11/7 Allstate Playoff Predictor

[miket4god]

The committee is looking for the best teams regardless of what conference they belong to. Boo literally said that very statement Tuesday night... This infatuation that the committee is only going to fill the playoff with conference champs is clownish.

And when you look at the "best teams", you have to look to Vegas as a supporting detail as well. It isn't the end all be all, but it offers some perspective.

In the case of 12-1 Oregon, 12-1 Clemson, 12-1 TCU, 11-2 LSU as conference champs, LSU would undoubtedly be favored against each of the 3 teams. Especially if they close the season winning 7 straight that include the #9, #6, and #1 team.... Oregon has a decent schedule to end but it is nowhere near that tough...

The committee cares about the best 4 teams regardless of the conferences they belong too. This isn't a conspiracy. Listen the Boo himself.

Those statements are all trash for public consumption, they absolutely 100% without a doubt care which conference the teams belong to.

 

[WilcoVolsFan]

Sad, but Tennessee goes 11-1 and gets left out. Book it.

Whatcha want to bet on that?

 

[Jeff Clark]

Sad, but Tennessee goes 11-1 and gets left out. Book it.

I agree

 

[JMSqb11]

Those statements are all trash for public consumption, they absolutely 100% without a doubt care which conference the teams belong to.

"That statements are trash" as the committee put an undefeated TCU team behind a one loss Bama...... If their comments are trash, I guess the rankings are trash too because they are ranking teams based on their comments......

 

[miket4god]

"That statements are trash" as the committee put an undefeated TCU team behind a one loss Bama...... If their comments are trash, I guess the rankings are trash too because they are ranking teams based on their comments......

The only rankings that matter are at the end of the season. The rankings now ARE trash.

 

[andywilson001]

I expect the top 4 tonight will be the 4 remaining undefeated teams.

1 Georgia
2 OSU
3 Michigan
4 TCU

No other 1-loss team should be above Tennessee at this point, so I expect us to be 5

5 Tennessee

As for the remaining teams, I think Clemson and Bama drop too far down to have a chance at recover. And I think 2-loss LSU jumps up over Oregon.

6 LSU
7 Oregon

Beyond that, we still have USC and Ole Miss who are technically still in it. I would give Ole Miss the edge and say…

8 Ole Miss
9 USC
10 Alabama

Tennessee’s biggest hurdle down the stretch will be the lack of a conference championship. If Oregon finishes 12-1 with a Pac12 title, and TCU finishes 13-0 with a Big 12 title, we probably won’t make it. Fortunately, the odds of both of those things happening are very low. Especially with TCU.

The loser of OSU/Michigan will obviously be out, and a 1-loss TCU will be out even if they win the Big12..

But there’s also the remote possibility of LSU beating Georgia in Atlanta and winning the SEC. I think if that happens, we might see the first 2-loss team in the playoffs. And that would put us out. Because there is no way the committee will put 3 SEC teams in… right? Imagine the salt if the playoff teams ended up being..

1 Ohio State
2 Georgia
3 LSU
4 Tennessee

It’s a pipe dream I know, but the salt would be delicious.

 

[VolArmy74]

The playoff committee looks at things week-to-week. People HAVE to understand this fact. Tennessee could very well still be ahead of TCU, Oregon, USC, and UCLA tonight. But things change weekly. We are playing the worst part of our schedule the last three weeks. All four of these others are playing much more meaningful games. The committee does not look at what's yet to come when ranking things THIS week. They look at what's happened up to this point.

Saying that, up to this point Tennessee will still be ahead of all of those IMO except maybe TCU. But, as the season winds down even if we beatdown the sisters of the poor of the SEC East these other teams are all going to be playing meaningful games and getting more and more national attention. There is 100% going to be a push for a one loss conference champion to be in the playoff over a 1 loss team that didn't even go to their title game. It just so happens that it may be happening to Tennessee which is unfortunate. But there are still scenarios when Tennessee can get in the playoffs but I think everyone has to temper their expectations and become fans of a lot of other schools over these last few weeks.

