2020 Presidential Race

#44,077
#44,077
Rifleman said:
There are some similarities and some differences in the data. It is an eternity before election day but Biden is in a far better position than Clinton. Clinton's low support should have been a warning.

I think Trump has a job approval much lower that anyone who has recently won a second term. Biden is at 51.2 right now but the two weeks post VP pick and party convention can inflate the numbers.

The similarity is that Trump still has an Electoral College edge as we are near a tipping point. Democrats will have an edge of equal or greater value a few cycles from now. I expect a full flip flop from both parties on the importance of the EC at that point.

For this election, Trump could lose the popular vote by 3 to 6 million votes and still get reelected.

Watch Pennsylvania on election night to see what is actually happening. If it is close there, then it is a likely close everywhere.

Florida is a bit of a wild card too, and very important obviously. Trump's approval among seniors there will have to be shored up.

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I don't see that at all. Biden has a much clearer path to 270. Biden must win Pennsylvania, Wisconsin and Michigan. He has a solid lead in all 3. Trump must win one of those 3, while also protecting Florida, North Carolina and Arizona. Biden is showing a slight but steady lead in all 3. Trump must also win Ohio, while Biden only needs it if he loses Pennsylvania. The polls there are mixed. Every poll has it within the margin of error. The battleground states that Clinton won in 2016 were Virginia, Minnesota, New Hampshire, New Mexico, Colorado and Nevada. None of those states appear to be in play for 2020. They are all solidly in Biden's camp. It is more likely that Biden will reach 350 electoral college votes, than it is for Trump to reach 270. I honestly see no hope for Trump to win. Monkeying with the mail is all that he has left. He really is as desperate as he looks.
 
#44,080
#44,080
carlos86 said:
Rooney is a name I’ve seen thrown out there. But I would go with Will Hurd. The talk of Trump wanting to pardon Snowden might have put him over the edge.
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That should royally pi$$ every single member of Congress off, if that happens. Remember the outcry (and it was well-deserved) when Bill Clinton pardoned a fugitive from justice, named Marc Rich, who had sought refuge in Switzerland? This would be similar, but worse. Snowden is a spy, and still a fugitive, who has obviously provided an adversary with intel and sought refuge with that adversary. Pardoning him would be indefensible. Trump will probably do it... because Putin doesn't want to have to feed him anymore.
 
#44,096
#44,096
luthervol said:
Bad is bad but worse is worse.
Of course all continuums are not equal. There is a continuum of continuums.
I always assumed people used their own continuums until I was forced to realize just how many people operated in two dimensions. I'm not sure how much of that Trump caused and how much of that he simply took advantage of.
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Not an incorrect assumption. It’s just incomplete.

You forgot to account for the superseding “principle:” win at all costs.
 
#44,097
#44,097
RockyTop85 said:
Not an incorrect assumption. It’s just incomplete.

You forgot to account for the superseding “principle:” win at all costs.
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You know , it’s kinda cute when one liberal try’s to comfort another liberal by reassuring him of “their “ liberal belief system . Luther didn’t forget anything , it was just a dig. You are both about to vote on a 77 year old , white , multimillionaire political lifer , that you can go back through his public records and find where he runs against what your party is running toward full steam . Hell the entirety of the lefts party is running away from law and it’s enforcement , incarcerations, drug crime, border security , stopping illegal aliens from collecting benefits , sniffing women , making overt sexist , cultural and racist statements so that we can lift up these people up . You guys not only trot out ole uncle Joe , you back it up with Kamala and her prosecutorial issues , her recorded interview where she was smoking weed in some time warp , lynching law, ( which just coincidentally happen to fall into the famous Jussie Smollett time frame ) her reparations push and last but certainly not least for their “piece de resistance “ where they all got their collective three brain cells together and came up with the brilliant idea of wrapping a Kente- cloth around their necks and kneeling to support BLM.

-Nobody is forgetting about the win at all cost “ principle” , it’s the very reason why Luthers Continuum is bullfeathers .. it’s pure subjective reasoning .
 
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