2020 Presidential Race

#25,258
#25,258
W.TN.Orange Blood said:
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#25,259
#25,259
Sometimes when Trump talks about his polls he says to add 9 points. I don’t hear a lot of push back on that. Nate Silver at 538 has in the past written that polls that survey all adults are biased toward Democrats by 9-10 points and polls that survey registered voters are biased toward Democrats by 7 points. Both Gallup and Pew Research agree with his analysis in their own work. We don’t typically see a slew of likely voter surveys until just before the elections and reportedly there is no significant bias in the likely voter polls. The experts agree that the Republicans also have a turnout advantage among likely voters, 1.9% historically in Presidential election years. The turnout advantage has to do with the composition of the respective coalitions for each party and their propensity to actually show up at the precincts.

Another factor that argues for increased scrutiny of national polls is they’re only measuring the popular vote. The Democrats have a huge margin in California right now, so huge that it was equivalent to over 3.3% of the total 2-party vote in 2016. That’s just the margin. In New York, Democrats had such a huge margin that the margin alone represented 1.35% of the total 2-party vote. Democrat margins in Illinois, Maryland, and Massachusetts combined for more than an additional 2% of the national popular vote. Those huge margins in the national popular vote don’t win them any additional electoral college votes and obviously that really pisses them off. lol.

Trump’s favorability in the 2016 election exit polls was 38%. The Real Clear Polling Average on the eve of the 2016 election had him at 42.2% and that was all likely voters polls which should have been most accurate. A combination of all adults and registered voter polls today, according to the Real Clear Average, have Trump’s job approval numbers at 45.3%. Clinton won the popular vote in 2016 by 2.1%. Trump won the Electoral College in 2016 by 13.8%. Unless Democrats in California, New York, and other solid blue states have moderated their view of the President, as a minimum I think the above noted experts, based on their past writings and not current punditry, would suggest one should add at least 7 points to the President’s current numbers. jmo.

So what does this mean? I think it means if the election were held today the President would likely win more than 50% of the popular vote, expand his electoral college margin, the Republicans would flip the House and hold the Senate. That’s structural. I think the Cook Partisan Voting Index favors the Republicans in most of the tossup house races that flipped to the Democrats in 2018. What then can the Democrats do? They now have a reputation, particularly among Republicans and many Independents, of crying wolf almost on a daily basis and have been doing so for over 3 years. Some in their own base have branded them with this reputation. There are already calls for their supporters not to despair.

They’re desperate. It’s the 4th quarter and they’re behind and they know it. It’s only natural that they would want to try to win, but how? When they lay traps for the President he doesn’t treat the traps as a mine field. He wades in swinging like a bull in a china shop. I think this perhaps best represents the President’s mindset, "I could stand in the middle of 5th Avenue and shoot somebody and I wouldn't lose voters," he said at a rally 4 years ago. He’s going to fight aggressively to the very end and his voters want him to fight. As long as he fights he believes those voters will not only stick with him, they will grow in numbers. For now it does seem to be working. Trump’s most loyal supporters are accused of not only being deplorable but also of being in a cult because the Democrats, try as hard as they may, cannot pry those supporters away from the President. It seemingly never occurs to them that the President’s supporters seriously don’t want, as James Carville pointed out, what they, the Democrats, are peddling. They’ve lost their damn minds and are averse to changing course. jmo.

Things could still change but the President and his Party are in the lead right now. The non-poll election models are suggesting a blowout. There’s less than 12 minutes (9 months) to go in the 4th quarter. I think we should be on the lookout for the Democrats to either start panicking or actually quitting. If they do either the rout will be on and I have no doubt the President will run up the score. He’s like that you know. jmo.
 
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#25,261
#25,261
Orange_Vol1321 said:
I heard today there's 39% of Democrats that consider themselves moderate. No way they vote for Bernie. I don't think they will vote for Trump, they will just stay home.
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I, too, would balk at voting for Bernie. But, I don't think he'll end up as the nominee. As proven in 16, the rigged DNC system will pick it.

