2020 Presidential Race

[NorthDallas40]

A poll with an MOE of 5.5 is meaningless.

Understanding the margin of error in election polls

Yep. Throw that piece of trash away if they can’t get a decent enough sample to reach a reasonable MoE. From that alone I’d expect the opening sentence to be “after surveying 100 people on the streets of Philly...”

But I’m sure he saw it in his tweet feed and thus it was solid

 

[volbeast33]

MAGA!

One thing about voting for trump..... it means that you don’t buy into this propaganda BS

 

[NorthDallas40]

I will be the first to admit that if Trump wins, there is no reason to ever trust a poll again. A Trump victory should not be possible, if there is any legitimacy to them at all. If Trump wins, VolNation has my solemn promise, that I will never post another poll here again.

Marking so I can try to find it after you’re posting polls again in midterms

 

[VolinWayne]

Almost as annoying as Hillary's voice


James Woods (@RealJamesWoods) Tweeted:
The voice. https://t.co/Q54UeTVG3f

 

[Orangeburst]

I will be the first to admit that if Trump wins, there is no reason to ever trust a poll again. A Trump victory should not be possible, if there is any legitimacy to them at all. If Trump wins, VolNation has my solemn promise, that I will never post another poll here again.

Had me giddy until I saw the striked.

 

[NorthDallas40]

Almost as annoying as Hillary's voice


James Woods (@RealJamesWoods) Tweeted:
The voice. https://t.co/Q54UeTVG3f

OMFG she is just sooooooooooo unlikable

 

[BowlBrother85]

One thing about voting for trump..... it means that you don’t buy into this propaganda BS

It more than likely means that you don't buy deodorant either.

 

[Orangeburst]

Eric Trump (@EricTrump) Tweeted:
1973 Biden Enters Office
1974
1975
1976
1977
1978
1979
1980
1981
1982
1983
1984
1985
1986
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020 I’ll fix America!

Gold

 

[Boston Vol]

If Trump wins, VolNation has my solemn promise, that I will never post another poll here again.

Well now I’m rooting for Trump.

 

[1972 Grad]

I will be the first to admit that if Trump wins, there is no reason to ever trust a poll again. A Trump victory should not be possible, if there is any legitimacy to them at all. If Trump wins, VolNation has my solemn promise, that I will never post another poll here again.

Don't

Stop

Don't

Stop

Don't stop, don't stop.

 

[VolnJC]

Hearing that many registered Dems in PA....union and blue collar households.. are voting Trump..some that even voted Clinton in 16...gives me some hope..still stand by whoever wins PA wins election

 

[Velo Vol]

A poll with an MOE of 5.5 is meaningless.

Understanding the margin of error in election polls

You're right. Let's just go with a poll of the people at lunch who told us they're voting for Trump.

 

[BP4Prez]

Hearing that many registered Dems in PA....union and blue collar households.. are voting Trump..some that even voted Clinton in 16...gives me some hope..still stand by whoever wins PA wins election View attachment 319314

I agree. I think PA likely determines the outcome.

 

[Orangeburst]

You're right. Let's just go with a poll of the people at lunch who told us they're voting for Trump.

That is just as dumb.

 

[Boston Vol]

I will be the first to admit that if Trump wins, there is no reason to ever trust a poll again. A Trump victory should not be possible, if there is any legitimacy to them at all. If Trump wins, VolNation has my solemn promise, that I will never post another poll here again.

And I don’t know why you have this belief that a Trump win isn’t or shouldn’t be possible based on the polls. Every state that he needs to win is within the margin of error with the exception of Pennsylvania. Which is just a shade outside the margin of error. Biden is the favorite. He should win. But there is a legitimate pathway to 269/270 for Trump without the polls being wrong.

 

[Rifleman]

I will be the first to admit that if Trump wins, there is no reason to ever trust a poll again. A Trump victory should not be possible, if there is any legitimacy to them at all. If Trump wins, VolNation has my solemn promise, that I will never post another poll here again.

Trump could win the EC without the polls being off any more than in 2012 nationally. He'd just need that error in most swing states + a slightly larger error in Pennsylvania and he's over 270.

All the polls are really telling us right now is that the election will be somewhere between a narrow Trump win and a Biden landslide. They'd only be "wrong" if Trump won by a large margin or a landslide.

Trump is basically at the same chances of getting heads on three consecutive coin flips. Not that crazy of an event.

 

[volbeast33]

It more than likely means that you don't buy deodorant either.

Have you seen the biden voters marching in the streets? I don’t think I would cast that stone

 

[Rifleman]

The thing that muddies the water is that people pay too much attention to national polling.

National polling really has no relationship to the state races, so they are useless already, but are good for what they are meant for: to fill news blocks and start arguments/conversations.

If I output on all the national data crosstabs from all polls, average them, and push it back into the Cook Political's Swingometer, I'd get a Biden landslide. But only because the national polls don't have the granular focus of a good state poll. I went ahead and did it with an (expected) 4% turnout boost over 2016.



Trump's number here is 4-8 million short of his final tally I'd say.

 

[BreatheUT]

I’m not voting for Trump bc of his morality or values..... I was just stunned that someone used that as a reason to vote for Biden.

x100

 

[RavinDave]

I will be the first to admit that if Trump wins, there is no reason to ever trust a poll again. A Trump victory should not be possible, if there is any legitimacy to them at all. If Trump wins, VolNation has my solemn promise, that I will never post another poll here again.

Just another reason to pull for a Trump win.

 

[Orangeburst]

Trump could win the EC without the polls being off any more than in 2012 nationally. He'd just need that error in most swing states + a slightly larger error in Pennsylvania and he's over 270.

All the polls are really telling us right now is that the election will be somewhere between a narrow Trump win and a Biden landslide. They'd only be "wrong" if Trump won by a large margin or a landslide.

Trump is basically at the same chances of getting heads on three consecutive coin flips. Not that crazy of an event.

You know your stuff....Question, but not sure how to word it.

If the MOE is 5% and Biden has a 5 point lead (48-43), is that not the same as Trump possibly leading 48-43 when accounting for sampling error? The confidence factor includes the MOE as well doesn't it?

Second question. How does one determine MoE? There is obviously a MOE within a MOE..lol

 

[RavinDave]

Hearing that many registered Dems in PA....union and blue collar households.. are voting Trump..some that even voted Clinton in 16...gives me some hope..still stand by whoever wins PA wins election View attachment 319314

Is this your final answer?

 

[NorthDallas40]

You're right. Let's just go with a poll of the people at lunch who told us they're voting for Trump.

Why not just ignore polls with clearly bad setups on the repeatability of the results? Because you’d have to go outside your twitter feed?

 

[NorthDallas40]

Trump could win the EC without the polls being off any more than in 2012 nationally. He'd just need that error in most swing states + a slightly larger error in Pennsylvania and he's over 270.

All the polls are really telling us right now is that the election will be somewhere between a narrow Trump win and a Biden landslide. They'd only be "wrong" if Trump won by a large margin or a landslide.

Trump is basically at the same chances of getting heads on three consecutive coin flips. Not that crazy of an event.

Already setting up the “but the polls were in the margin of error” back peddling now huh?

 

[hUTch2002]

Went through my old north Knoxville neighborhood that was "where the rich people lived" 30 years ago. Saw two things of note. No one had mowed their grass, and 8 to 1 Biden to Trump signs.

Yep..my old neighborhood is now a democrat infested sh!thole. Sad.

Knoxville is more blue than people realize.