Alabama football: At least five players have reportedly tested positive for the coronavirus

[njvols]

So what? If there had been no lock down at all, herd immunity would have been achieved quickly and this would have all been over in about 3 weeks. Highly conditioned athletes in their late teens/early twenties have just about the least to worry about from it.

From what I've read, to achieve herd immunity, roughly 70% of the population has to have it. So, in a country of 328MM people, that's 227MM. Using the lowest death rate percent I could find of 1.3%, that's 2.98MM deaths, vs 108K we're at right now. So, bringing it back to the SEC, that would be like wiping out the entire population of either Mississippi or Arkansas.

 

[Vol8188]

Maybe you should learn a lot more about the virus and its sequelae before making uninformed statements.

I’ve posted the data in here multiple times. The risk of flu is greater for people under 25

 

[njvols]

I think in another 2-4 weeks there's gonna be legit concern as to whether there's gonna be a season. Bammer ain't the only school reporting cases.

If all schools have to test all players there are gonna be cases all over the country being reported which is inevitably going to lead to panic among the media, which will apply pressure to conference leaders, university officials, etc to cancel on campus meetings, classes, practice. Etc.

Again, this is just the way I see it going down. Not necessarily how I think it should happen.

I thought players reporting this early was an error, but in rethinking it, I believe they had players report this early, knowing there'd be some flare ups and give them a chance to try and mitigate or work thru the situation and tinker with their plans/options...knowing if large flare ups happen within weeks of the season starting, that's not going to be good for the start of the season.

 

[bigorange2009]

I think NIck needs to promote Butch to head Lysol sprayer....

I think Dooley would be a great fit for the position. As an added bonus he could show them the good showering hygiene technique. lol

 

[Crazy Ivan]

Then why is it a news story. duh

If the media thinks it will scare the public then to them it is a news story.

 

[Ned Ray McWorkher]

I've been working through the whole "pandemic" and I have no issue going into a large gathering. That's the point that you and your cronies don't understand. I have and should have the freedom to do as I choose. The same goes for you and your weak minded lackies, if you want to stay home, wear masks, etc you have the freedom to do as such.

Lackies ! Out here wearing masks in the damn car.

 

[BigOrangeFanatic]

I thought players reporting this early was an error, but in rethinking it, I believe they had players report this early, knowing there'd be some flare ups and give them a chance to try and mitigate or work thru the situation and tinker with their plans/options...knowing if large flare ups happen within weeks of the season starting, that's not going to be good for the start of the season.

Exactly. Especially if everyone that has it, and those that have been exposed have to quarantine 2 weeks. If they ease up on some of that stuff maybe there will be some workarounds. But the way they've approached everything so far I highly doubt it. I may end up being wrong about all of it. Hope I am.

 

[VFL-82-JP]

I love the idea of these lads getting together to practice, sharing the disease among themselves while they're at school, isolated from their (much higher risk) grandparents and great-grandparents, getting the anti-bodies, and then being good to go for a full football season, plus being able to safely go home to their loved ones at Thanksgiving and Christmas.

If we're going to move past this disease as a nation, it's going to start with our youth, where the risk is lowest, and "trickle up" from there.*

In other words, seems to me we actually WANT our lads to come together and 'get it out of their system' by getting it into their system. The tragedy is not a young adult catching the disease shortly after returning to school; the tragedy would be that young person catching the disease just before going home to their family at the holidays.

So this seems as good a way to get moving on it as any.


* parallel to the herd immunity "trickling up" is the hopeful emergence of a vaccine, perhaps as soon as this fall, and the drastic improvement in protection for our elderly that will come with it. The two methods of protecting the vulnerable can work in parallel.


p.s. Will a young person die from covid-19 exposure after going back to college? undoubtedly. Not necessarily a football player, not necessarily any athlete at all. But this disease can be a killer, and statistically will be again, including the rare young person. No different than the a priori knowledge that some college students will die of car accidents and other misadventure (alcohol poisoning, drug overdose, falling off the roof of a dorm, etc.), not to mention other diseases. Every death is tragic, but their occurrence and statistical certainty never stopped us from living life before. No reason for them to now.

 

[TrumpedUpVol]

I’m an ER physician, have practiced medicine for 10 years and have NEVER seen someone die from the flu.

How many people have you seen succumb to COVID-19?

 

[Crazy Ivan]

Can you provide a source for this statement? I’m an ER physician, have practiced medicine for 10 years and have NEVER seen someone die from the flu. The flu can predispose people to secondary infections, leading to pneumonia and sepsis, and I’ve seen people die from sepsis. I’ve just never seen people die from just the flu. COVID19 is very very different.

