'22 SC SF Julian Phillips (Tennessee commit)

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#1,576
johnfnkelly said:
I've watched practically every video on JP on YouTube. Julian is a better basketball player, he's just not comparable to Keon in terms of athleticism. Phillips is also 6'8 with a 7 foot wingspan, so playing above the room isn't exactly difficult. Keon is only 6'4 with a 6'7 wingspan.

Leaping ability/ speed are both big factors in judging athleticism. That's why they're 3/5 of the main drills at the combine.
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Not interested in an endless argument over it. I’ve already conceded, probably unnecessarily, that Keon is the better athlete. I never claimed otherwise. Point being, if Keon is an A+ athlete, Phillips is a B+/A- athlete. The kid is not a stiff by any means, and doesn’t have to match a guy like Keon one for one in athletic traits because of his size and length advantages, which you mentioned in detail. Add to it that Phillips is a significantly better basketball player than Keon from a skills standpoint, as a high school senior, and I think he is equally prepared to make an immediate impact as a freshman.
 
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TheMookieMonster said:
Okay, I was just tossing out hypothetical numbers. I didn’t really extensively research the hypothetical for posing it. My bad. I should have just left it at the fact I think Phillips is a special talent like Chandler rather than throw numbers at the wall which is distracting from the point I was trying to make. That point is simply that I think Phillips has the talent to make a Chandler-type impact on this team.
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I was just curious if those were achievable numbers - wasn't trying to be a jerk. I think if you back down on the assist numbers you'll start getting some '21 comps. Now I think Phillips has the potential to be better than Caleb Houstan, but they're very similar in terms of where they're ranked, height, weight, and position. Houstan was a 10/5/1.5 guy last season for Michigan. I do think JP has a higher ceiling, but aside from stats, he will command attention from defenses, which will free up our other players. Like, no one's going to care if Nkamhoua has the ball on the wing. But they're going to have to close out on Phillips and have someone else watching if he drives.
 
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#1,578
#1,578
TheMookieMonster said:
Okay, I was just tossing out hypothetical numbers. I didn’t really extensively research the hypothetical for posing it. My bad. I should have just left it at the fact I think Phillips is a special talent like Chandler rather than throw numbers at the wall which is distracting from the point I was trying to make. That point is simply that I think Phillips has the talent to make a Chandler-type impact on this team.
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He very well may, but it would seem fair to say that is the exception and the lesser likely of what he likely brings. Given the fact he’s a true freshman, and we know many struggle with Barnes’ demands of them, and that he won’t have the ball in his hands for 30mpg (we aren’t running the offense through him), it would seem quite unlikely his impact is even close to Chandler level from a PPG/APG standpoint. Again that isn’t to poo-poo him, if he was a 25mpg 10ppg 5rpg efficient scorer for us that would be huge imo and a very impactful role. There just aren’t many, like hardly any, off ball freshman scoring 14+ at the P5 level.
 
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#1,580
VolArmy74 said:
Looking back at the top 2 PF each year for the last 10-12 years, there were about 3 busts, several All-American/super star level players and several guys who averaged around 11/5 but generally still were one and dones.
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Phillips isn’t Top 2 on any service though, and is listed as SF on 2/3 services, 1 of which has him as 6th best.
 
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bleedingTNorange said:
He very well may, but it would seem fair to say that is the exception and the lesser likely of what he likely brings. Given the fact he’s a true freshman, and we know many struggle with Barnes’ demands of them, and that he won’t have the ball in his hands for 30mpg (we aren’t running the offense through him), it would seem quite unlikely his impact is even close to Chandler level from a PPG/APG standpoint. Again that isn’t to poo-poo him, if he was a 25mpg 10ppg 5rpg efficient scorer for us that would be huge imo and a very impactful role. There just aren’t many, like hardly any, off ball freshman scoring 14+ at the P5 level.
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Totally fair and valid points. But, for the sake of discussion, because I enjoy this chat, I guess the way I look at it is through the lens of having 31 PPG in production that we lost this off-season and have to replace. We had an elite defense last year, one that will be hard to improve upon because we were near the top of the list. So, we're going to have to find a way to replace those 31 PPG if we want to maintain our championship caliber success. So, where do those points come from?

