11/7 Allstate Playoff Predictor

#103
#103
miket4god said:
Less than sero chance 3 SEC teams get in.
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A TCU loss and LSU win in Atlanta makes it closer than you think. Especially if its Oregon out of the PAC12 and Clemson out of the ACC.

I fully expect LSU to lose by 3 scores or have similar type loss to what we had vs UGA.
 
#104
#104
JMSqb11 said:
A TCU loss and LSU win in Atlanta makes it closer than you think. Especially if its Oregon out of the PAC12 and Clemson out of the ACC.

I fully expect LSU to lose by 3 scores or have similar type loss to what we had vs UGA.
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Oh I expect that also.
I also expect a ton of media SEC bias to keep us out. I'm not confident we get in with a Georgia win, but we have no shot with an LSU win.
Depends on what else happens obviously.
 
#105
#105
miket4god said:
Oh I expect that also.
I also expect a ton of media SEC bias to keep us out. I'm not confident we get in with a Georgia win, but we have no shot with an LSU win.
Depends on what else happens obviously.
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Sure we do. If LSU was to win and actually get in the playoff, the seeding would be:

1- Big Ten Champ 13-0
2-UGA SEC Runner Up 12-1
3- Tennessee 11-1
4- LSU SEC Champ 11-2

Tennessee goes 11-1 and we are a lock for the #3 seed.

13-0 TCU's best seed possible is the 4 seed.

TCU loses a game, they are out of the playoff hunt as the quality of remaining teams are awful with 2/3 loss teams left.

With a TCU loss, a 1 one loss PAC12 and ACC champ would get the #4 seed at best.

We take care of business the next 3 games and will be the 3 seed after the OSU/Michigan game is over.
 
#106
#106
JMSqb11 said:
TCU with a loss is out of the playoff but could be a 1 loss champ. TCU’s ceiling is the #4 seed in the playoff and a 13-0 record is the only way they can make the playoff. They lose a game, they are out of top 10 and playoff hopes are gone leaving ACC and PAC12 1 loss champs figuring for the same playoff spot, the #4 seed. There is no scenario where Tennessee gets left out of the playoff if they are 11-1

Oregon (or the PAC12 champ for that matter) at 12-1 with a title can only get in the playoff if TCU is not 13-0.
Clemson will need help even at 12-1.

Tennessee is going to be the #3 seed as long as we go 11-1. There is no scenario where Tennessee gets left out of the playoff with an 11-1 record. The Big 12, PAC12, and ACC are all fighting for the 4th and final playoff spot. This isn’t hard to understand.
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We disagree and that's ok. This is the scenario where we get left out at 11-1. It's not likely to occur but is definitely within the realm of possibility

1. UGA (undefeated SEC Champs)
2. OSU (undefeated Big 10 Champs)
3. TCU (undefeated Big 12 Champs)
4. Oregon (12-1 & PAC 12 champs)
 
#107
#107
JMSqb11 said:
Sure we do. If LSU was to win and actually get in the playoff, the seeding would be:

1- Big Ten Champ 13-0
2-UGA SEC Runner Up 12-1
3- Tennessee 11-1
4- LSU SEC Champ 11-2

Tennessee goes 11-1 and we are a lock for the #3 seed.

13-0 TCU's best seed possible is the 4 seed.

TCU loses a game, they are out of the playoff hunt as the quality of remaining teams are awful with 2/3 loss teams left.

With a TCU loss, a 1 one loss PAC12 and ACC champ would get the #4 seed at best.

We take care of business the next 3 games and will be the 3 seed after the OSU/Michigan game is over.
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lol where is 13-0 TCU in this scenario?
 
#108
#108
JMSqb11 said:
Sure we do. If LSU was to win and actually get in the playoff, the seeding would be:

1- Big Ten Champ 13-0
2-UGA SEC Runner Up 12-1
3- Tennessee 11-1
4- LSU SEC Champ 11-2

Tennessee goes 11-1 and we are a lock for the #3 seed.

13-0 TCU's best seed possible is the 4 seed.

TCU loses a game, they are out of the playoff hunt as the quality of remaining teams are awful with 2/3 loss teams left.

With a TCU loss, a 1 one loss PAC12 and ACC champ would get the #4 seed at best.

We take care of business the next 3 games and will be the 3 seed after the OSU/Michigan game is over.
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You are certainly entitled to your opinion but if I could make the wager right now I'd bet $100,000 today without hesitation that there's ZERO chance the SEC would get 3 teams into the CFP no matter what happened. I'm glad you've made peace with the fact you are confident that UT is locked in at 11-1 because at least you won't be stressing things over the last few weeks. I'm going to take a more realistic approach and hope and pray for everything to go right (UGA win out, OSU/Michigan to be a blowout, TCU losing, and either ACC or Pac 12 having their conference champ at 2 losses). That's Tennessee's path to getting into the playoff - and making sure they have no ugly wins over these next 3 weeks.
 
