2020 Presidential Race

#60,752
#60,752
Boston Vol said:
And I don’t know why you have this belief that a Trump win isn’t or shouldn’t be possible based on the polls. Every state that he needs to win is within the margin of error with the exception of Pennsylvania. Which is just a shade outside the margin of error. Biden is the favorite. He should win. But there is a legitimate pathway to 269/270 for Trump without the polls being wrong.
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Per the average of all polls on Nate Silver's FiveThirtyEight site (and I use them, because Silver is not a pollster himself, but he is a respected statistician who analyzes polls - and he uses a much larger sample size than Real Clear Politics):

Michigan
Joe Biden (D) ............. 51.4% (plus 8.7)
Donald Trump (R) .... 42.7%

Minnesota
Joe Biden (D) .............. 50.4% (plus 8.4)
Donald Trump (R) ..... 42.0%

Pennsylvania
Joe Biden (D) ............... 50.1% (plus 5.1)
Donald Trump (R) ...... 45.0%

Wisconsin
Joe Biden (D) ................ 51.9% (plus 8.6)
Donald Trump (R) ....... 43.3%

There is not a path to 270 electoral college votes for Donald Trump without winning at least one of these 4 states. Biden's lead has been consistently outside the 4.5% margin of error in these states, over the last month of the campaign, and unlike Hillary Clinton in 2016, Biden has been consistently polling over 50% for over a month now in these states.
 
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#60,755
#60,755
BowlBrother85 said:
Per the average of all polls on Nate Silver's FiveThirtyEight site (and I use them, because Silver is not a pollster himself, but he is a respected statistician who analyzes polls - and he uses a much larger sample size than Real Clear Politics):

Michigan
Joe Biden (D) ............. 51.4% (plus 8.7)
Donald Trump (R) .... 42.7%

Minnesota
Joe Biden (D) .............. 50.4% (plus 8.4)
Donald Trump (R) ..... 42.0%

Pennsylvania
Joe Biden (D) ............... 50.1% (plus 5.1)
Donald Trump (R) ...... 45.0%

Wisconsin
Joe Biden (D) ................ 51.9% (plus 8.6)
Donald Trump (R) ....... 43.3%

There is not a path to 270 electoral college votes for Donald Trump without winning at least one of these 4 states. Biden's lead has been consistently outside the 4.5% margin of error in these states, over the last month of the campaign.
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No there’s not a pathway for Trump without one of those states. However do you notice a difference in Pennsylvania compared to the rest of the three? Again a Trump win in Pennsylvania would not be shocking. Therefore he has a legitimate pathway to 270.
 
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#60,757
#60,757
Boston Vol said:
No there’s not a pathway for Trump without one of those states. However do you notice a difference in Pennsylvania compared to the rest of the three? Again a Trump win in Pennsylvania would not be shocking. Therefore he has a legitimate pathway to 270.
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If he wins Pennsylvania? Yes, Trump has a chance. I think the other 3 have gotten away from him in the last month. However, if he does win Pennsylvania but loses the other 3... then he would also have to hold on to Florida and North Carolina... and you also have some uncertainty about Georgia.

Biden has so many more scenarios that lead to 270 than Trump does.
 
#60,759
#60,759
BowlBrother85 said:
If he wins Pennsylvania? Yes, Trump has a chance. I think the other 3 have gotten away from him in the last month. However, if he does win Pennsylvania but loses the other 3... then he would also have to hold on to Florida and North Carolina... and you also have some uncertainty about Georgia.

Biden has so many more scenarios that lead to 270 than Trump does.
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I tend to believe the closest states will largely swing the same way. So I totally get the sentiment that Trump is more likely to win a close race, while Biden is more likely to win in a landslide.

Gun to my head, I would say Biden is more likely to win, but I would have said the same thing about Clinton in 2016.
 
#60,761
#60,761
Orangeburst said:
You know your stuff....Question, but not sure how to word it.

If the MOE is 5% and Biden has a 5 point lead (48-43), is that not the same as Trump possibly leading 48-43 when accounting for sampling error? The confidence factor includes the MOE as well doesn't it?

Second question. How does one determine MoE? There is obviously a MOE within a MOE..lol
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Yeah, if a poll has a 5% margin of error (which is simply the the output of one or more variance equations for most pollsters and larger data sets get smaller margins) and reads

Vols 48%
Bama 43%

What it really means is that there is a 95% or thereabouts chance that the final result will be in these ranges.

