2021 Target List

[Jack Burton]

I agree with you about Crean. Always have liked him and believe he will win at Georgia, but it will take some time. That program has been so neglected and they really should be a sleeping giant based solely on the talent available in a 50 mile radius of ATL.

Agreed. I don’t think their fans realize the full potential of the program. They might need an arena upgrade if they wanted to get real serious though.

 

[walkenvol]

Their arena sucked 35 years ago when I attended a game there. Hard to believe they’ve stuck with it

 

[cncchris33]

On a team that went 16-16 they lost 6 of their Top 8 players, and add 1 Top 100 (barely) player in the 2020 class, I wouldn’t expect them to be very good this year either. Maybe he kills it with the 2021 class but right now I don’t see any reason to think their trajectory is on an upward climb.

I mean, what makes Crean's 3rd season all that different than Barnes's 2nd season?

Barnes entered his 2nd season at Tennessee coming off of a 15-19 season having lost 4 of his top 5 players, and had a pretty unheralded recruiting class coming in whose top player was ranked #147. Of course, we know what happened. He and his staff coached and developed those guys into one of the most successful classes in school history, but he still only went 16-16 their first year.

I'm not necessarily predicting that kind of fortuitous turnaround for UGA by 2021-22, but I believe in Crean as a coach, so would it completely shock me? No, we saw it happen at Tennessee. And we saw them build on the success of that class and create a legitimate national program. Georgia sits right in the middle of one of the hottest recruiting beds in the country. So, with such fertile recruiting grounds and Crean being a more than capable coach, I believe he can win there. Like I said in my original post, though, it will take some time, just like it took Barnes some time at Tennessee. The measure for success at either school doesn't have to mirror the other, like for like, though. As long as Crean shows continued improvement, he will be given time at a place like UGA, where basketball is second fiddle. Mark Fox was given 9 years and only made two NCAATs.

 

[cncchris33]

Agreed. I don’t think their fans realize the full potential of the program. They might need an arena upgrade if they wanted to get real serious though.

It was renovated right after TBA was back about 10 years ago. But I think the larger point that you are alluding to is that it may be time for them to get financially serious about basketball. Right now, aside from hiring a proven coach in Crean, basketball is an afterthought at UGA, much like it was at Auburn 10 years ago, and at Tennessee 25-30 years ago under Dickey.

They are absolutely capable of having a competitive program with some financial investment in the program, the facilities, and in promotion.

 

[bleedingTNorange]

Agreed. I don’t think their fans realize the full potential of the program. They might need an arena upgrade if they wanted to get real serious though.

I used to think similarly, but from what I gathered in the last 30 years they’ve had...

9/30 NCAAT appearances
3 back to back trips to NCAAT

There is talent all around, but maybe there’s something more to it...does the AD not care about hoops? No commitment? Area kids want to leave the state?

 

[bleedingTNorange]

I mean, what makes Crean's 3rd season all that different than Barnes's 2nd season?

Barnes entered his 2nd season at Tennessee coming off of a 15-19 season having lost 4 of his top 5 players, and had a pretty unheralded recruiting class coming in whose top player was ranked #147. Of course, we know what happened. He and his staff coached and developed those guys into one of the most successful classes in school history, but he still only went 16-16 their first year.

I'm not necessarily predicting that kind of fortuitous turnaround for UGA by 2021-22, but I believe in Crean as a coach, so would it completely shock me? No, we saw it happen at Tennessee. And we saw them build on the success of that class and create a legitimate national program. Georgia sits right in the middle of one of the hottest recruiting beds in the country. So, with such fertile recruiting grounds and Crean being a more than capable coach, I believe he can win there. Like I said in my original post, though, it will take some time, just like it took Barnes some time at Tennessee. The measure for success at either school doesn't have to mirror the other, like for like, though. As long as Crean shows continued improvement, he will be given time at a place like UGA, where basketball is second fiddle. Mark Fox was given 9 years and only made two NCAATs.