I've said it before but as a UT fan you really need to root for all of these things:

1. UGA to run the table through the SECCG and stay #1 in the country

2. OSU/Michigan game to be a blowout OR the winner of the OSU/Michigan game to lose another game also. There's a chance that 2 Big 10 teams can get in the playoff. In fact, I honestly think that if it comes down to it and the committee had to choose between a one loss OSU/Michigan who lost a nailbiter in their big game or a 1 loss UT they will go with the Big 10 loser and take 2 Big 10 teams because there's a lot of SEC fatigue in the country.

3. TCU needs to lose plain and simple. This is paramount. If they run the table then there's going to only be one spot open and a bunch of teams vying for that last spot.

4. Pac 12 mayhem needs to happen. You need Oregon, USC, and UCLA to all lose again. A one loss Pac 12 team - no matter who it is - will jump UT in a final playoff ranking. There's already talking heads talking up Oregon and how impressive they've been since their opening week drubbing by UGA. There are people saying that the UT loss against UGA was just as big of a beatdown. Whether it's true or not - and that part is definitely NOT true - it's a talking point already. Which leads me to believe I am dead on about even Oregon passing UT with 1 loss because a rematch between Oregon and UGA in the first round would be much more of a national storyline than a rematch between UGA and UT. Whether any of us like that or not.

5. ACC needs both Clemson and UNC to both lose again. Clemson may look like hot garbage but they have the benefit of how good they "were" over the past decade going for them. Even a big loss to Notre Dame if they right the ship and win out - as a conference champion they absolutely would jump UT. And UNC definitely would as well.

Assume UGA does win out and run the table they are a lock for #1. Also assume that TCU loses and the OSU/Michigan game is a blowout. The Big 10 winner then will likely be #2 as an undefeated team. That would leave 2 playoff spots up for grabs. If the Pac 12 and ACC both have 1 loss teams they both get in over UT. They just will. I don't want to be a debbie downer it's just the way things would shake out. So then you need either ACC or Pac 12 winner having 2 losses AND the OSU/Michigan game being a blowout AND TCU losing AND UGA running the table.

Then UT is back in as a #4 seed (probably). But it's not given and they need a lot of help to get there.

Also UT needs to win big and with style points these last 3 games. If weather is not ideal it could slow our offense down and cause games to be closer than they should be. We play Mizzou this weekend with a noon kickoff. The high on Saturday is in the low 50s and it's supposed to be pretty windy. With the way Mizzou's defense has been playing lately - and if the weather is a factor - the game on Saturday could be closer than it needs to be for Tennessee to have style points. Hopefully not. And hopefully they'll boatrace USCjr and Vandy. But even if they do win convincingly in all 3 remaining games it's still an uphill battle to get into the playoff.

And don't even get into the big what if - what if UGA loses somewhere along the way? What if Ole Miss beats Alabama this weekend and they run the table? They'll be a 1 loss SEC West team and maybe locked out of the SECCG also. If LSU gets beaten by Arkansas or A&M and Ole Miss wins out then they are the SEC West representative in the SECCG. What if they beat UGA? Then Ole Miss and UGA both in the playoff more than likely.

Anyone here who has had the opinion of LSU running the table and beating UGA and 3 SEC teams in the playoff is smoking some of the best stuff on the planet. That won't happen. Especially in a year where it looks like there's a high chance there will be several one loss teams to choose from. If LSU indeed runs the table and beats UGA then they'd jump over UT in the final playoff rankings. I don't know if it would be enough to get them into the playoffs but they'd jump us.

If I'm wrong I'll admit as much after these things play out. Right now it's just fun discussing all of the possibilities and even being in the running for the playoff. But anyone that thinks that we are in just by winning these last 3 games - I'd bet my house that's not the case. Don't let the playoff rankings tonight give you false hope or false dread either one. The playoff ranks will change weekly depending on what happened that weekend. I would make it a guaranteed lock that if TCU is behind UT this week IF they beat Texas next week they'll probably pass us then. Or if not certainly by the final playoff ranking if they win out against Baylor, Iowa State, and their title game.

Still a lot of football to be played and all of this is just what this forum is supposed to be about - discussion. I just want to caution any UT fan to temper their expectations right now on being locked into a playoff spot. They need way more help than some people think. And if I'm wrong I'll gladly be wrong at the end of the year because it means we are in the playoff. But I'm not going to bite on the narrative that we are still in great shape. I know I'm cheering for TCU to lose and two loss Pac 12 and ACC champions. And the OSU/Michigan game to be a blowout. Everyone else should be cheering hard for those things also.

