All things STOCKS

#6,081
#6,081
Carp said:
Hope you got out with some gains. Looks like this is coming back down to $41.
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I stopped out for a small loss. I think it will hold $44. Probably buying November calls tomorrow if it’s looking green. It’s on the ballot to be legalized in three or four states
 
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#6,086
#6,086
I’m hesitant about putting more cash to work right now. I do have my eye on some beaten up equities, but the companies that I’d like to own have been driven up to very high valuations. I’m really worried about the budget deficit and also the possibility that the Dems could take the POTUS and maybe even the Senate AND if they do I’m afraid that they’ll attack the deficits/debt by hitting corporations really hard with much higher taxes. IMO that will reverse the positive repatriation trend of jobs and manufacturing facilities and keeping HQs domiciled in the US.

I think that the economic variables are really fragile right now. Interest rates especially as it relates to the ND. I hope that the trillions that the government is adding to the debt is with very long term bond issues. Having to refinance it at higher rates would obliterate the budgets for years.

I reckon that there will be a lot of trading opportunities for a long time yet (I’m more a student of high frequency trading rather than a participant). When the vaccine is announced I don’t know if there will be a euphoric rally or a “sell on the news” pull back. But I did see somebody that I closely follow suggest that we’re likely looking at a long haul even when a vaccine is announced (and IMO huge volatility and trading opportunities). Three likely scenarios are not positive for a quick result. One of the possible vaccines has to be stored at an extremely low temperature (like minus 90 plus degrees). That will make it difficult to obtain widespread deployment quickly. The facilities that can manage that storage requirement (hospitals and certain labs) aren’t very good logistically for distributing the vaccine. Secondly, the winning vaccine may not be a one time injection. So two dosages would add a couple of months to the timeline. And thirdly, early vaccinations might only be effective around 50% of the time... so people will cut back on isolating and masking and it’s gonna keep getting passed around.

I do think that international equities might get a pop if the Ds win big in 20 days. There are a lot of industries that will do well (green power, EVs, etc) but I think they’re already trading at high multiples.

I’m resisting making any big changes until after the political dust settles a bit a few days after the 1st Tuesday next month. Just my 2 cents.
 
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#6,087
#6,087
Thunder Good-Oil said:
I’m hesitant about putting more cash to work right now. I do have my eye on some beaten up equities, but the companies that I’d like to own have been driven up to very high valuations. I’m really worried about the budget deficit and also the possibility that the Dems could take the POTUS and maybe even the Senate AND if they do I’m afraid that they’ll attack the deficits/debt by hitting corporations really hard with much higher taxes. IMO that will reverse the positive repatriation trend of jobs and manufacturing facilities and keeping HQs domiciled in the US.

I think that the economic variables are really fragile right now. Interest rates especially as it relates to the ND. I hope that the trillions that the government is adding to the debt is with very long term bond issues. Having to refinance it at higher rates would obliterate the budgets for years.

I reckon that there will be a lot of trading opportunities for a long time yet (I’m more a student of high frequency trading rather than a participant). When the vaccine is announced I don’t know if there will be a euphoric rally or a “sell on the news” pull back. But I did see somebody that I closely follow suggest that we’re likely looking at a long haul even when a vaccine is announced (and IMO huge volatility and trading opportunities). Three likely scenarios are not positive for a quick result. One of the possible vaccines has to be stored at an extremely low temperature (like minus 90 plus degrees). That will make it difficult to obtain widespread deployment quickly. The facilities that can manage that storage requirement (hospitals and certain labs) aren’t very good logistically for distributing the vaccine. Secondly, the winning vaccine may not be a one time injection. So two dosages would add a couple of months to the timeline. And thirdly, early vaccinations might only be effective around 50% of the time... so people will cut back on isolating and masking and it’s gonna keep getting passed around.

I do think that international equities might get a pop if the Ds win big in 20 days. There are a lot of industries that will do well (green power, EVs, etc) but I think they’re already trading at high multiples.

I’m resisting making any big changes until after the political dust settles a bit a few days after the 1st Tuesday next month. Just my 2 cents.
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One other thing to consider, the market is seeing a lot of day trading volume since covid hit. Another stimulus check will further the ambitious gambler's increasing market volatility. Once this dries up things will settle down a bit. Also, the return of sports betting will also drain off some of the day trading funds. I'm not saying things will normalize to pre covid, I'm just saying this is a factor to consider.
 
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#6,088
#6,088
GoDucks349 said:
One other thing to consider, the market is seeing a lot of day trading volume since covid hit. Another stimulus check will further the ambitious gambler's increasing market volatility. Once this dries up things will settle down a bit. Also, the return of sports betting will also drain off some of the day trading funds. I'm not saying things will normalize to pre covid, I'm just saying this is a factor to consider.
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Most of those traders were not involved during the dot com bubble and the youngest weren’t equity market participants during the Great Recession melt down. They’ve been conditioned with the huge, quick recovery after the March 2020 COVID crash. IMO we’re overdue for a major, protracted pull back.
 
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#6,089
#6,089
Thunder Good-Oil said:
Most of those traders were not involved during the dot com bubble and the youngest weren’t equity market participants during the Great Recession melt down. They’ve been conditioned with the huge, quick recovery after the March 2020 COVID crash. IMO we’re overdue for a major, protracted pull back.
Click to expand...

I know what you are talking about. Mike, one of my traders started in 95', he's a tough irish catholic that's smart and knows how to develop relationships with other trading houses. He lost a lot of good friends during 9/11. Mike is still in the game and the game has changed with black box trading etc. But he's still a good source and good at what he does.

Honestly, I'm a bit out of the loop anymore. I get info when I need it but it's really on a request basis as a friend. I don't abuse that privilege.
 
#6,090
#6,090
Odds we see another little market dip as we near election? Biden seems like a foregone conclusion at this point.
 
#6,092
#6,092
Carp said:
Odds we see another little market dip as we near election? Biden seems like a foregone conclusion at this point.
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Republican Senate seems to think so. They have suddenly become fiscal conservatives again and not supporting Trump's stimulus plan. Hoping to keep the Senate which seems likely.

I would not write off Trump.
 
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#6,094
#6,094
We need a Biden/Harris victory list.

TAN
FAN
Green Power
Lithium
EVs (TSLA, F)
Work from home (WFH, ZM, AMZN, DOCU)
Alcohol (STZ, SAM, DEO)
Reefer (STZ)
Bitcoin/Crypto
Europe (minus GB)
Asia
Mexico/Latin America

Maybe MLM/Vulcan/CAT and other infrastructure beneficiaries

Of course many will have already run up.
 
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#6,095
#6,095
mr.checkerboards said:
I think it's closer than the surveys on the news networks are saying
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Yes. I wasn’t listening closely but there was a state by state analysis on TV last night that made it sound pretty close. It will come down to just a couple of them. It won’t matter how many California socialists pile on... it’s not a popular vote. There’s still an EC (for now anyway).
 
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