The difference is exactly that, 1 was Year 2, the other Year 3...if Barnes Year 3 went 15-16 you don’t think fans would’ve been ready to run him off? If Barnes Year 3 team returned only 6/8 rotational players you think fans would’ve had optimism? Instead the returned almost the entire squad and they were very competitive with that squad the year prior in many games against ranked opponents.

Call me skeptical, but not sure I see UGA being better this year after losing their 4 best players and 6/8, one of which being a Top 3 NBA pick...they have nobody even close to that in Thai roster.

 

[TheMookieMonster]

I think Georgia can "get serious" about their program, but the question is what level does "get serious" bring you to? I'm not entirely sure Georgia, even if they take the program seriously, will ever be a perennial SEC title contender or someone to be taken seriously on the national stage.

As the SEC gets better top to bottom, Georgia is going to struggle to be better than maybe slightly above average. I think that Crean can get them to occasional Top 3-4 finishes, but as long as Tennessee, Kentucky, Auburn, Florida, Arkansas, and LSU are devoting the same effort/energy/resources into their program all 6 of those programs should on average finish above Georgia. They are just historically better basketball programs with better facilities and better name recognition in basketball.

 

[cncchris33]

The difference is exactly that, 1 was Year 2, the other Year 3...if Barnes Year 3 went 15-16 you don’t think fans would’ve been ready to run him off? If Barnes Year 3 team returned only 6/8 rotational players you think fans would’ve had optimism? Instead the returned almost the entire squad and they were very competitive with that squad the year prior in many games against ranked opponents.

Call me skeptical, but not sure I see UGA being better this year after losing their 4 best players and 6/8, one of which being a Top 3 NBA pick...they have nobody even close to that in Thai roster.

Again, you keep trying to compare Tennessee and Georgia, like for like. Tennessee cares more about basketball. They are more financially invested in basketball. The fans are more passionate about basketball and support basketball more. The two are not apples to apples, right now. My point is that they have the potential to be. In fact, I think Georgia could arguably be a better program if they tried to be.

In the spirit of that, I dont think the one year difference matters at all. Like I said, they gave Mark Fox nine years to produce exactly two NCAAT appearances.

And to your point, I agree...UGA likely will not be better this year, but they could be next year when they will return a large nucleus of their team. At Tennessee, waiting that long for a winning product might have had fans calling for Barnes's head. People were calling for it after year 1 and 2, anyway. At UGA, I think Crean will be given a minimum of 5 years to have that team in or on the verge of the NCAAT.

Quite honestly, it seems like you are trying to manufacture a debate where one doesn't really exist. I haven't seen one person that believes in the idea of Crean eventually being a potential success at UGA also claiming that Georgia is going to be better this year than they were last year, yet your argument seems to center on that perception.

 

[cncchris33]

I think Georgia can "get serious" about their program, but the question is what level does "get serious" bring you to? I'm not entirely sure Georgia, even if they take the program seriously, will ever be a perennial SEC title contender or someone to be taken seriously on the national stage.

As the SEC gets better top to bottom, Georgia is going to struggle to be better than maybe slightly above average. I think that Crean can get them to occasional Top 3-4 finishes, but as long as Tennessee, Kentucky, Auburn, Florida, Arkansas, and LSU are devoting the same effort/energy/resources into their program all 6 of those programs should on average finish above Georgia. They are just historically better basketball programs with better facilities and better name recognition in basketball.

You bring up a great point, though likely not the one you were trying to.

You mentioned Florida basketball as being a team in that group that has deeper history, better facilities, and better name recognition. Florida basketball has exactly 20 years of any of that. Prior to 2000, Florida's basketball resume looked eerily similar to Georgia's. A football school with 1 Final Four, and a couple S16s in their history. A program that was generally neglected because football is king in the south. They hired a young, unproven coach from Marshall University in 1996 with a career record of 35-20.

The rest, as they say, is Florida basketball's history. With Billy Donovan's success came a greater fan following, which brought more financial support, which brought more success on the court, which brought more name recognition, and more success, and eventually the perfect recipe for back to back national titles. If you had told a Florida basketball fan in 1996 (assuming you could find one) what would happen 10 years later, they'd have laughed you out of the building.

