There are some similarities and some differences in the data. It is an eternity before election day but Biden is in a far better position than Clinton. Clinton's low support should have been a warning.
I think Trump has a job approval much lower that anyone who has recently won a second term. Biden is at 51.2 right now but the two weeks post VP pick and party convention can inflate the numbers.
The similarity is that Trump still has an Electoral College edge as we are near a tipping point. Democrats will have an edge of equal or greater value a few cycles from now. I expect a full flip flop from both parties on the importance of the EC at that point.
For this election, Trump could lose the popular vote by 3 to 6 million votes and still get reelected.
Watch Pennsylvania on election night to see what is actually happening. If it is close there, then it is a likely close everywhere.
Florida is a bit of a wild card too, and very important obviously. Trump's approval among seniors there will have to be shored up.
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