11/7 Allstate Playoff Predictor

#76
#76
PlayoffC said:
Here is what hurts Tennessee: 1) At a national level, no one watched (5)Tennessee vs (25)LSU. 2) A 2-loss Bama hurts the value of the Bama win. 3) Everyone watched (1)Tennessee vs (3) Georgia. 4) No Divison Title 5) No Conference Title Game 6) No Conference Title 7) Brand: the networks are in this for the money. They'll select the teams that they have to. Ex. undefeated TCU but when it comes to preference Ex. 11-1 Tennesse vs 11-1 USC, it's not even close. They will take USC every time. Tennessee has to rebuild its national brand. Tennessee had it in the 90's it can get it again but it doesn't have it today.
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At the national level, everyone seen UGA destroy Oregon by 46 points. Oregon hasn’t played a tough schedule since then. It will work itself out
 
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#77
#77
DownNDirty said:
I've never said we had no shot in my 10,000 ft view of the situation but I would argue that we need a lot more help than most are willing to admit. A lot of people were pointing to last year when 2 SEC teams got in. And that happened because there were 2 loss ACC and Big 12 champions and a 3 loss Pac 12 champion. I feel like the committee is going to go with a 1 loss conference champion over UT (except TCU if they are a 1 loss Big 12 champ). If it's UNC or Clemson at 1 loss in the ACC and Oregon/USC/UCLA at 1 loss in the Pac 12 they'd be ahead of UT in the final playoff rankings. And there's a chance that if OSU/Michigan is a very tight game the loser could be ahead of them.

I may be wrong but I just think the people that feel like just winning these last 3 games is all we need is sorely mistaken. These playoff rankings can and will change every week. If Tennessee is ahead of TCU tonight that doesn't mean they'll be ahead of them at the end of the year if TCU wins out. They'll pass Tennessee. An undefeated Big 10 team will be #1 or #2 at the end of the year. And if there's an ACC or Pac 12 champion with only one loss by the end of the season I think they'd jump over UT. There will be a big push for conference champs to get a look over a team that didn't win the conference title.

I do think some of the things Tennessee needs may happen but they need quite a bit of help I think. And they have to win impressively the next 3 weeks. They can't have a 31-20 type of win. All these games need to be like 48-21 type of beatdowns.
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We need a "don't like" but "agree" button.

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#78
#78
I definitely wanted to win Saturday.

But, I have to admit, the scenario where lose to GA then play them for a Title or Title shot is preferred over winning Sat and then having to repeat in the playoff. I base this on the mindset of 19-23 year olds playing a 2nd game after winning or losing previously. I think it has a major psychological impact on the 2nd game. In short, I bet Kirby and their staff would rather have anyone in the playoff but TN.

Not sure this can be statistically verified in playoff and conference title games. But, it sure feels that way.
It would be interesting to see the stats since 1992 (SEC) for title game or playoff game rematches where the records and rankings were basically equal going into the 2nd matchup. Not like a Bama v Mizzu title game, but only the top 5-10 matchups.
I'm too lazy & maybe 2001 LSU redux is still clouding my thinking? 🤷
 
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#82
#82
5FingerVolPunch said:
This is how I see it shaking out.
1. UGA
2. Michigan
3. Vols
4. OSU

I think TCU loses to Texas Saturday bumping Vols from #5 to #4. Then I think Michigan upsets OSU. OSU falls to #4 and Vols jump to #3.

This is assuming the CFP has Vols at #5 on Tuesday.
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Honestly, for once I hope the Suckeyes mop the floor with Michigan.

Don't get me wrong. I hate tOSU. They and ND are way at the bottom of my list

My rooting interests here are strategic though.

The committee has shown they will bend over backwards to put Ohio State in. Michigan beats them, I'm worried 2 B10 teams get in a d we get shut out.

So for that reason, for this one time only-go Buckeyes
 
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#88
#88
5FingerVolPunch said:
This is how I see it shaking out.
1. UGA
2. Michigan
3. Vols
4. OSU

I think TCU loses to Texas Saturday bumping Vols from #5 to #4. Then I think Michigan upsets OSU. OSU falls to #4 and Vols jump to #3.