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#109
#109
When the dust settles, we will be #3, the undefeated big 10 winner will be #2, UGA will be #1, and they will roll over whoever is #4. We will beat the big 10 champ and face UGA for the title.
 
#110
#110
I think we need 2 of the 3 things below to happen to make the playoffs in addition to winning our last 3:

- All Pac12 teams end up with 2+ losses
- TCU loses at least once. Twice would be nice
- Michigan/Ohio State game isn't decided in either OT or some crazy down-to-the-wire finish

Like it or not, there will be pressure to look outside the SEC after Georgia. Even if LSU runs the table, there's no way the committee puts them ahead of us after losing by 4 TD's at home to us and with a worse record. NO chance. I also don't think the ACC has a chance unless there are just no other options. Luckily there are no Group of 5 undefeated teams that the committee could look at this year.
 
#111
#111
JMSqb11 said:
Sure we do. If LSU was to win and actually get in the playoff, the seeding would be:

1- Big Ten Champ 13-0
2-UGA SEC Runner Up 12-1
3- Tennessee 11-1
4- LSU SEC Champ 11-2

Tennessee goes 11-1 and we are a lock for the #3 seed.

13-0 TCU's best seed possible is the 4 seed.

TCU loses a game, they are out of the playoff hunt as the quality of remaining teams are awful with 2/3 loss teams left.

With a TCU loss, a 1 one loss PAC12 and ACC champ would get the #4 seed at best.

We take care of business the next 3 games and will be the 3 seed after the OSU/Michigan game is over.
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Foolish😂. Why not just put Vandy in there too since you’re listing things with a 0.0% chance of happening.
 
#114
#114
Fellas, there is zero chance Tenn doesn’t make the playoffs. Unless they lose. Otherwise, in my worthless opinion, may as well talk about something else.
 
#115
#115
FBtime said:
We disagree and that's ok. This is the scenario where we get left out at 11-1. It's not likely to occur but is definitely within the realm of possibility

1. UGA (undefeated SEC Champs)
2. OSU (undefeated Big 10 Champs)
3. TCU (undefeated Big 12 Champs)
4. Oregon (12-1 & PAC 12 champs)
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Oregon at 12-1 will not be in the playoff unless TCU has a loss. There is no scenario where TCU is 13-0 and a 12-1 Oregon gets in over an 11-1 Tennessee.
 
#116
#116
FBtime said:
lol where is 13-0 TCU in this scenario?
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What part of LSU needing to win in Atlanta AND TCU losing a game along the way is hard to understand?

The only way LSU has any shot at the playoff is being 11-2 with a win in Atlanta and the Big 12, ACC, and PAC 12 having 1 loss champs. Right now 2 of the 3 conferences will have 1 loss. TCU is the last domino to fall.
 
#117
#117
JMSqb11 said:
Oregon at 12-1 will not be in the playoff unless TCU has a loss. There is no scenario where TCU is 13-0 and a 12-1 Oregon gets in over an 11-1 Tennessee.
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A lot of hope here. TCU Goes 13-0 and they are in and there is not much of a discussion. If Cincinnati, made it last year an undefeated TCU will be in the CFP.
 
#118
#118
DownNDirty said:
You are certainly entitled to your opinion but if I could make the wager right now I'd bet $100,000 today without hesitation that there's ZERO chance the SEC would get 3 teams into the CFP no matter what happened. I'm glad you've made peace with the fact you are confident that UT is locked in at 11-1 because at least you won't be stressing things over the last few weeks. I'm going to take a more realistic approach and hope and pray for everything to go right (UGA win out, OSU/Michigan to be a blowout, TCU losing, and either ACC or Pac 12 having their conference champ at 2 losses). That's Tennessee's path to getting into the playoff - and making sure they have no ugly wins over these next 3 weeks.
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No need to stress about Tennessee. With the Clemson loss (which i'm on record saying I thought they'd go 13-0, I was wrong) and Bama loss, it eliminated two things that could have blocked Tennessee's playoff chances:

Bama winning in Atlanta at 12-1 would result in Bama and UGA in the playoff leaving Tennessee out.
Clemson losing means there is now just 1 conference out of Big12, PAC12, and ACC that could have 1 loss and that is TCU/Big12.

However, TCU is now fighting for the #4 seed. Tennessee's ceiling is the #3 seed. Their floor is #4 and that would be in the event of a UGA loss in Atlanta where they fall to #2 and we drop to #4 in order to avoid an all SEC semifinal matchup.
 
#119
#119
5FingerVolPunch said:
This is how I see it shaking out.
1. UGA
2. Michigan
3. Vols
4. OSU

I think TCU loses to Texas Saturday bumping Vols from #5 to #4. Then I think Michigan upsets OSU. OSU falls to #4 and Vols jump to #3.