Why can't that be Georgia if everything falls their way? What if Billy Donovan had gone to UGA in 1996? What inherent advantage did Florida have over Georgia? Not location, not recruiting base, not tradition, not name recognition, not support.

 

[TheMookieMonster]

You bring up a great point, though likely not the one you were trying to.

You mentioned Florida basketball as being a team in that group that has deeper history, better facilities, and better name recognition. Florida basketball has exactly 20 years of any of that. Prior to 2000, Florida's basketball resume looked eerily similar to Georgia's. A football school with 1 Final Four, and a couple S16s in their history. A program that was generally neglected because football is king in the south. They hired a young, unproven coach from Marshall University in 1996 with a career record of 35-20.

The rest, as they say, is Florida basketball's history. With Billy Donovan's success came a greater fan following, which brought more financial support, which brought more success on the court, which brought more name recognition, and more success, and eventually the perfect recipe for back to back national titles. If you had told a Florida basketball fan in 1996 (assuming you could find one) what would happen 10 years later, they'd have laughed you out of the building.

Why can't that be Georgia if everything falls their way? What if Billy Donovan had gone to UGA in 1996? What inherent advantage did Florida have over Georgia? Not location, not recruiting base, not tradition, not name recognition, not support.

I mean, fair point, but 20 years isn’t exactly that short of a time frame. Florida has come to prominence over the last two decades or so, and yeah I guess I shouldn’t say that Georgia will never be good because I’m not going to live forever, but I don’t foresee a situation in my lifetime where Georgia basketball reaches the heights of Kentucky or Florida.

The SEC is seeing a renaissance of sorts in basketball with quality coaches from all corners coming in to revive programs. I don’t see the opening. You could make the same case for Alabama or Ole Miss, both programs with money and influence and quality coaches. I just think if we’re being realistic it’s the six core programs I mentioned that if given the proper attention should historically run the conference.

You will occasionally get a year where an Alabama or an Ole Miss or maybe even Georgia swings in and makes some noise, but overall there is only so much talent to go around. I also just don’t think Georgia will ever care about basketball. Personal opinion.

 

[cncchris33]

I mean, fair point, but 20 years isn’t exactly that short of a time frame. Florida has come to prominence over the last two decades or so, and yeah I guess I shouldn’t say that Georgia will never be good because I’m not going to live forever, but I don’t foresee a situation in my lifetime where Georgia basketball reaches the heights of Kentucky or Florida.

The SEC is seeing a renaissance of sorts in basketball with quality coaches from all corners coming in to revive programs. I don’t see the opening. You could make the same case for Alabama or Ole Miss, both programs with money and influence and quality coaches. I just think if we’re being realistic it’s the six core programs I mentioned that if given the proper attention should historically run the conference.

You will occasionally get a year where an Alabama or an Ole Miss or maybe even Georgia swings in and makes some noise, but overall there is only so much talent to go around. I also just don’t think Georgia will ever care about basketball. Personal opinion.

They may not ever care about basketball, but that is the very crux of my argument. If they ever decided to care about it, I think there is only the issue of hiring the right coach at the right time to make them into what Florida has become. For some reason, you seem much more bearish on that idea, but Florida has literally no advantage over Georgia in terms of any of the key program indicators that you previously mentioned. 20 years out of 105 years as a program is a fraction of time, especially lumped altogether on one end of the timeline.

Vanderbilt was once one of the most feared college football teams in the SEC (previous versions). Robert Neyland was hired at Tennessee to "beat Vanderbilt", but nobody remembers or recognizes Vanderbilt's tradition, history, or the fact that they started 268-77 as a program or their 14 conference championships. And that was over a 43 year span.

I'm just saying that if it can happen in Gainesville, it can happen in Athens. UGA's campus sits 50 miles from one of the greatest recruiting territories in the country. Will it ever happen? That, I dont know.

 

[bleedingTNorange]

Again, you keep trying to compare Tennessee and Georgia, like for like. Tennessee cares more about basketball. They are more financially invested in basketball. The fans are more passionate about basketball and support basketball more. The two are not apples to apples, right now. My point is that they have the potential to be. In fact, I think Georgia could arguably be a better program if they tried to be.

