'16 NJ QB Jarrett Guarantano (Vols commit 4/15/2015)

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#2,376
#2,376
dyllisvol42 said:
Kid commits to us. Wins mvp awards at a few camps has great showings and gets dropped a few spots. Makes absolutely no sense to me. O well rankings don't mean to much any way.
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If he was bammer or osu he would be near 5*. Politics is what I see
 
#2,377
#2,377
butchna said:
Sound conspiracy theorist but you're correct. Commit to OSU (or Rutgers for that matter) and his ranking jumps.
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You're a solid poster, but I just don't buy this. Heck, half of our fanbase can't even claim to accept it given how predominant discussion of the "Butch bump" has become over the past two recruiting cycles. We have continually seen low rated players that Butch recruited ending up with significantly higher rankings than they originally had.

But, this doesn't have to mean that services "bump" recruits because Butch recruited them. The causal arrow does not have to face in that direction. Instead, they can receive a bump after committing or being offered because Butch is a great evaluator of talent, and he picked up on a player who was about to jump up in the rankings before those who do the rankings were able to pick up on it themselves. Similarly, players that Saban and Meyer offer could get bumps shortly after being offered because recruiting services are slower than they are at perceiving talent.

The only way to show bias would be to look at the players who receive bumps after being offered by Alabama and Ohio State, and then to compare their production to other players who were similarly rated both before and after the offer/commitment. Do they perform significantly worse than other 5 stars or high 4 stars? If so, and if on a statistically significant scale, then bias is likely. If not, then the explanation above is the most plausible one: Saban, Meyer, and Butch Jones are fantastic evaluators, and they pick up on players before recruiting services do.

Wait on Guarantano. Services are often a bit slow in making big jumps, especially with QBS (they have been in the spotlight for years, and they have a lot of data on them). If he has the kind of senior season his talent suggests, and if he continues camping as well as he has been, then he will finish highly rated on every service. They benefit from being accurate. And, we have a large enough fan base that they have no economic incentive to give us the short shrift.

Let's leave the conspiracy theories to the truthers, the birthers, and the other nutters.
 
#2,378
#2,378
turambar85 said:
You're a solid poster, but I just don't buy this. Heck, half of our fanbase can't even claim to accept it given how predominant discussion of the "Butch bump" has become over the past two recruiting cycles. We have continually seen low rated players that Butch recruited ending up with significantly higher rankings than they originally had.

But, this doesn't have to mean that services "bump" recruits because Butch recruited them. The causal arrow does not have to face in that direction. Instead, they can receive a bump after committing or being offered because Butch is a great evaluator of talent, and he picked up on a player who was about to jump up in the rankings before those who do the rankings were able to pick up on it themselves. Similarly, players that Saban and Meyer offer could get bumps shortly after being offered because recruiting services are slower than they are at perceiving talent.

The only way to show bias would be to look at the players who receive bumps after being offered by Alabama and Ohio State, and then to compare their production to other players who were similarly rated both before and after the offer/commitment. Do they perform significantly worse than other 5 stars or high 4 stars? If so, and if on a statistically significant scale, then bias is likely. If not, then the explanation above is the most plausible one: Saban, Meyer, and Butch Jones are fantastic evaluators, and they pick up on players before recruiting services do.

Wait on Guarantano. Services are often a bit slow in making big jumps, especially with QBS (they have been in the spotlight for years, and they have a lot of data on them). If he has the kind of senior season his talent suggests, and if he continues camping as well as he has been, then he will finish highly rated on every service. They benefit from being accurate. And, we have a large enough fan base that they have no economic incentive to give us the short shrift.

Let's leave the conspiracy theories to the truthers, the birthers, and the other nutters.
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You thought about this way too much 😝
 
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#2,381
#2,381
turambar85 said:
You're a solid poster, but I just don't buy this. Heck, half of our fanbase can't even claim to accept it given how predominant discussion of the "Butch bump" has become over the past two recruiting cycles. We have continually seen low rated players that Butch recruited ending up with significantly higher rankings than they originally had.

