2020 Presidential Race

[NorthDallas40]

What cracks me up about the Biden rallies is the supposed "we don't want to make this into a super-spreader event."

No, you just can't get anyone to show up, so you make that excuse and act like you care by putting down those ridiculous circles.

Oh you’ve done it now! Joe cares about us and doesn’t want to subject us to being in close proximity to his crooked lying ass that’s all!

 

[Rifleman]

Already setting up the “but the polls were in the margin of error” back peddling now huh?

Stressed, huh? I understand.

I'm accurately describing what the probabilities are right now without any partisan spin. There is a lot of good data for Biden, but Trump also has a good chance because of the EC advantage he has. If this was a popular vote election, he'd have a very small (but still real) chance.

In binary events, if the least likely event has a 10 -15% chance of happening, that is a pretty good chance. Three straight heads is 12.5%.

There is a psychological component here, too. As anyone who has lost a large poker pot to someone who had a 5% chance of beating your hand on the river can attest, people tend to remember the long shot losses and wins and forget all the times the probabilities did what they usually do.

 

[NorthDallas40]

Well I stand corrected, you’re clearly bringing a lot to the discussion.

If you don’t see or can’t acknowledge the polling community back peddling

 

[BreatheUT]

What cracks me up about the Biden rallies is the supposed "we don't want to make this into a super-spreader event."

No, you just can't get anyone to show up, so you make that excuse and act like you care by putting down those ridiculous circles.

It can't be underscored how much CHINA contributed to the democrats campaign this election cycle. I think Jane Fonda said it best about COVID-19 being a gift for them.

They were able to make up every argument they think they have because of the pandemic. The economy, healthcare, riots and divisiveness. Biden has been able to stay in the house for six months, conduct unenthusiastic rallies afterwards and basically hide because the entire establishment is on board with the message including the unethical media.

Biden was a dead man walking in February. Though he still has the face of a dead man, the Chinese virus has propped up their campaigns.

 

[NorthDallas40]

Stressed, huh? I understand.

I'm accurately describing what the probabilities are right now without any partisan spin. There is a lot of good data for Biden, but Trump also has a good chance because of the EC advantage he has. If this was a popular vote election, he'd have a very small (but still real) chance.

In binary events, if the least likely event has a 10 -15% chance of happening, that is a pretty good chance. Three straight heads is 12.5%.

There is a psychological component here, too. As anyone who has lost a large poker pot to someone who had a 5% chance of beating your hand on the river can attest, people tend to remember the long shot losses and wins and forget all the times the probabilities did what they usually do.

This is about the only post you’ve made on the topic that warrants any merit. Due to the EC alone extrapolating a singular popularity poll even with a decent MoE is meaningless. Period full stop. The only relevant method is to conduct 50 separate in state popularity polls and apply the EC weighting.

But what have we heard for the last six months?

The thing that muddies the water is that people pay too much attention to national polling.

National polling really has no relationship to the state races, so they are useless already, but are good for what they are meant for: to fill news blocks and start arguments/conversations.

If I output on all the national data crosstabs from all polls, average them, and push it back into the Cook Political's Swingometer, I'd get a Biden landslide. But only because the national polls don't have the granular focus of a good state poll. I went ahead and did it with an (expected) 4% turnout boost over 2016.

View attachment 319320

Trump's number here is 4-8 million short of his final tally I'd say.

 

[Carl Pickens]

Here ya go liberal dolts....

 

[Rifleman]

I know that first part. Basically just says the final score could be 53-38 or 43-48. Not exactly earth shattering and why I always say polls are just a reflection and not very accurate.
What I do not know is how the conficence level factors. Say it is 95. That would mean that 95% of the times, the end result could be within 53-38.

It is for each number's range, so a 5% chance each number is out of range on the day the poll is released. That chance could rise every day poll ages if people are changing their minds at the last minute.

Polls should probably just give their ranges instead of their median, but they would also get less press coverage for doing that.

How they handle undecides or build their voters databases can be wild too. One pollster famously won't include you in their sample if you didn't vote in a prior election, even if you attest you have already voted in the current election. Nuts!

 

[VolnJC]

Is this your final answer?

Lol probably not

 

[Orangeburst]

Polls should probably just give their ranges instead of their median, but they would also get less press coverage for doing that.

IOW, garbage. If it is within 10 points, it does not tell us squat in a tight election. We are 95% sure Biden will win by 10 or lose by 5.

 

[1972 Grad]

Did you major in psychology?

Nope. That is what the girls used to say when you stuck your hand in their pants.

 

[Redleg68]

Yeah... so is a smooth transition of power from one party to the other. A lot of democratic traditions are about to be trampled by Trump. I doubt he even attends Biden's inauguration.

Wasn't there several high ranking democrats that refused to attend Trumps inauguration? Neither party can pretend that they are above the other. Move the Capital to the middle of a corn field somewhere in the midwest. Allow no lobbyist to follow,. put term limits on everyone of them, hold the media accountable to accuracy or they lose their right to media channels and just maybe our great country,and yes it is a great country, can survive as we know it for another 250 years.