This is assuming the CFP has Vols at #5 on Tuesday.
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Well damn, I was about to write the “EXACT” same thing earlier. “GO VOLS”!!!
 
#90
#90
I hope not but people should not be shocked if we get knocked out by the Pac 12 champ (Assuming UGA, OSU and undefeated TCU are 1,2,3). Oregon still plays #14 Utah and #23 Oregon state and would either play top 10 UCLA or top 10 USC. USC would have beaten top 10 UCLA and top 16 ND to get to the PAC 12 game. Assuming the top 3 are as above (UGA.OSU,TCU), going in to that last championship weekend, USC and Oregon are likely to be #5 and #7 in the ranking. While we sit at home, they would play on Championship weekend. BOTH teams would have 3 wins over top 25 teams in the last 4 weeks of the season while we played SC, Mizz and Vandy. I know, Oregon sucked worse against UGA than we sucked. They also would have won 12 straight, with 3 of the last 4 against ranked teams, including the #7 team, AND would have a conference championship. USC would have and even better resume than Oregon.
 
#91
#91
TNBV said:
I hope not but people should not be shocked if we get knocked out by the Pac 12 champ (Assuming UGA, OSU and undefeated TCU are 1,2,3). Oregon still plays #14 Utah and #23 Oregon state and would either play top 10 UCLA or top 10 USC. USC would have beaten top 10 UCLA and top 16 ND to get to the PAC 12 game. Assuming the top 3 are as above (UGA.OSU,TCU), going in to that last championship weekend, USC and Oregon are likely to be #5 and #7 in the ranking. While we sit at home, they would play on Championship weekend. BOTH teams would have 3 wins over top 25 teams in the last 4 weeks of the season while we played SC, Mizz and Vandy. I know, Oregon sucked worse against UGA than we sucked. They also would have won 12 straight, with 3 of the last 4 against ranked teams, including the #7 team, AND would have a conference championship. USC would have and even better resume than Oregon.
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Incredibly well written summary. But to me a huge amount depends on how this weeks CFP rankings look. It will just give a solid indication of how the CFP thinks. If the Vols are at 3 or even 4, vs at 5, will show us a lot!
 
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#92
#92
KeyVol14 said:
At the national level, everyone seen UGA destroy Oregon by 46 points. Oregon hasn’t played a tough schedule since then. It will work itself out
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Oregon will end by playing 3 ranked teams including USC who would likely be # 7 then. That would make 12 straight wins for Oregon after the UGA loss.
 
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#93
#93
Aussie Vol said:
Incredibly well written summary. But to me a huge amount depends on how this weeks CFP rankings look. It will just give a solid indication of how the CFP thinks. If the Vols are at 3 or even 4, vs at 5, will show us a lot!
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Absolutely. If we are 3 or 4 than I do not believe TCU could pass us. Then TCU would need to worry about a 1 loss PAC 12 champ.
 
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#95
#95
Aussie Vol said:
Incredibly well written summary. But to me a huge amount depends on how this weeks CFP rankings look. It will just give a solid indication of how the CFP thinks. If the Vols are at 3 or even 4, vs at 5, will show us a lot!
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The playoff committee looks at things week-to-week. People HAVE to understand this fact. Tennessee could very well still be ahead of TCU, Oregon, USC, and UCLA tonight. But things change weekly. We are playing the worst part of our schedule the last three weeks. All four of these others are playing much more meaningful games. The committee does not look at what's yet to come when ranking things THIS week. They look at what's happened up to this point.

Saying that, up to this point Tennessee will still be ahead of all of those IMO except maybe TCU. But, as the season winds down even if we beatdown the sisters of the poor of the SEC East these other teams are all going to be playing meaningful games and getting more and more national attention. There is 100% going to be a push for a one loss conference champion to be in the playoff over a 1 loss team that didn't even go to their title game. It just so happens that it may be happening to Tennessee which is unfortunate. But there are still scenarios when Tennessee can get in the playoffs but I think everyone has to temper their expectations and become fans of a lot of other schools over these last few weeks.