In the spirit of that, I dont think the one year difference matters at all. Like I said, they gave Mark Fox nine years to produce exactly two NCAAT appearances.

And to your point, I agree...UGA likely will not be better this year, but they could be next year when they will return a large nucleus of their team. At Tennessee, waiting that long for a winning product might have had fans calling for Barnes's head. People were calling for it after year 1 and 2, anyway. At UGA, I think Crean will be given a minimum of 5 years to have that team in or on the verge of the NCAAT.

Quite honestly, it seems like you are trying to manufacture a debate where one doesn't really exist. I haven't seen one person that believes in the idea of Crean eventually being a potential success at UGA also claiming that Georgia is going to be better this year than they were last year, yet your argument seems to center on that perception.

It seems like you and Z are touting Crean as a really good coach because of what he’s done at Indiana, and then stating that maybe Year 4 or 5 he will have UGA as relevant, that’s all I disagreed with. I’m not debating how long UGA will give him, that doesn’t matter much to me, the point was about how successful he is/has been at UGA, and their trajectory which I don’t feel anyone can say with confidence is clearly trending upwards.

This started because Z was saying it shouldn't surprise folks Crean may land Smith or other guys, that he’s a good coach, and that his resume stacked up with anyone in the SEC...I simply stated at some point you’ve got to prove that at your new school imo. Doesn’t mean much what he did 9-10 years ago a different school, much like what Barnes did 10 years ago at Texas isn’t really relevant unless he started winning at Tennessee too.

 

[cncchris33]

It seems like you and Z are touting Crean as a really good coach because of what he’s done at Indiana, and then stating that maybe Year 4 or 5 he will have UGA as relevant, that’s all I disagreed with. I’m not debating how long UGA will give him, that doesn’t matter much to me, the point was about how successful he is/has been at UGA, and their trajectory which I don’t feel anyone can say with confidence is clearly trending upwards.

This started because Z was saying it shouldn't surprise folks Crean may land Smith or other guys, that he’s a good coach, and that his resume stacked up with anyone in the SEC...I simply stated at some point you’ve got to prove that at your new school imo. Doesn’t mean much what he did 9-10 years ago a different school, much like what Barnes did 10 years ago at Texas isn’t really relevant unless he started winning at Tennessee too.

This is my post in which you initially replied...

I agree with you about Crean. Always have liked him and believe he will win at Georgia, but it will take some time. That program has been so neglected and they really should be a sleeping giant based solely on the talent available in a 50 mile radius of ATL.

I didn't argue about how successful he's been, so far, at UGA.
I didn't argue that he is trending upward, as of now, as a program.
I didn't argue about his resume over the past 10 seasons.

It just seems like you are continuing to take exception with Z's opinion and arguing your point with him vicariously thru me.

 

[TheMookieMonster]

They may not ever care about basketball, but that is the very crux of my argument. If they ever decided to care about it, I think there is only the issue of hiring the right coach at the right time to make them into what Florida has become. For some reason, you seem much more bearish on that idea, but Florida has literally no advantage over Georgia in terms of any of the key program indicators that you previously mentioned. 20 years out of 105 years as a program is a fraction of time, especially lumped altogether on one end of the timeline.

Vanderbilt was once one of the most feared college football teams in the SEC (previous versions). Robert Neyland was hired at Tennessee to "beat Vanderbilt", but nobody remembers or recognizes Vanderbilt's tradition, history, or the fact that they started 268-77 as a program or their 14 conference championships. And that was over a 43 year span.

I'm just saying that if it can happen in Gainesville, it can happen in Athens. UGA's campus sits 50 miles from one of the greatest recruiting territories in the country. Will it ever happen? That, I dont know.

Point taken. I'm just not bullish on Georgia, but that's a personal preference I suppose. I understand that there isn't anything preventing them from achieving the same heights in basketball similar to Florida. It's just my feeling that Georgia is unlikely to do so.