CDC estimates are that 24000-62000 have died from the flu during the 2019-2020 flue season. Prior to thus flu season the CDC had predicted 60k+ deaths from flu, but they can't get a true count because of the pressure for hospitals to declare deaths as 'due to covid'.

Preliminary In-Season 2019-2020 Flu Burden Estimates

 

[LakeMaryFLVol]

I think NIck needs to promote Butch to head Lysol sprayer....

Meanwhile in Fayetteville after Dooley's seminar

 

[Carp]

You can't make a statement either way right now on which is more deadly (mortality rate) until we have accurate antibody testing and find out exactly how much of the population has actually been infected. Everything that's come out so far has the mortality rate for Covid dropping with each new count.

Mortality rate in NY and NJ has largely been confirmed at around .6% based off of recent antibody tests. We also know from smaller, hard hit towns like Albany, GA and Chelsea, MA that the mortality rate in those towns literally can't be lower than .1% because .1% of their entire populations have already died due to COVID. It's likely that the overall mortality rate is very close to .5%.

That being said, much like the flu (or even other virus really) the mortailty rate differs based on age. It is true that older people and people with underlying health conditions are much more at risk from COVID than people under 50 that are relatively healthy. But the same is true for the flu or any other virus. The old and immune suppressed are always going to be more at risk for any virus. If you're under 50 and relatively healthy, you aren't a significant risk to die from COVID (under .1% in all likelihood).

 

[VFL-82-JP]

Mortality rate in NY and NJ has largely been confirmed at around .6% based off of recent antibody tests. We also know from smaller, hard hit towns like Albany, GA and Chelsea, MA that the mortality rate in those towns literally can't be lower than .1% because .1% of their entire populations have already died due to COVID. It's likely that the overall mortality rate is very close to .5%.

That being said, much like the flu (or even other virus really) the mortailty rate differs based on age. It is true that older people and people with underlying health conditions are much more at risk from COVID than people under 50 that are relatively healthy, but the same is true for the flu or any other virus. The old and immune suppressed are always going to be more at risk for any virus. If you're under 50 and relatively healthy, you aren't a significant risk to die from COVID.

Really good post, Carp, thanks for it.

Found an illuminating chart at the CDC website last week, can share it (and the link to it) here:



The X axis is time: far left is early February, far right is last week.

The Y axis is deaths attributed to COVID-19. Segregated by age.

Our football players and the rest of the UT student body are mostly represented by the light blue line way at the bottom of the chart. That's how low-risk they are. Some of our assistant coaches are in the dark blue line just above it. Tee Martin and some of our older assistant coaches are in the orange line just above that. Our head coach is barely into the purple line (he's 46 years old, purple = 45-54).

These are all low-risk populations. Folks who have a high likelihood of being entirely asymptomatic or suffering only mild, cold-like symptoms if they catch the disease.

Good place to start building herd immunity, if you ask me.


p.s. Is Jim Chaney the oldest member of our coaching staff? Age 58, he's represented by the pink line, where the risk begins to be truly significant. Nothing like the risk to grandparents and great-grandparents (the upper purple, yellow and red lines), but still worth taking precautions. So maybe Chaney keeps his exposure to the players down for the first month or two while the disease runs through the locker room.



source: COVID-19 Provisional Counts - Weekly Updates by Select Demographic and Geographic Characteristics

 

[sjt18]

From what I've read, to achieve herd immunity, roughly 70% of the population has to have it. So, in a country of 328MM people, that's 227MM. Using the lowest death rate percent I could find of 1.3%, that's 2.98MM deaths, vs 108K we're at right now. So, bringing it back to the SEC, that would be like wiping out the entire population of either Mississippi or Arkansas.

The CDC's first real, data based infection fatality rate was .26% assuming 35% are asymptomatic or unreported (a ridiculously low estimate).

This of course does NOT account for Birx's direction that anyone who happens to be Covid positive at death should be counted as a Covid death. When asked specifically about a heart disease patient who dies by heart attack and happens to be Covid positive at the time... she said they should count as a Covid death. Then there's the "clarification" by the Illinois official linked here. In short, Covid deaths are being RADICALLY overcounted.

Only 7% of that 108K according to CDC had Covid listed as the only cause of death. I have a more detailed post earlier in this thread with facts available to someone who just digs a little.

Also, using the USS Roosevelt and Diamond Princess as test cases, we know that even under very concentrated close exposure only around 20% of a given population is likely to contract the virus. The actual infection rates that I've seen from various states including NY have been below 10% of total population. Missouri where I live is currently 4% and we appear to be over our "hump". About 80% of the time, a person's health, natural immune system will fight the virus off without infection. Even using your direct and simple approach the target for herd immunity would be 70% of 20% of 328MM... or 46MM. According to the "reported" cases, we have had almost 2 million now. However a study in NY suggests there are 10 actual cases for every reported case. A Stanford study suggests it could be as many as 80 cases for each reported case.