No one cares about Oregon football. Not even most people in Oregon. The tv ratings over the course of the season easily bear this out. The west coast in general doesn't care. That's why the Pac 12 is a dead conference walking. Prime time night Pac 12 games get about 1/4th the viewers of the top SEC game each week. Oregon has had one game in the top 10 this season, that was vs Georgia and it got about half the viewership of the top SEC games most weeks. Tennessee has been the top rated game in college football 3 times this season and all of our national broadcasts have been in the top 6 each week. ESPN's most viewed noon kickoff of 2022 was Tennessee vs LSU. We are a ratings juggernaut and a MUCH bigger story than Oregon.

 

[TNBV]

TCU with a loss is out of the playoff but could be a 1 loss champ. TCU’s ceiling is the #4 seed in the playoff and a 13-0 record is the only way they can make the playoff. They lose a game, they are out of top 10 and playoff hopes are gone leaving ACC and PAC12 1 loss champs figuring for the same playoff spot, the #4 seed. There is no scenario where Tennessee gets left out of the playoff if they are 11-1

Oregon (or the PAC12 champ for that matter) at 12-1 with a title can only get in the playoff if TCU is not 13-0.
Clemson will need help even at 12-1.

Tennessee is going to be the #3 seed as long as we go 11-1. There is no scenario where Tennessee gets left out of the playoff with an 11-1 record. The Big 12, PAC12, and ACC are all fighting for the 4th and final playoff spot. This isn’t hard to understand.

The more often and confidently you say the same thing over and over the more clueless you appear. There are literally multiple scenarios that a 11-1 UT gets left out.

 

[JMSqb11]

The more often and confidently you say the same thing over and over the more clueless you appear. There are literally multiple scenarios that a 11-1 UT gets left out.

There is scenario where Tennessee at 11-1 gets left out. If TCU goes undefeated, they are in. TCU at 13-0 means a 12-1 PAC12 and 12-1 ACC champ are out of the playoff.

Right now the final playoff spot is between 3 teams. Those 3 teams are TCU at 13-0, the PAC 12 champ, and the ACC champ. If TCU loses, they are out and the PAC12 and ACC champ are up for the last spot.

However, Tennessee with an 11-1 finish is going to the playoff. You can choose to not believe this and live in fantasy world, but we are going to the playoff. TCU going 13-0 has zero to with our playoff seeding....

Star this

 

[Dougie_D]

If the Vols win out, no way will Oregon be ranked ahead of them because of the UGA drubbing. Then, the committee will look at the strength of schedule and the losses. Clemson's loss to ND is much worse than the Vols loss to #1 UGA on the road. If UNC were to beat Clemson, their 3 pt. wins over Duke, UVA, and Miami coupled with a 2 pt. win over App St. and a loss to ND will put them at about #7 or 8. If the Vols win out convincingly , the only way we're not in is if two of three of the following plays out: TCU wins out, Clemson absolutely destroys their remaining opponents, OSU and Michigan is a really close game. Otherwise, we're in.

I don’t think the ACC gets in. It’s really a toss up between whoever wins PAC12 and TN.
If TCU loses, then B12 and ACC teams battle out for that 5th and 6th. Something like this:

1. GA 13-0
2. Ohio st/Mich 13-0
3. Oregon/USC/UCLA 12-1
4. TN 11-1
5. TCU 12-1
6. Clemson/UNC 12-1
7. LSU
8. Notre Dame

 

[TNBV]

There is scenario where Tennessee at 11-1 gets left out. If TCU goes undefeated, they are in. TCU at 13-0 means a 12-1 PAC12 and 12-1 ACC champ are out of the playoff.

Right now the final playoff spot is between 3 teams. Those 3 teams are TCU at 13-0, the PAC 12 champ, and the ACC champ. If TCU loses, they are out and the PAC12 and ACC champ are up for the last spot.

However, Tennessee with an 11-1 finish is going to the playoff. You can choose to not believe this and live in fantasy world, but we are going to the playoff. TCU going 13-0 has zero to with our playoff seeding....

Star this

TCU #4 STAR THAT

 

[GVol1966]

The only rankings that matter are at the end of the season. The rankings now ARE trash.

That’s true.