From the get go, you said that no matter what, he's good with God. I find that to be hot garbage. I then offered a scenario in which he would not be good with God. That scenario is committing the crime and lying for the rest of his life by saying that he is innocent. I agree that neither of us knows whether he did it or not. That's why it's obscene of you to state that no matter what, he's fine by God.
And if he did it and he confessed his crimes to God and never confessed them to anyone else, he's lying for the rest of his life. And say, for instance, that he gets off because of a lack of evidence. Now not only will he maintain his innocence, but his victim receives no justice and is deemed the bad person. That's no way to get into heaven.