It's odd with Biden, honestly. He'll do well and maybe win SC, but jeez can you come on 5th in NH and still end up the nominee?

What a cluster.
 
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#25,272
#25,272
ChattaTNVol said:
Sometimes when Trump talks about his polls he says to add 9 points. I don’t hear a lot of push back on that. Nate Silver at 538 has in the past written that polls that survey all adults are biased toward Democrats by 9-10 points and polls that survey registered voters are biased toward Democrats by 7 points. Both Gallup and Pew Research agree with his analysis in their own work. We don’t typically see a slew of likely voter surveys until just before the elections and reportedly there is no significant bias in the likely voter polls. The experts agree that the Republicans also have a turnout advantage among likely voters, 1.9% historically in Presidential election years. The turnout advantage has to do with the composition of the respective coalitions for each party and their propensity to actually show up at the precincts.

Another factor that argues for increased scrutiny of national polls is they’re only measuring the popular vote. The Democrats have a huge margin in California right now, so huge that it was equivalent to over 3.3% of the total 2-party vote in 2016. That’s just the margin. In New York, Democrats had such a huge margin that the margin alone represented 1.35% of the total 2-party vote. Democrat margins in Illinois, Maryland, and Massachusetts combined for more than an additional 2% of the national popular vote. Those huge margins in the national popular vote don’t win them any additional electoral college votes and obviously that really pisses them off. lol.

Trump’s favorability in the 2016 election exit polls was 38%. The Real Clear Polling Average on the eve of the 2016 election had him at 42.2% and that was all likely voters polls which should have been most accurate. A combination of all adults and registered voter polls today, according to the Real Clear Average, have Trump’s job approval numbers at 45.3%. Clinton won the popular vote in 2016 by 2.1%. Trump won the Electoral College in 2016 by 13.8%. Unless Democrats in California, New York, and other solid blue states have moderated their view of the President, as a minimum I think the above noted experts, based on their past writings and not current punditry, would suggest one should add at least 7 points to the President’s current numbers. jmo.

So what does this mean? I think it means if the election were held today the President would likely win more than 50% of the popular vote, expand his electoral college margin, the Republicans would flip the House and hold the Senate. That’s structural. I think the Cook Partisan Voting Index favors the Republicans in most of the tossup house races that flipped to the Democrats in 2018. What then can the Democrats do? They now have a reputation, particularly among Republicans and many Independents, of crying wolf almost on a daily basis and have been doing so for over 3 years. Some in their own base have branded them with this reputation. There are already calls for their supporters not to despair.

They’re desperate. It’s the 4th quarter and they’re behind and they know it. It’s only natural that they would want to try to win, but how? When they lay traps for the President he doesn’t treat the traps as a mine field. He wades in swinging like a bull in a china shop. I think this perhaps best represents the President’s mindset, "I could stand in the middle of 5th Avenue and shoot somebody and I wouldn't lose voters," he said at a rally 4 years ago. He’s going to fight aggressively to the very end and his voters want him to fight. As long as he fights he believes those voters will not only stick with him, they will grow in numbers. For now it does seem to be working. Trump’s most loyal supporters are accused of not only being deplorable but also of being in a cult because the Democrats, try as hard as they may, cannot pry those supporters away from the President. It seemingly never occurs to them that the President’s supporters seriously don’t want, as James Carville pointed out, what they, the Democrats, are peddling. They’ve lost their damn minds and are averse to changing course. jmo.

Things could still change but the President and his Party are in the lead right now. The non-poll election models are suggesting a blowout. There’s less than 12 minutes (9 months) to go in the 4th quarter. I think we should be on the lookout for the Democrats to either start panicking or actually quitting. If they do either the rout will be on and I have no doubt the President will run up the score. He’s like that you know. jmo.
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Excellent write up.
 
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