 

[NorthDallas40]

Oh and for those libs bitching about the EC you see all that talk about four votes here, single district votes there, four votes for some small state? All gone with a popular vote.

It would come down to a list of:

• New York City, NY. Population: 8,601,186
• Los Angeles, CA. Population: 4,057,841
• Chicago, IL. Population: 2,679,044
• Houston, TX. Population: 2,359,480
• Phoenix, AZ. Population: 1,711,356
• Philadelphia, PA. Population: 1,576,596
• San Antonio, TX. Population: 1,565,929

The word “state” would never come up.

 

[Orangeburst]

Oh and for those libs bitching about the EC you see all that talk about four votes here, single district votes there, four votes for some small state? All gone with a popular vote.

It would come down to a list of:

• New York City, NY. Population: 8,601,186
• Los Angeles, CA. Population: 4,057,841
• Chicago, IL. Population: 2,679,044
• Houston, TX. Population: 2,359,480
• Phoenix, AZ. Population: 1,711,356
• Philadelphia, PA. Population: 1,576,596
• San Antonio, TX. Population: 1,565,929

The word “state” would never come up.

Dallas on his A Game today.

 

[Rifleman]

Hearing that many registered Dems in PA....union and blue collar households.. are voting Trump..some that even voted Clinton in 16...gives me some hope..still stand by whoever wins PA wins election View attachment 319314

There are 70% Democratic registration counties in PA that Trump won by 40 points in 2016. There are lifelong Republicans in the suburbs that are lost to him. That's just Pennsylvania.

Going to be fun to watch. We can all make out best guess, but people who can really read this crazy state tend to make a lot of money.

I have a friend in Pittsburgh who canvassed for Obama in 2008 in a semi-rural SW PA precinct. She called me one night so confused, saying about 1 in 3 voters she encountered actually used the "n-word" to refer to Obama and all those voters told her they were solid Obama. She thought they were trolling her. I said, maybe not, and sure enough Obama won that precinct going away.

 

[hog88]

Because there is only one of the two who I think believes in instilling values, like in this story:

What would my Mom think of that?"

In a race, (see picture), athlete Abel Mutai representing Kenya, was just a few feet from the finish line, but he was confused with the signage & stopped thinking he had completed the race. The Spanish athlete, Ivan Fernandez was right behind him & realizing what was happening, he started shouting at the Kenyan for him to continue running; but Mutai didn't know Spanish didn't understand. Then the Spanish pushed him to victory.

A journalist asked Ivan, "Why did you do that?"

Ivan replied, "My dream is that someday we can have a kind of community life".

The journalist insisted "But why did you let the Kenyan win?"

Ivan replied, "I didn't let him win, he was going to win".

The journalist insisted again, "But you could have won!"

Ivan looked at him & replied," But what would be the merit of my victory? What would be the honor of that medal?

What would my Mom think of that?"

Values are transmitted from generation to generation.

What values are we teaching our children?

Let us not teach our kids the wrong ways & means to WIN

View attachment 319265

Are you freeking serious? You think Biden would do something like that? Come on man.

 

[hog88]

It’s insane to say Joe Biden, over his lifetime has been more virtuous than trump? Now I’m convinced you’re simple.

I almost think you believe that.

 

[0nelilreb]

Guess that explains the sore throat.

Is that why Joe sounded like he was making sounds instead of words at his rally the other day ? It sounded just like he had his mouth full .

 

[NorthDallas40]

I almost think you believe that.

I absolutely believe he thinks that TDS warps the mind.

 

[Rifleman]

IOW, garbage. If it is within 10 points, it does not tell us squat in a tight election. We are 95% sure Biden will win by 10 or lose by 5.

That is the issue with large MOE polling. If you can't survey enough people, you aren't telling us anything we don't know.

 

[volinbham]

Johnny Rotten with some hard truths

Johnny Rotten on Endorsing Donny "Rotten" Trump - The One w/ Greg Gutfeld - Omny.fm

 

[NorthDallas40]

That is the issue with large MOE polling. If you can't survey enough people, you aren't telling us anything we don't know.

We agree!

 

[NorthDallas40]

Johnny Rotten with some hard truths

Johnny Rotten on Endorsing Donny "Rotten" Trump - The One w/ Greg Gutfeld - Omny.fm

I thought he was dead.

 

[Rifleman]

This is about the only post you’ve made on the topic that warrants any merit. Due to the EC alone extrapolating a singular popularity poll even with a decent MoE is meaningless. Period full stop. The only relevant method is to conduct 50 separate in state popularity polls and apply the EC weighting.

But what have we heard for the last six months?

Sounds like we are in agreement. ¯\_(ツ)_/¯

Go Big Orange!!!

 

[NorthDallas40]

Sounds like we are in agreement. ¯\_(ツ)_/¯

Go Big Orange!!!

We’ve got a solid shot today of not losing. But I’m gonna wait till around 11:30PM ET to make sure we don’t get another L hung on our record out of consistency.

 

[Orangeburst]