This is assuming the CFP has Vols at #5 on Tuesday.
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wow the ultimate Big 10 vs SEC showdown
 
#120
#120
Sudden Impact said:
A lot of hope here. TCU Goes 13-0 and they are in and there is not much of a discussion. If Cincinnati, made it last year an undefeated TCU will be in the CFP.
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Not hope at all. Tennessee finishes 11-1, we are the 3 seed. TCU goes 13-0, they are the 4 seed. If TCU loses a game, PAC 12 and ACC duke it out for 4th seed. TCU is basically out of it with a loss from here on out. They face two 6-3 teams and a 4-5 ISU.... A loss to any of those and they will drop outside the top 6, if not the top 10.
 
#121
#121
DocVol said:
Foolish😂. Why not just put Vandy in there too since you’re listing things with a 0.0% chance of happening.
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If LSU runs the table to finish 11-2 with wins over #9 Ole Miss, #6 Bama, and #1 UGA and TCU loses, the committee will give LSU a hard look at the 4th spot.

LSU has to have TCU lose. If that happens, LSU moves up 1 spot automatically in the rankings. If they are in the top 6 when they play in Atlanta and beat the #1 team, they will have a decent case for jumping 2 spots in the playoff.

If you think that kind of close to the season has zero merit to give them a shot at a bid, albeit the least likely, you are crazy.

If TCU loses, LSU has a very small chance, but it is not out of the picture.
 
#122
#122
JMSqb11 said:
Sure we do. If LSU was to win and actually get in the playoff, the seeding would be:

1- Big Ten Champ 13-0
2-UGA SEC Runner Up 12-1
3- Tennessee 11-1
4- LSU SEC Champ 11-2

Tennessee goes 11-1 and we are a lock for the #3 seed.

13-0 TCU's best seed possible is the 4 seed.

TCU loses a game, they are out of the playoff hunt as the quality of remaining teams are awful with 2/3 loss teams left.

With a TCU loss, a 1 one loss PAC12 and ACC champ would get the #4 seed at best.

We take care of business the next 3 games and will be the 3 seed after the OSU/Michigan game is over.
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The committee would take a one loss Pac12 champ (Oregon or USC), one loss ACC champ (Clemson or UNC), one loss Big12 champ (TCU) or a one loss Big10 runner-up before they would allow 2 non-SEC champions and the SEC champion in. Doesn't matter who the 4 best teams are, never has mattered.
 
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#123
#123
JMSqb11 said:
Not hope at all. Tennessee finishes 11-1, we are the 3 seed. TCU goes 13-0, they are the 4 seed. If TCU loses a game, PAC 12 and ACC duke it out for 4th seed. TCU is basically out of it with a loss from here on out. They face two 6-3 teams and a 4-5 ISU.... A loss to any of those and they will drop outside the top 6, if not the top 10.
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I have always stated that end results would put us in at a 3 seed and now still believe it will if we win out. TCU will be out of it if they lose. I don't see 2 B10 team in the CFP. I think it may be a team in the PAC 12 that gets into the 4th Spot.
 
#124
#124
miket4god said:
The committee would take a one loss Pac12 champ (Oregon or USC), one loss ACC champ (Clemson or UNC), one loss Big12 champ (TCU) or a one loss Big10 runner-up before they would allow 2 non-SEC champions and the SEC champion in. Doesn't matter who the 4 best teams are, never has mattered.
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The committee is looking for the best teams regardless of what conference they belong to. Boo literally said that very statement Tuesday night... This infatuation that the committee is only going to fill the playoff with conference champs is clownish.

And when you look at the "best teams", you have to look to Vegas as a supporting detail as well. It isn't the end all be all, but it offers some perspective.

In the case of 12-1 Oregon, 12-1 Clemson, 12-1 TCU, 11-2 LSU as conference champs, LSU would undoubtedly be favored against each of the 3 teams. Especially if they close the season winning 7 straight that include the #9, #6, and #1 team.... Oregon has a decent schedule to end but it is nowhere near that tough...

The committee cares about the best 4 teams regardless of the conferences they belong too. This isn't a conspiracy. Listen the Boo himself.
 
#125
#125
Sudden Impact said:
I have always stated that end results would put us in at a 3 seed and now still believe it will if we win out. TCU will be out of it if they lose. I don't see 2 B10 team in the CFP. I think it may be a team in the PAC 12 that gets into the 4th Spot.
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Could be. TCU at 13-0, PAC12 Champ at 12-1, and ACC Champ at 12-1 are all vying the #4 spot as Tennessee is a lock for the #3 spot. Those 3 conference champs are battling for 1 spot as the top 3 are locked up as long as Tennessee finishes 11-1.

Crack open a beer and enjoy the rest of the season. We going to the playoff.
 
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