I have been skeptical of the narrative from the start primarily because of how the numbers were being manipulated and reported. Not bragging... but my skepticism turned out to be warranted in almost every respect.

 

[Fullfillmer]

It’s not absurd at all. They have a better chance of dying from the flu

Despite all your likes - this is categorically not true. It is not true and there is a very high likelihood that there will not be fans in attendance- and what will schools like Alabama do when they have 50 players in quarantine for two weeks during the season. Oops.
The fact that everyone wants corona to be no more serious than the flu - just doesn’t make it so.

The US has already had more people die from Corona this year than die from the flu in a typical year and dramatically fewer people have contracted Corona. You don’t have to do any great deal of research or be a mathlete to figure this out. Without vaccinations there will not be fans this season.

 

[savannahfan]

Alabama football: At least five players have reportedly tested positive for the coronavirus

This is why fans in stands anytime soon is absurd.

Here is a thought for you.... WHEN did this virus first creep into our society? In our small community in early December we had folks start suffering from the symptoms we are told to watch for with C-19. Some went to the e-room or clinic and were tested for flu which were all negative. (some spent time in the hospital) This happened all the way into the time the government and health community started yelling. Many around here have been quietly been wondering maybe this has been around longer than we thought. If and until testing has caught up and become reliable, all we can do is wonder what we are dealing with and how long have we been dealing. Many folks I know and who are medically knowledgeable, think we are going to find C-19 has been around for some time. Just morphed into a more severe form. But has been spreading for some time with the same characteristics as must flu hard on some and hardly on others. I know this is too simple a way to look at this or anything of this nature, but "Life must go on" if you want to stay in, do so, but for many of us we except to risk because "life will and must go on".

 

[sjt18]

CDC estimates are that 24000-62000 have died from the flu during the 2019-2020 flue season. Prior to thus flu season the CDC had predicted 60k+ deaths from flu, but they can't get a true count because of the pressure for hospitals to declare deaths as 'due to covid'.

Preliminary In-Season 2019-2020 Flu Burden Estimates

It isn't just that though. The flu is such a common contributor to the deaths of old people that cases are not counted. Without a test which is considered wasteful for the possibility of "flu", many deaths are just called "natural causes".

In the course of this Covid-19 hysteria, I ran across an interesting fact. Oregon does not count flu deaths at all. Since it is almost always accompanied by comorbidities (just like Covid-19)... they do not count flu as a cause of death. I don't know if other states have been doing the same.

I feel completely safe in saying that if we tested for and counted flu deaths they way we're testing and counting Covid-19 deaths... we'd have well over 100K per year in spite of vaccines and treatments.

 

[sjt18]

p.s. Is Jim Chaney the oldest member of our coaching staff? Age 58, he's represented by the pink line, where the risk begins to be truly significant. Nothing like the risk to grandparents and great-grandparents (the upper purple, yellow and red lines), but still worth taking precautions. So maybe Chaney keeps his exposure to the players down for the first month or two while the disease runs through the locker room.

Chaney could actually be a concern. He's not healthy.

 

[BigOrangeFanatic]

Despite all your likes - this is categorically not true. It is not true and there is a very high likelihood that there will not be fans in attendance- and what will schools like Alabama do when they have 50 players in quarantine for two weeks during the season. Oops.
The fact that everyone wants corona to be no more serious than the flu - just doesn’t make it so.

The US has already had more people die from Corona this year than die from the flu in a typical year and dramatically fewer people have contracted Corona. You don’t have to do any great deal of research or be a mathlete to figure this out. Without vaccinations there will not be fans this season.

Is the death reporting for Corona accurate though? Given how they have been reporting the deaths? Didn't the CDC state on their website that someone who had symptoms of covid at time of death were counted even if they didn't test positive?

 

[Carp]

Really good post, Carp, thanks for it.

Found an illuminating chart at the CDC website last week, can share it (and the link to it) here:

View attachment 284969

The X axis is time: far left is early February, far right is last week.

The Y axis is deaths attributed to COVID-19. Segregated by age.

Our football players and the rest of the UT student body are mostly represented by the light blue line way at the bottom of the chart. That's how low-risk they are. Some of our assistant coaches are in the dark blue line just above it. Tee Martin and some of our older assistant coaches are in the orange line just above that. Our head coach is barely into the purple line (he's 46 years old, purple = 45-54).