I'm going to assume we land Akawa and Jefferson, just because those are the only two names with any other chatter right now outside of Phillips. I don't think it is fair to assume either of those guys will come in and make an immediate impact next year. It is more likely they are 2023-2024 contributors. We added Key. So, looking at the roster, where do those 31 PPG come from?

Josiah Jordan-James: 8.0 PPG (2020) to 10.3 PPG (2021)
Santiago Vescovi: 8.7 PPG (2020) to 13.3 PPG (2021)

I think the safe best is that you can expect those two guys to hopefully add 1-2 more points each to those averages after another year of improvement. Key is coming off major surgery and will be taking a step up in level of competition. What is the "safe" bet for him? 7 or 8 PPG? I think we can hope Zakai can make a JJJ like leap and add 2 PPG and become a 10 PPG guy. All of that combined is 14 PPG on the high end.

IMO, Uros is Uros. I expect similar numbers from him. Olivier was an 8.6 PPG guy last year. Can he get to 10.6 PPG? There is your 16 PPG. Still missing 15 points though.

I guess the wildcards here are Aidoo and Maschack. What do those two bring to the table? We don't know.

It's an interesting conversation to have, and I don't know where we ultimately makeup for those 31 PPG we lost, but we'll see how things go.
 
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#1,584
TheMookieMonster said:
Totally fair and valid points. But, for the sake of discussion, because I enjoy this chat, I guess the way I look at it is through the lens of having 31 PPG in production that we lost this off-season and have to replace. We had an elite defense last year, one that will be hard to improve upon because we were near the top of the list. So, we're going to have to find a way to replace those 31 PPG if we want to maintain our championship caliber success. So, where do those points come from?

I'm going to assume we land Akawa and Jefferson, just because those are the only two names with any other chatter right now outside of Phillips. I don't think it is fair to assume either of those guys will come in and make an immediate impact next year. It is more likely they are 2023-2024 contributors. We added Key. So, looking at the roster, where do those 31 PPG come from?

Josiah Jordan-James: 8.0 PPG (2020) to 10.3 PPG (2021)
Santiago Vescovi: 8.7 PPG (2020) to 13.3 PPG (2021)

I think the safe best is that you can expect those two guys to hopefully add 1-2 more points each to those averages after another year of improvement. Key is coming off major surgery and will be taking a step up in level of competition. What is the "safe" bet for him? 7 or 8 PPG? I think we can hope Zakai can make a JJJ like leap and add 2 PPG and become a 10 PPG guy. All of that combined is 14 PPG on the high end.

IMO, Uros is Uros. I expect similar numbers from him. Olivier was an 8.6 PPG guy last year. Can he get to 10.6 PPG? There is your 16 PPG. Still missing 15 points though.

I guess the wildcards here are Aidoo and Maschack. What do those two bring to the table? We don't know.

It's an interesting conversation to have, and I don't know where we ultimately makeup for those 31 PPG we lost, but we'll see how things go.
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The thing is we could score fewer points and still be better, we were HORRIBLE from 2, if those % go up (they need to) and we take a few less 3’s then our PPG goes down but we are way more efficient. Also, you’re taking a blanket PPG average approach, but that negates the games not played aspect, meaning if you add up the below returners you get 48ppg meaning you’re replacing 25.5ppg.

With that said, returners:
Vescovi 13.3
JJJ 10.3
Zeigler 8.8
Nkahmoua 8.6
Uros 4.2
Aidoo 2.1
Mashack 0.7

Incoming:
Key
Jefferson
Edwards
Phillips
Awaka

So going with your 16ppg improvement that means yours just 9ppg away from the previous years average, without factoring Jefferson or Edwards in.
 
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#1,587
bleedingTNorange said:
Yea that’s their composite ranking which has some flaws in their formula that have been discussed here, no service (not even their own), has him that high or at that position.
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They claim it's the best and most unbiased ranking in the industry, and looking back at the high superstar hit rate vs bust rate, I'm inclined to agree.
 
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#1,589
#1,589
Work ethic separates the men from the boys

Work ethic is also my highest concern for Phillips

There are many, many great athletes in the country that can get by on that alone in high school.

If you don’t want to work, don’t come here. We have a culture. It isn’t for everyone.
 
#1,590
#1,590
UneducatedGuess said:
Work ethic separates the men from the boys

Work ethic is also my highest concern for Phillips

There are many, many great athletes in the country that can get by on that alone in high school.