I guess most of this boils down to just personal opinion about the strengths of the University of Florida over say the University of Georgia. There may not be any objective and tangible things to refer to but I struggle to see a path where recruits would start to flock to Athens, Georgia at the same time other programs in the SEC are starting to take basketball seriously as well. We're all recruiting and combatting for the same athletes year in and year out and with Arkansas and Alabama and Ole Miss looking to turn things around at the same time as Georgia, the only pitch I can see being made to attract someone to UGA over other programs would be "stay close to home", which again as a matter of personal opinion I think is an overrated pitch when you have programs like Auburn that are not much further away and is a far superior program with a far better coach.

 

[VolFreakJosh]

Tom Crean may be a pretty good guy and somewhat knowledgeable at the game but I haven’t seen any indication that he’ll be able to bring Georgia to a whole another level like Barnes has here at Tennessee.

If you’re a recruit and you’re looking at both coaches in terms of development, how many are going to say they rather play for Crean than Rick Barnes?

 

[cncchris33]

Point taken. I'm just not bullish on Georgia, but that's a personal preference I suppose. I understand that there isn't anything preventing them from achieving the same heights in basketball similar to Florida. It's just my feeling that Georgia is unlikely to do so.

I guess most of this boils down to just personal opinion about the strengths of the University of Florida over say the University of Georgia. There may not be any objective and tangible things to refer to but I struggle to see a path where recruits would start to flock to Athens, Georgia at the same time other programs in the SEC are starting to take basketball seriously as well. We're all recruiting and combatting for the same athletes year in and year out and with Arkansas and Alabama and Ole Miss looking to turn things around at the same time as Georgia, the only pitch I can see being made to attract someone to UGA over other programs would be "stay close to home", which again as a matter of personal opinion I think is an overrated pitch when you have programs like Auburn that are not much further away and is a far superior program with a far better coach.

Fair point. I just wanted to show that it isn't unreasonable to believe UGA could be much better than they are. It would require a lot of things going in their favor, but the pieces are there, mainly the recruiting territory. And maybe this isn't the right time to be trying to break into the upper crust of the SEC for a lot of the reasons you mentioned. It is much more likely that UGA should be a winning program than somewhere like South Carolina, Mississippi, Auburn, or Mississippi State. UGA has infinitely more in their favor than any of those schools to build a winning program if they just cared to do it.

 

[cncchris33]

Tom Crean may be a pretty good guy and somewhat knowledgeable at the game but I haven’t seen any indication that he’ll be able to bring Georgia to a whole another level like Barnes has here at Tennessee.

If you’re a recruit and you’re looking at both coaches in terms of development, how many are going to say they rather play for Crean than Rick Barnes?

Well, Kennedy Chandler had no problem telling Coach K thanks, but no thanks, in favor of Barnes, but I think we can all universally agree that Barnes, while a good guy, developer of talent, and knowledgeable coach, is not in the same tier as Coach K.

You can't look at every recruiting scenario in a vacuum. Recruits are looking for different things. Each case is unique. If I'm a kid from Atlanta looking to play for a winning program and a coach who has an established program and history of developing players at that program, I'm choosing Tennessee over Georgia. If I'm an introvert who is close to my family and wants to be near them, and feel a loyalty to my home state and just want to go somewhere where I will be comfortable, I'd likely choose UGA.

 

[bleedingTNorange]

This is my post in which you initially replied...

I didn't argue about how successful he's been, so far, at UGA.
I didn't argue that he is trending upward, as of now, as a program.
I didn't argue about his resume over the past 10 seasons.

It just seems like you are continuing to take exception with Z's opinion and arguing your point with him vicariously thru me.

Well you did state in your first line you agree with Z about Crean, so I took that to mean you agreed with all points of his posts in regards to Crean.

You also state you believe he will win at UGA (which I assumed meant NCAAT level teams) and although you said it will take some time I took that as retroactively counting...didn’t think you were talking another 2-3 years down the road thus 4-5 years before they sniff the NCAAT as being enough. Mark Fox was in the NCAAT his 2nd year for comparison, I would venture to guess that bought him some good will.

 

[cncchris33]

Well you did state in your first line you agree with Z about Crean, so I took that to mean you agreed with all points of his posts in regards to Crean.