But, this doesn't have to mean that services "bump" recruits because Butch recruited them. The causal arrow does not have to face in that direction. Instead, they can receive a bump after committing or being offered because Butch is a great evaluator of talent, and he picked up on a player who was about to jump up in the rankings before those who do the rankings were able to pick up on it themselves. Similarly, players that Saban and Meyer offer could get bumps shortly after being offered because recruiting services are slower than they are at perceiving talent.

The only way to show bias would be to look at the players who receive bumps after being offered by Alabama and Ohio State, and then to compare their production to other players who were similarly rated both before and after the offer/commitment. Do they perform significantly worse than other 5 stars or high 4 stars? If so, and if on a statistically significant scale, then bias is likely. If not, then the explanation above is the most plausible one: Saban, Meyer, and Butch Jones are fantastic evaluators, and they pick up on players before recruiting services do.

Wait on Guarantano. Services are often a bit slow in making big jumps, especially with QBS (they have been in the spotlight for years, and they have a lot of data on them). If he has the kind of senior season his talent suggests, and if he continues camping as well as he has been, then he will finish highly rated on every service. They benefit from being accurate. And, we have a large enough fan base that they have no economic incentive to give us the short shrift.

Let's leave the conspiracy theories to the truthers, the birthers, and the other nutters.
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I know on Rivals that an Alabama OFFER is a bump in rating. If one crunches the numbers you can dispute it but it comes out that way. Tuttle was borderline 5 star by some but after he committed he dropped...after a heckuva season. He commits to Bama and it's 5 star across the board. Their program has respect...ours doesn't...yet. Now if you'll excuse me, I have to thwart my neighbor's plan to kidnap the President of Paraguay. :matrix:
 
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#2,384
#2,384
Rivals is not the Rivals of old. Not sure what happened over there but they are losing ground and respect.
 
#2,385
#2,385
Maxwell said:
Rivals is not the Rivals of old. Not sure what happened over there but they are losing ground and respect.
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It's like they are totally married to putting out updates at these certain intervals even if they are not ready. 247 I think ranks a kid once they have seen enough tape no matter when it happens.
 
#2,386
#2,386
I still like Rivals, but 247 killed them and everyone else by creating the composite rating. It instantly became the standard and now everyone cites them in articles about recruiting.
 
#2,387
#2,387
Haven't watched any other QB's film and I'm 100% sure this kid has the best potential out of anyone. Dynamic athlete. Imagine him with 15-20 more pounds on him. FL98...
 
#2,394
#2,394
247 asked George Whitfield for his top performers. His immediate response was there were 4 guys that clearly stood out from the pack. JG was one of those 4. He didn't elaborate besides that in terms of overall refined skills Shae Patterson, Malik Henry, JG and Dewayne Haskins were his top guys
 
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#2,395
#2,395
Nashvegas31 said:
247 asked George Whitfield for his top performers. His immediate response was there were 4 guys that clearly stood out from the pack. JG was one of those 4. He didn't elaborate besides that in terms of overall refined skills Shae Patterson, Malik Henry, JG and Dewayne Haskins were his top guys
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Rivals dont care about JG. He is not a bammer. Matter of fact they probably still dropping his rank.
 
#2,397
#2,397
Nashvegas31 said:
247 asked George Whitfield for his top performers. His immediate response was there were 4 guys that clearly stood out from the pack. JG was one of those 4. He didn't elaborate besides that in terms of overall refined skills Shae Patterson, Malik Henry, JG and Dewayne Haskins were his top guys
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I just listened to part of that interview, and Whitfield said JG was one of the two best pure passers in the competition. The ball seems like it is laser-guided and just goes where he wants it to go.

That is giddy inducing.
 
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#2,399
#2,399
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#2,400
#2,400
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