If you don’t want to work, don’t come here. We have a culture. It isn’t for everyone.
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And where is this concern about work ethic coming from? I haven’t read a single source about questionable work ethic.
 
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#1,591
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johnfnkelly said:
Phillips is not in the same neighborhood in athleticism. Keon broke the combine record for standing and max vertical leap, also has the 3rd fastest 3 quarter sprint in the last decade. He's one of the best athletes in the NBA.

Nothing in JP's film suggests he's even close.
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Is it really fair to compare a SG to a PF?

Keon was very athletic but Phillips seems to have more “skills” at this point that NBA teams look for in todays big men.
 
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#1,593
bleedingTNorange said:
If you read it on the internet it must be true!
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The supreme irony of this statement. You're claiming Phillips isn't ranked as highly as I said because of things you've read on the internet from other individual services.

Even though Phillips is #13 overall in Rivals, #13 on ESPN. #14 on On3, which tells me him being 12 on composite is well within reason. Phillips is also #12 overall in the On3 consensus ranking. It would seem you've an agenda, if we even land Phillips, and are pre-making excuses if he doesn't pan out.
 
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#1,594
#1,594
JP is the best either hand shooter (not counting PGs) that I have seen in a long time.
I think he has to be developed at the 3, I do not see him playing PF. Could he play there some, of course. But I do not see the physique for that position as a freshman.
He will absolutely not get the number of minutes KC got as a freshman. (There are a lot more bodies with experience at his position!!!)
He did not shoot a bunch from 3, so it will be interesting to see how confident and accurate his stroke is as a 3 point shooter at the P5 level.
He does look good in traffic and finishing at the rim, but that is at a HS level.
His minutes (at TN, if he comes here) will be determined by his work ethic and defensive ability - not his offensive capability.
Assuming no injuries, and everybody comes back .... anything above 8 ppg is gravy.
 
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#1,596
#1,596
SN-A-C Orange said:
JP is the best either hand shooter (not counting PGs) that I have seen in a long time.
I think he has to be developed at the 3, I do not see him playing PF. Could he play there some, of course. But I do not see the physique for that position as a freshman.
He will absolutely not get the number of minutes KC got as a freshman. (There are a lot more bodies with experience at his position!!!)
He did not shoot a bunch from 3, so it will be interesting to see how confident and accurate his stroke is as a 3 point shooter at the P5 level.
He does look good in traffic and finishing at the rim, but that is at a HS level.
His minutes (at TN, if he comes here) will be determined by his work ethic and defensive ability - not his offensive capability.
Assuming no injuries, and everybody comes back .... anything above 8 ppg is gravy.
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I agree with this. His physical strength won’t develop enough in one year to play the 4. He has an excellent first step for someone his size, but you’re correct that he’ll have to adjust to college defenses.
 
#1,597
#1,597
bleedingTNorange said:
I feel like he’s the type that is going to piss off/aggravate many uneducated fans, he may just average 9/10ppg but with his measurables that’s enough to have him be a lottery pick. Kendall Brown at Baylor this year as a freshman has very similar measurables to Phillips, averaged 10/5/2 on 34% shooting from deep, he would flash dominance but for the most part a nice role player on a good team, most of our fan base would be scratching their heads trying to figure out why he was a 5 star and starting threads saying no way he’s ready for the NBA.
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Considering they did that with Kennedy Chandler, this is a safe bet
 
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#1,598
#1,598
VolArmy74 said:
The supreme irony of this statement. You're claiming Phillips isn't ranked as highly as I said because of things you've read on the internet from other individual services.

Even though Phillips is #13 overall in Rivals, #13 on ESPN. #14 on On3, which tells me him being 12 on composite is well within reason. Phillips is also #12 overall in the On3 consensus ranking. It would seem you've an agenda, if we even land Phillips, and are pre-making excuses if he doesn't pan out.
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Well according to that same service the #2 PF the last 5 years nationally ranked 7, 9, 12, 9 and 3…but Phillips is #12, so comparing him to those 5 doesn’t really seem entirely accurate or telling the whole story. Not making excuses at all, share the stats for those ranked #13 last 5 years on Rivals? Same for ESPN? #14 for On3?
 
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