Vols 53% <--> 43%
Bama 48% <--> 38

AND keep in mind that there is generally a 5% or thereabouts chance of "LOL, our bad".

AND even if accurate this polling was the case in the near past, when the poll was in the field, and a lot can change in a few days.

The final aggregate state polls would be pretty good in a normal year.

But another caveat there, just as with exit polls, is that the polls only record a voter's intent. If I mailed my ballot 3 weeks ago for Biden, but it never shows up, or gets tossed because I didn't follow a required step, then my reported intent won't match my real world outcome. There could be a lot of that, but will affect both sides.
 
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#60,768
#60,768
tvolsfan said:
I tend to believe the closest states will largely swing the same way. So I totally get the sentiment that Trump is more likely to win a close race, while Biden is more likely to win in a landslide.

Gun to my head, I would say Biden is more likely to win, but I would have said the same thing about Clinton in 2016.
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I thought Clinton would win too... but the polls were trending in Trump's favor the week before the election. I'm not seeing that this time. There are also a couple of wild cards in Arizona and Iowa, which were not in play last time.
 
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#60,769
#60,769
Rifleman said:
Yeah, if a poll has a 5% margin of error (which is simply the the output of one or more variance equations for most pollsters and larger data sets get smaller margins) and reads

Vols 48%
Bama 43%

What it really means is that there is a 95% or thereabouts chance that the final result will be in these ranges.

Vols 53% <--> 43%
Bama 48% <--> 38

AND keep in mind that there is generally a 5% or thereabouts chance of "LOL, our bad".

AND even if accurate this polling was the case in the near past, when the poll was in the field, and a lot can change in a few days.

The final aggregate state polls would be pretty good in a normal year.

But another caveat there, just as with exit polls, is that the polls only record a voter's intent. If I mailed my ballot 3 weeks ago for Biden, but it never shows up, or gets tossed because I didn't follow a required step, then my reported intent won't match my real world outcome. There could be a lot of that, but will affect both sides.
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I know that first part. Basically just says the final score could be 53-38 or 43-48. Not exactly earth shattering and why I always say polls are just a reflection and not very accurate.
What I do not know is how the conficence level factors. Say it is 95. That would mean that 95% of the times, the end result could be within 53-38.
 
#60,770
#60,770
NorthDallas40 said:
Struck a cord eh?
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No, it’s just clear this discussion is beyond your understanding. Rifleman has been explaining this for weeks and has been consistent. You can see from his interactions that people are learning and getting a better understanding of polling and what they tell us about the likely outcomes, even if they don’t agree about the likely outcomes or share his political views.

You just respond with silly bull**** when you see something you don’t like, which is often.
 
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#60,772
#60,772
Orangeburst said:
I know that first part. Basically just says the final score could be 53-38 or 43-48. Not exactly earth shattering and why I always say polls are just a reflection and not very accurate.
What I do not know is how the conficence level factors. Say it is 95. That would mean that 95% of the times, the end result could be within 53-38.
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It’s less like saying 95 percent of the time the result will be in this range and more like saying we are 95 percent confident the true result is in this range. Not sure if that just makes it more confusing.
 
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#60,773
#60,773
tvolsfan said:
No, it’s just clear this discussion is beyond your understanding. Rifleman has been explaining this for weeks and has been consistent. You can see from his interactions that people are learning and getting a better understanding of polling and what they tell us about the likely outcomes.

You just respond with silly bull**** when you see something you don’t like, which is often.
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Look Cletus many of us, myself included, look at these silly ass polls each time they come out from a knowledge base of probability and statistics and didn’t need a primer. There is a clear agenda driven disconnect in any poll giving a wide popularity margin for Biden outside of the population centers. And my comments stand MoE is only trending on both sides of the discussion now that it’s coming to Election Day and people are setting up their backpedaling stance. If you can’t see that or don’t want to acknowledge that I don’t really care.
 
#60,774
#60,774
NorthDallas40 said:
Look Cletus many of us, myself included, look at these silly ass polls each time they come out from a knowledge base of probability and statistics and didn’t need a primer. There is a clear agenda driven disconnect in any poll giving a wide popularity margin for Biden outside of the population centers. And my comments stand MoE is only trending on both sides of the discussion now that it’s coming to Election Day and people are setting up their backpedaling stance. If you can’t see that or don’t want to acknowledge that I don’t really care.
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Well I stand corrected, you’re clearly bringing a lot to the discussion.
 
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