I've said it before but as a UT fan you really need to root for all of these things:

1. UGA to run the table through the SECCG and stay #1 in the country

2. OSU/Michigan game to be a blowout OR the winner of the OSU/Michigan game to lose another game also. There's a chance that 2 Big 10 teams can get in the playoff. In fact, I honestly think that if it comes down to it and the committee had to choose between a one loss OSU/Michigan who lost a nailbiter in their big game or a 1 loss UT they will go with the Big 10 loser and take 2 Big 10 teams because there's a lot of SEC fatigue in the country.

3. TCU needs to lose plain and simple. This is paramount. If they run the table then there's going to only be one spot open and a bunch of teams vying for that last spot.

4. Pac 12 mayhem needs to happen. You need Oregon, USC, and UCLA to all lose again. A one loss Pac 12 team - no matter who it is - will jump UT in a final playoff ranking. There's already talking heads talking up Oregon and how impressive they've been since their opening week drubbing by UGA. There are people saying that the UT loss against UGA was just as big of a beatdown. Whether it's true or not - and that part is definitely NOT true - it's a talking point already. Which leads me to believe I am dead on about even Oregon passing UT with 1 loss because a rematch between Oregon and UGA in the first round would be much more of a national storyline than a rematch between UGA and UT. Whether any of us like that or not.

5. ACC needs both Clemson and UNC to both lose again. Clemson may look like hot garbage but they have the benefit of how good they "were" over the past decade going for them. Even a big loss to Notre Dame if they right the ship and win out - as a conference champion they absolutely would jump UT. And UNC definitely would as well.

Assume UGA does win out and run the table they are a lock for #1. Also assume that TCU loses and the OSU/Michigan game is a blowout. The Big 10 winner then will likely be #2 as an undefeated team. That would leave 2 playoff spots up for grabs. If the Pac 12 and ACC both have 1 loss teams they both get in over UT. They just will. I don't want to be a debbie downer it's just the way things would shake out. So then you need either ACC or Pac 12 winner having 2 losses AND the OSU/Michigan game being a blowout AND TCU losing AND UGA running the table.

Then UT is back in as a #4 seed (probably). But it's not given and they need a lot of help to get there.

Also UT needs to win big and with style points these last 3 games. If weather is not ideal it could slow our offense down and cause games to be closer than they should be. We play Mizzou this weekend with a noon kickoff. The high on Saturday is in the low 50s and it's supposed to be pretty windy. With the way Mizzou's defense has been playing lately - and if the weather is a factor - the game on Saturday could be closer than it needs to be for Tennessee to have style points. Hopefully not. And hopefully they'll boatrace USCjr and Vandy. But even if they do win convincingly in all 3 remaining games it's still an uphill battle to get into the playoff.

And don't even get into the big what if - what if UGA loses somewhere along the way? What if Ole Miss beats Alabama this weekend and they run the table? They'll be a 1 loss SEC West team and maybe locked out of the SECCG also. If LSU gets beaten by Arkansas or A&M and Ole Miss wins out then they are the SEC West representative in the SECCG. What if they beat UGA? Then Ole Miss and UGA both in the playoff more than likely.

Anyone here who has had the opinion of LSU running the table and beating UGA and 3 SEC teams in the playoff is smoking some of the best stuff on the planet. That won't happen. Especially in a year where it looks like there's a high chance there will be several one loss teams to choose from. If LSU indeed runs the table and beats UGA then they'd jump over UT in the final playoff rankings. I don't know if it would be enough to get them into the playoffs but they'd jump us.

If I'm wrong I'll admit as much after these things play out. Right now it's just fun discussing all of the possibilities and even being in the running for the playoff. But anyone that thinks that we are in just by winning these last 3 games - I'd bet my house that's not the case. Don't let the playoff rankings tonight give you false hope or false dread either one. The playoff ranks will change weekly depending on what happened that weekend. I would make it a guaranteed lock that if TCU is behind UT this week IF they beat Texas next week they'll probably pass us then. Or if not certainly by the final playoff ranking if they win out against Baylor, Iowa State, and their title game.