These are all low-risk populations. Folks who have a high likelihood of being entirely asymptomatic or suffering only mild, cold-like symptoms if they catch the disease.

Good place to start building herd immunity, if you ask me.


p.s. Is Jim Chaney the oldest member of our coaching staff? Age 58, he's represented by the pink line, where the risk begins to be truly significant. Nothing like the risk to grandparents and great-grandparents (the upper purple, yellow and red lines), but still worth taking precautions. So maybe Chaney keeps his exposure to the players down for the first month or two while the disease runs through the locker room.



source: COVID-19 Provisional Counts - Weekly Updates by Select Demographic and Geographic Characteristics

The only argument against this would be, how close are we to a vaccine or a viable treatment option that reduces the IFR to flu like levels (or lower)? That, to me, is what I want to know from public officials/health experts. Because if we believe these things are several months (or even years) away, then reaching herd immunity needs to be the goal. If they believe a vaccine or a treatment option will be available soon, mass spreading of the virus will lead to more deaths than necessary.

That's mostly the issue I have with the Sweden model. It has it's merits, and if something isn't discovered before the winter months, Sweden will likely be better suited to deal with a 2nd outbreak. But if something is discovered that reduces the IFR significantly, Sweden will have allowed thousands of deaths that could have likely been prevented.

 

[sjt18]

Mortality rate in NY and NJ has largely been confirmed at around .6% based off of recent antibody tests. We also know from smaller, hard hit towns like Albany, GA and Chelsea, MA that the mortality rate in those towns literally can't be lower than .1% because .1% of their entire populations have already died due to COVID. It's likely that the overall mortality rate is very close to .5%.

CDC's first data based projection was .4% of confirmed cases with a (too low) estimate of 35% asymptomatic cases... .26% infection mortality rate.

And again... this all has to be qualified by the way Covid-19 deaths are being counted. You do not have to die from Covid-19 to be counted in their total. You just have to die while Covid-19 positive. That may somehow be useful to those attempting to track the virus but it is VERY misleading when used to calculate a mortality rate that is naturally and necessarily compared to the flu for severity. We simply have not put the effort or discipline into counting flu deaths that way. If we did... the death totals would double or triple.

According to Birx's directive, George Floyd should be counted as a Covid death. He clearly died from something else but was supposedly Covid-19 positive when he died. If someone had a mild case of the flu and died because a cop cut off breathing... would anyone in their right mind suggest that be counted among flu deaths? Then why so for Covid?

 

[Carp]

Is the death reporting for Corona accurate though? Given how they have been reporting the deaths? Didn't the CDC state on their website that someone who had symptoms of covid at time of death were counted even if they didn't test positive?

False recordings have likely happened, though how many is up for debate. The counter to that is health experts also believe there are bunch of unconfirmed COVID deaths as well, from people dying at home due to COVID. It's possible these two things largely cancel each other out.

 

[BigOrangeFanatic]

CDC's first data based projection was .4% of confirmed cases with a (too low) estimate of 35% asymptomatic cases... .26% infection mortality rate.

And again... this all has to be qualified by the way Covid-19 deaths are being counted. You do not have to die from Covid-19 to be counted in their total. You just have to die while Covid-19 positive. That may somehow be useful to those attempting to track the virus but it is VERY misleading when used to calculate a mortality rate that is naturally and necessarily compared to the flu for severity. We simply have not put the effort or discipline into counting flu deaths that way. If we did... the death totals would double or triple.

I was thinking at one time I read on the CDCs site that you didn't even have to test postive at time of death, that If you just showed covid symptoms it was counted as covid.

 

[PlanetVolunteer]

Despite all your likes - this is categorically not true. It is not true and there is a very high likelihood that there will not be fans in attendance- and what will schools like Alabama do when they have 50 players in quarantine for two weeks during the season. Oops.
The fact that everyone wants corona to be no more serious than the flu - just doesn’t make it so.

The US has already had more people die from Corona this year than die from the flu in a typical year and dramatically fewer people have contracted Corona. You don’t have to do any great deal of research or be a mathlete to figure this out. Without vaccinations there will not be fans this season.

"those under 25 have a significantly lower risk of dying from COVID-19 vs. the flu"

Estimating the Risk of Death from COVID-19 vs. Influenza by Age

All the data is still provisional. They still do not differentiate between deaths FROM and WITH the virus. Therefore the real death rates are still likely lower than we think.

 

[BigOrangeFanatic]

False recordings have likely happened, though how many is up for debate. The counter to that is health experts also believe there are bunch of unconfirmed COVID deaths as well, from people dying at home due to COVID. It's possible these two things largely cancel each other out.

Highly doubt that. But will agree to disagree I guess.