2024 Presidential Race

#54,727
#54,727
Why are you arguing this? Didn’t you say earlier you thought Trump would win?
BowlBrother85 said:
Betting odds are not predictions. You aren't thing of the role that oddsmakers play correctly. It is their job to get equal betting on both sides. Oddsmakers are not forecasting winners and losers.
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#54,728
#54,728
BowlBrother85 said:
It's hard to know that without knowing who is placing the bets. Bookmakers simply open with a line, and then adjust it in accordance with betting behavior. Bookmakers are looking to find the odds that either divide the bettors or stops them from playing altogether. In the end, the bettors determine what the odds are; not the bookmaker. That is what any bookmaker will tell you.
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because it can be gamed doesn't mean it is being gamed.

one game has a 2 point spread - another has a 24 point spread. If you are only looking to predict which team will win (not the spread) the latter game is easier to predict the winner.

people confuse the spread in the betting pools with polling data.
 
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#54,730
#54,730
@BowlBrother85 they mean nothing but are 10-1 in the last 11 presidential elections. Again the one time wrong? 2016

www.newsweek.com

How accurate are betting odds at predicting elections?

Betting odds can influence people's expectations about the result of the 2024 election, but how accurate have they been in the past?
www.newsweek.com www.newsweek.com

According to aggregates by Bookmakers Review, betting odds have accurately predicted several of the most recent elections, with 77 percent of the expected candidates winning over the last 35 years.

In the 11 presidential elections since 1980, the only race where the winning candidate had worse odds than the losing candidate was in 2016, where both the betting markets and conventional polling failed to predict a Trump win.
 
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#54,732
#54,732
volinbham said:
different things - the 29 is how many times a vote was entered associated with a particular voter. (act of voting)

once entered it's impossible to "find" that particular vote to invalidate it (content of the vote)
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I also thought each ballot had a number identifer.
 
#54,734
#54,734
LSU-SIU said:
Wait till Nash gets mad because someone says Chicago is full of rats. 🤣

Chicago Tops 'Rattiest Cities' List For Decade As Other Democrat-Run Metros Plagued With Disgusting Rats | ZeroHedge

2024’s Most Rat-Infested Cities in America | Orkin

Nash will probably say... "rats aren't so bad once you get to know them". I remember that time he was trying to convince me Haitians don't eat cats. I'm like I have been there, if cats are the worst thing they are eating you're probably doing pretty good. 🤣
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Rats have no preference on location you Bozo 🤣🤣🤣🤣

You're a dumbfounded troll😅 The next time you post anything remotely clever will be a first. No one but dumbasses think your posts are funny about calling anyone mentally ill who disagrees with you. Try some new material 👍
 
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#54,738
#54,738
CobbVol said:
I also thought each ballot had a number identifer.
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sounds like in the Michigan system, once it is added to the vote tabulation (entered) there is no longer any identification.

maybe with paper ballots you could trace a ballot to a voter (assuming the ballots have an identifier - I think ours do in Alabama) - might be with electronic voting that doesn't occur so once it's entered you can't
 
#54,739
#54,739
volinbham said:
because it can be gamed doesn't mean it is being gamed.

one game has a 2 point spread - another has a 24 point spread. If you are only looking to predict which team will win (not the spread) the latter game is easier to predict the winner.

people confuse the spread in the betting pools with polling data.
Click to expand...
Right .... I'm obviously not talking about money line bets.

The bettors make the spreads; not bookmakers. I'm not certain who gambles on presidential elections .... but I think it would likely be a narrow demographic.
 
#54,741
#54,741
BowlBrother85 said:
Right .... I'm obviously not talking about money line bets.

The bettors make the spreads; not bookmakers. I'm not certain who gambles on presidential elections .... but I think it would likely be a narrow demographic.
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bettors make the spread too - it's adjusted based on how the money comes in. the principle is the same; a big lead one direction or the other has more predictive power than a narrow one.
 
#54,742
#54,742
BowlBrother85 said:
Right .... I'm obviously not talking about money line bets.

The bettors make the spreads; not bookmakers. I'm not certain who gambles on presidential elections .... but I think it would likely be a narrow demographic.
Click to expand...
Not sure what you mean by bettors making the spread. The first established line on a sports game is set by a handicapper, who analyzes all kinds of data to establish the opening line. From there it is adjusted by the handicappers based on the trend of bettors
 
#54,743
#54,743
NorthDallas40 said:
@BowlBrother85 they mean nothing but are 10-1 in the last 11 presidential elections. Again the one time wrong? 2016

www.newsweek.com

How accurate are betting odds at predicting elections?

Betting odds can influence people's expectations about the result of the 2024 election, but how accurate have they been in the past?
www.newsweek.com www.newsweek.com

According to aggregates by Bookmakers Review, betting odds have accurately predicted several of the most recent elections, with 77 percent of the expected candidates winning over the last 35 years.

In the 11 presidential elections since 1980, the only race where the winning candidate had worse odds than the losing candidate was in 2016, where both the betting markets and conventional polling failed to predict a Trump win.
Click to expand...
That isn't thinking of the role oddsmakers play correctly. Oddsmakers are never right or wrong.

I have discussed this with sports betting cashiers at the Dawg House Saloon at Resorts World in Las Vegas and Mandalay Bay as well. I'm out there a lot.
 
#54,744
#54,744
volinbham said:
the problem with the apostrophe is that he said supporters('s) "are" garbage. it would be a subject verb disagreement unless he said supporter's is.

the best response would have been to apologize and say I mispoke and did not mean that. The, no you just misunderstood what I actually said excuse is pretty pitiful and doesn't lessen the bad impact
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He wouldn’t even say are or is. The apostrophe would have covered that part. It’s such a pathetic cover by people who lack integrity and self respect
 
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#54,746
#54,746
BernardKingGOAT said:
Not sure what you mean by bettors making the spread. The first established line on a sports game is set by a handicapper, who analyzes all kinds of data to establish the opening line. From there it is adjusted by the handicappers based on the trend of bettors
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I have said that. The opening line is like a jumping off point .... and then it's adjusted based on the wagers.
 
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#54,749
#54,749
BernardKingGOAT said:
Not sure what you mean by bettors making the spread. The first established line on a sports game is set by a handicapper, who analyzes all kinds of data to establish the opening line. From there it is adjusted by the handicappers based on the trend of bettors
Click to expand...

in the betting markets the "spread" is set by the money coming in directly rather than through the bookie intermediary but the principle is the same - trying to balance the money
 
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