You also state you believe he will win at UGA (which I assumed meant NCAAT level teams) and although you said it will take some time I took that as retroactively counting...didn’t think you were talking another 2-3 years down the road thus 4-5 years before they sniff the NCAAT as being enough. Mark Fox was in the NCAAT his 2nd year for comparison, I would venture to guess that bought him some good will.

No, not universal agreement. Just the portion contained in the post I quoted in which I was just agreeing with his general belief that he thought Crean was a solid coach. And I do believe Crean can win there. I think it may take him 4-5 years, in total to get to that level (NCAAT), and I think he'll be afforded that amount of time to make it happen. Admittedly, he will have to do a lot in the way of development with his incoming class, or knock it out of the park in his 2021 class to hit that mark. I think that 2021-22 is the year he needs to show significant improvement, which would be year 4. If UGA is a .500 team in that season, he will be on the hot seat in year 5, if he gets a 5th season.

 

[bleedingTNorange]

No, not universal agreement. Just the portion contained in the post I quoted in which I was just agreeing with his general belief that he thought Crean was a solid coach. And I do believe Crean can win there. I think it may take him 4-5 years, in total to get to that level (NCAAT), and I think he'll be afforded that amount of time to make it happen. Admittedly, he will have to do a lot in the way of development with his incoming class, or knock it out of the park in his 2021 class to hit that mark. I think that 2021-22 is the year he needs to show significant improvement, which would be year 4. If UGA is a .500 team in that season, he will be on the hot seat in year 5, if he gets a 5th season.

Fair enough. You pointed to Fox getting 9 years but again he made the dance in Year 2, if Crean is ~.500 again this year I personally would think he’d be on the hot seat heading into Year 4, but who knows. Hard time imagining an AD being ok with those results, but as already mentioned UGA doesn’t seem too concerned about basketball.

 

[Volfan1000]

I agree with you about Crean. Always have liked him and believe he will win at Georgia, but it will take some time. That program has been so neglected and they really should be a sleeping giant based solely on the talent available in a 50 mile radius of ATL.

CTC will never be able to lock down the state of Georgia in recruiting and Georgia has not been relevant in SEC basketball since the days of Hugh Durham and Dominique Wilkins in the 80's.

Chandler will be the Peyton Manning of basketball when it comes to recruiting elite players.

 

[cncchris33]

CTC will never be able to lock down the state of Georgia in recruiting and Georgia has not been relevant in SEC basketball since the days of Hugh Durham and Dominique Wilkins in the 80's.

Chandler will be the Peyton Manning of basketball when it comes to recruiting elite players.

To be fair, even UGA football has difficulty locking down the top talent in Georgia. There is just so much to go around.

 

[zjcvols]

Tom Crean may be a pretty good guy and somewhat knowledgeable at the game but I haven’t seen any indication that he’ll be able to bring Georgia to a whole another level like Barnes has here at Tennessee.

If you’re a recruit and you’re looking at both coaches in terms of development, how many are going to say they rather play for Crean than Rick Barnes?

Another whole level at Georgia is just making the tournament consistently. They’ve made the tourney 9/30. Crean can definitely do that IMO. Is he gonna win 30 games or make Final Fours? No of course not. But can they win 20-25 games and make the tourney like 4/5 years with Crean? I think they can eventually.

 

[bleedingTNorange]

Another whole level at Georgia is just making the tournament consistently. They’ve made the tourney 9/30. Crean can definitely do that IMO. Is he gonna win 30 games or make Final Fours? No of course not. But can they win 20-25 games and make the tourney like 4/5 years with Crean? I think they can eventually.

Weren’t you one of the folks early in the Barnes Era saying it shouldn’t take 2-3 years to have a winning team?

 

[zjcvols]

Weren’t you one of the folks early in the Barnes Era saying it shouldn’t take 2-3 years to have a winning team?

No, I said by year 3 Barnes should be making the tournament with his pedigree at Tennessee. Which he did, so wasn’t a big deal. Also UT actually went the same record as Crean in year 2.

Crean probably should get at least one more year if he misses the tourney considering the lack of direction that program has had.