione and make a push for him shortly after a Holloway OV, and clearly Dilione is the guy currently viewed as the better player. So 3/7 we can say if you want to include all of those guys, 3/6 if no Demary…I wouldn’t really consider that missing on a bunch of bodies, especially when it looked quite clear for awhile what/who their plan was.

I said way back when you and I discussed this topic and the assistants before that if come fall we are struggling and don’t have a nice class put together I would then have some concerns, and wouldn’t blame anyone for the same, looks like they are going to put together one of the best fall classes Tennessee has ever seen though.
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I was just referring to the list of players that we were recruiting. To which degree is certainly up for debate, but to see that list of 20 or so potential options continue to shrink to 5 or 6 with only one commitment was concerning. It just felt like we had put ourselves in a position where we had to bat close to 1.000 on our final remaining targets in order to deem the fall class a success, which is a dangerous proposition. It seems like thise concerned with recruiting would have found our final class more palatable if the commitments had landed over the course of the spring/summer rather than backloaded into the fall. For example, if had landed Phillips in May, Dilione in June, and Estrella in July, then you'd have probably not heard as much concern over recruiting.

And from a thousand foot perspective, that likely seems neurotic...it probably is, but a lot of times, people are prisoners of the moment, so it isn't entirely surprising to view it as struggling. Just like the baseball player mired in an 0-30 slump who breaks out and hits 4 homers in an 8-game span while going 16-30. Now, all of a sudden, he's hitting .267 with 4 HRs across those 60 ABs, which is plenty good. That average across 600 ABs in a season gives you a .267 hitter with 40 HRs.
 
#115
#115
cncchris33 said:
I was just referring to the list of players that we were recruiting. To which degree is certainly up for debate, but to see that list of 20 or so potential options continue to shrink to 5 or 6 with only one commitment was concerning. It just felt like we had put ourselves in a position where we had to bat close to 1.000 on our final remaining targets in order to deem the fall class a success, which is a dangerous proposition. It seems like thise concerned with recruiting would have found our final class more palatable if the commitments had landed over the course of the spring/summer rather than backloaded into the fall. For example, if had landed Phillips in May, Dilione in June, and Estrella in July, then you'd have probably not heard as much concern over recruiting.

And from a thousand foot perspective, that likely seems neurotic...it probably is, but a lot of times, people are prisoners of the moment, so it isn't entirely surprising to view it as struggling. Just like the baseball player mired in an 0-30 slump who breaks out and hits 4 homers in an 8-game span while going 16-30. Now, all of a sudden, he's hitting .267 with 4 HRs across those 60 ABs, which is plenty good. That average across 600 ABs in a season gives you a .267 hitter with 40 HRs.
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Sure, but like I said at those times they weren’t guys we were pursuing, so that should probably be taken into account. The guys we were prioritizing were saying in interviews that they were looking to make commitments in August/September etc, so that was the timeline that would make sense. Looking at 247 rankings today 74/150 are committed, they aren’t all to P5 schools but let’s say they are…there’s like 65-70 P5 teams, so that would be 1 per. Obviously many schools have more, not suggesting there aren’t any, but most seem to be around 1-2 commits as of today.

Looking at just SEC:
3 commits: 2 schools
2 commits: 5 schools
1 commit: 6 schools
0 commits: 1 schools

So 1.69 is the average number of commits as of today for SEC schools, we are sitting at 2 and in a week it is presumed we will be sitting at 3, so if anything we would seemingly be ahead of the pace of most schools which again would seemingly go a bit against that panic/worry mindset.
 
#117
#117
Berry4Heisman14 said:
So can anyone who has seen this kid play give me the low down on how he plays? Is he a stretch big?
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from 247…


11086023.jpeg

Adam FinkelsteinDIRECTOR OF SCOUTING

“Estrella is a late-bloomer who has grown 8 inches since his freshman year of high school. He has good hands and terrific natural touch. He’s at his best in offensive structure and really shines in the various actions that his Middlesex Magic squad runs for him. He has a definite passing instinct and shows flashes of being a high-level frontcourt facilitator. Physically, he’s still growing into his body a bit, which is to be expected for someone who has grown as rapidly as he has in recent years, and isn’t exceptionally long. He runs fluidly and is solid athletically for his size, but not yet super mobile. He’s also still in the process of building up his body, so there are times when the speed or physicality of the game can get the better of him. Inside, he has good footwork, both before the catch (where he can flip to hips to change the angle of his seal) and with the ball, as well as good dexterity and ability to score with either hand, but needs to be able to hold his spots consistently and simultaneously develop a higher release point on his jump hook (especially over his right shoulder). Estrella is already a shooting threat from behind the arc and is showing better loft on his ball from that distance than he did earlier in the spring, but is not yet a high percentage three-point shooter. Defensively, he rebounds his area effectively due to his size and soft hands, and will likely continue to evolve as he gets stronger. Similarly, he’s a solid shot-blocker, primarily from off the ball, but could also continue to emerge. Overall, Estrella projects as an inside-out big who is skilled, smart, and fundamentally sound, but still needs to keep filling out his frame, getting stronger, and developing along the same trajectory he’s been ascending on in recent years.”
 
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#118
#118
Watching some of his film I think he’s more mobile defensively than Finklestein gives him credit for. He moves his feet really well for a guy his size. From what I’ve seen plays with toughness and good motor too.

Here’s a video of Estrella recently going against ‘22 Kentucky commit Ugonna Kingsley, 7 footer with a 7’5 wingspan and one of the top defensive centers in the country

 
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#120
#120
Really liked how his outside shot pulled the other center away from the paint and opened the lane up for his teammates. He also understood how to position himself at the rim when his guy left him to attempt to block a shot. Sign him up!
 
#121
#121
Fulky is going to be a logical compare and contrast. I think 2 easiest contrasts that are evident very quickly is that Fulky is a more explosive leaper and JP is a much better perimeter shooter. There are obviously more things than just that. But I feel those 2 things are obvious very quickly.
 
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#123
#123
orangemadam said:
BTO and Chris - how does he compare to Fulkerson as a freshman? Your opinion of course.
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bleedingTNorange said:
Not sure there’s really any comparison, Estrella’s game is much different and he should be able to play more early.
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I agree that stylistically they don't really compare much, but I'm not sure I'd say Estrella will come in and play more, early, either. Fulk averaged a hair over 17 mpg prior to the game he was hurt in as a freshman, starting 6 games, and he only played a total of 20 minutes in his first 3 games. Over the next 6, he averaged almost 23 mpg. Fulk played mostly out of necessity on a team with little proven talent and even less experience. Estrella will still have Aidoo and possibly Uros ahead of him, so I'm not sure I'd expect him to average 17.3 mpg as a freshman unless Aidoo and/or Plavsic move on. He may approach that if Plav moves on and Aidoo can't handle 28 minutes.

Stylistically, his post game is reminiscent of Colin Castleton of Florida. Estrella is a much more capable shooter from outside than CC. Someone else mentioned Luka Garza as a comp. Estrella has some similar game traits, but lacks the size and strength of Garza.
 
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#124
#124
Even with Aidoo here Estrella is more than capable of playing as a big 4 imo, much like we’ve seen Nkahmoua do quite a bit. I think Estrella will very likely average more than 17mpg his freshman his unless something changes with the roster, which obviously could happen. But if it’s just Estrella, Aidoo and Awaka I would think it’s a certainty that Estrella is over 17mpg, probably even if Uros returns as well.
 
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