Still a lot of football to be played and all of this is just what this forum is supposed to be about - discussion. I just want to caution any UT fan to temper their expectations right now on being locked into a playoff spot. They need way more help than some people think. And if I'm wrong I'll gladly be wrong at the end of the year because it means we are in the playoff. But I'm not going to bite on the narrative that we are still in great shape. I know I'm cheering for TCU to lose and two loss Pac 12 and ACC champions. And the OSU/Michigan game to be a blowout. Everyone else should be cheering hard for those things also.
 
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#96
#96
JMSqb11 said:
The odds of 3 teams are small but LSU is a TCU loss and SEC Championship away from forcing the issue.

There is no scenario where LSU makes the playoff and Tennessee doesn’t. So LSU making the playoff means 3 SEC teams.
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Hope you're right, but I wouldn't bet money on that.
 
#97
#97
JMSqb11 said:
You’re mistaken. Tennessee at 11-1 will be the 3 seed. A one loss Big12, PAC12, ACC champ would get the final playoff spot.
There is no scenario where a third conference champ with 1 loss gets the 3 seed over an 11-1 Tennessee. Tennessee’s ceiling is the 3 seed. PAC12, ACC, and Big12 are fighting for the final spot. Tennessee is going to the playoff as 11-1 team. This is not debatable.
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You're adding teams I did not include. if Oregon and TCU win out they will be in the playoffs. I never mentioned a one loss TCU or a 1 loss ACC champ. If you think otherwise prepare to be disappointed. They will literally be right behind us in the CFP rankings this week and both have multiple chances remaining for big ranked wins while we do not.
 
#98
#98
DownNDirty said:
The playoff committee looks at things week-to-week. People HAVE to understand this fact. Tennessee could very well still be ahead of TCU, Oregon, USC, and UCLA tonight. But things change weekly. We are playing the worst part of our schedule the last three weeks. All four of these others are playing much more meaningful games. The committee does not look at what's yet to come when ranking things THIS week. They look at what's happened up to this point.

Saying that, up to this point Tennessee will still be ahead of all of those IMO except maybe TCU. But, as the season winds down even if we beatdown the sisters of the poor of the SEC East these other teams are all going to be playing meaningful games and getting more and more national attention. There is 100% going to be a push for a one loss conference champion to be in the playoff over a 1 loss team that didn't even go to their title game. It just so happens that it may be happening to Tennessee which is unfortunate. But there are still scenarios when Tennessee can get in the playoffs but I think everyone has to temper their expectations and become fans of a lot of other schools over these last few weeks.

I've said it before but as a UT fan you really need to root for all of these things:

1. UGA to run the table through the SECCG and stay #1 in the country

2. OSU/Michigan game to be a blowout OR the winner of the OSU/Michigan game to lose another game also. There's a chance that 2 Big 10 teams can get in the playoff. In fact, I honestly think that if it comes down to it and the committee had to choose between a one loss OSU/Michigan who lost a nailbiter in their big game or a 1 loss UT they will go with the Big 10 loser and take 2 Big 10 teams because there's a lot of SEC fatigue in the country.

3. TCU needs to lose plain and simple. This is paramount. If they run the table then there's going to only be one spot open and a bunch of teams vying for that last spot.

4. Pac 12 mayhem needs to happen. You need Oregon, USC, and UCLA to all lose again. A one loss Pac 12 team - no matter who it is - will jump UT in a final playoff ranking. There's already talking heads talking up Oregon and how impressive they've been since their opening week drubbing by UGA. There are people saying that the UT loss against UGA was just as big of a beatdown. Whether it's true or not - and that part is definitely NOT true - it's a talking point already. Which leads me to believe I am dead on about even Oregon passing UT with 1 loss because a rematch between Oregon and UGA in the first round would be much more of a national storyline than a rematch between UGA and UT. Whether any of us like that or not.

5. ACC needs both Clemson and UNC to both lose again. Clemson may look like hot garbage but they have the benefit of how good they "were" over the past decade going for them. Even a big loss to Notre Dame if they right the ship and win out - as a conference champion they absolutely would jump UT. And UNC definitely would as well.

Assume UGA does win out and run the table they are a lock for #1. Also assume that TCU loses and the OSU/Michigan game is a blowout. The Big 10 winner then will likely be #2 as an undefeated team. That would leave 2 playoff spots up for grabs. If the Pac 12 and ACC both have 1 loss teams they both get in over UT. They just will. I don't want to be a debbie downer it's just the way things would shake out. So then you need either ACC or Pac 12 winner having 2 losses AND the OSU/Michigan game being a blowout AND TCU losing AND UGA running the table.

Then UT is back in as a #4 seed (probably). But it's not given and they need a lot of help to get there.

Also UT needs to win big and with style points these last 3 games. If weather is not ideal it could slow our offense down and cause games to be closer than they should be. We play Mizzou this weekend with a noon kickoff. The high on Saturday is in the low 50s and it's supposed to be pretty windy. With the way Mizzou's defense has been playing lately - and if the weather is a factor - the game on Saturday could be closer than it needs to be for Tennessee to have style points. Hopefully not. And hopefully they'll boatrace USCjr and Vandy. But even if they do win convincingly in all 3 remaining games it's still an uphill battle to get into the playoff.

And don't even get into the big what if - what if UGA loses somewhere along the way? What if Ole Miss beats Alabama this weekend and they run the table? They'll be a 1 loss SEC West team and maybe locked out of the SECCG also. If LSU gets beaten by Arkansas or A&M and Ole Miss wins out then they are the SEC West representative in the SECCG. What if they beat UGA? Then Ole Miss and UGA both in the playoff more than likely.

Anyone here who has had the opinion of LSU running the table and beating UGA and 3 SEC teams in the playoff is smoking some of the best stuff on the planet. That won't happen. Especially in a year where it looks like there's a high chance there will be several one loss teams to choose from. If LSU indeed runs the table and beats UGA then they'd jump over UT in the final playoff rankings. I don't know if it would be enough to get them into the playoffs but they'd jump us.

If I'm wrong I'll admit as much after these things play out. Right now it's just fun discussing all of the possibilities and even being in the running for the playoff. But anyone that thinks that we are in just by winning these last 3 games - I'd bet my house that's not the case. Don't let the playoff rankings tonight give you false hope or false dread either one. The playoff ranks will change weekly depending on what happened that weekend. I would make it a guaranteed lock that if TCU is behind UT this week IF they beat Texas next week they'll probably pass us then. Or if not certainly by the final playoff ranking if they win out against Baylor, Iowa State, and their title game.

Still a lot of football to be played and all of this is just what this forum is supposed to be about - discussion. I just want to caution any UT fan to temper their expectations right now on being locked into a playoff spot. They need way more help than some people think. And if I'm wrong I'll gladly be wrong at the end of the year because it means we are in the playoff. But I'm not going to bite on the narrative that we are still in great shape. I know I'm cheering for TCU to lose and two loss Pac 12 and ACC champions. And the OSU/Michigan game to be a blowout. Everyone else should be cheering hard for those things also.
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The loser of OSU/UM is out of the picture. There SOS is horrible. There’s a reason why Michigan was left out of the top 4 last week. They’ve played no one.
 
#99
#99
FBtime said:
You're adding teams I did not include. if Oregon and TCU win out they will be in the playoffs. I never mentioned a one loss TCU or a 1 loss ACC champ. If you think otherwise prepare to be disappointed. They will literally be right behind us in the CFP rankings this week and both have multiple chances remaining for big ranked wins while we do not.
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TCU with a loss is out of the playoff but could be a 1 loss champ. TCU’s ceiling is the #4 seed in the playoff and a 13-0 record is the only way they can make the playoff. They lose a game, they are out of top 10 and playoff hopes are gone leaving ACC and PAC12 1 loss champs figuring for the same playoff spot, the #4 seed. There is no scenario where Tennessee gets left out of the playoff if they are 11-1

Oregon (or the PAC12 champ for that matter) at 12-1 with a title can only get in the playoff if TCU is not 13-0.
Clemson will need help even at 12-1.

Tennessee is going to be the #3 seed as long as we go 11-1. There is no scenario where Tennessee gets left out of the playoff with an 11-1 record. The Big 12, PAC12, and ACC are all fighting for the 4th and final playoff spot. This isn’t hard to understand.
 
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