All things STOCKS

#6,277
#6,277
Since markets are forward looking, I have a feeling that some of the names beaten up by COVID might be close to moving upward. There might still be buying opportunities as there should be pullbacks after moves upward, but non-leisure related travel and restaurants might be improving. JETS, BETZ, IGT, individual airlines, hotels, plus BA and Spirit Aero. It might still be a little early for movie theaters, cruise lines, and entertainment venues (Live Nation) but stocks start advancing before the actual businesses recover. Maybe Textron is a better idea than BA. Jetting around sitting with fewer people might be a preferred long term trend.

I think that the narrative from the media will take a 180 in Q1-2021 as the months of social distancing and mask shame start producing positive results. The spin will suddenly be positive when Biden-Harris are the presidents.

Infrastructure had already taken a strong move up. Some names have pulled back slightly, but it makes more sense to use stimulus money to actually build things instead of giving handouts like a welfare state. I might buy more Martin Marietta. I might start a position in URI (although they’re both well off of their lows). Caterpillar has had a nice run and needs China buying to keep moving. Even energy might be ready to bounce. Wind and solar are nice, but oil is still necessary to put the country to work. Heavy industry isn’t going to keep up with China with just photovoltaic panels installed on factory roofs and mining equipment won’t dig very deep or long running on just electricity.
 
#6,278
#6,278
This really makes no sense at all to me. Covid is getting worse world-wide. There's no rush to buy airlines and hotels. There will be a turnaround at some point, but it doesn't much sense to try to predict it. if I was going to predict it, I don't see any reason to predict it now. when these companies go bankrupt, there's no spin on that. The media doesn't make your stock go to zero. It's possible the bondholders will be bailed out, but there's no reason for the government to extend that bailout beyond the banks. They might, but there's no real reason to.
 
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#6,279
#6,279
Firebirdparts said:
This really makes no sense at all to me. Covid is getting worse world-wide. There's no rush to buy airlines and hotels. There will be a turnaround at some point, but it doesn't much sense to try to predict it. if I was going to predict it, I don't see any reason to predict it now.
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But they’re realizing the lockdowns aren’t helping. The EU has been locked down and now killed people AND their economy. It’s time to move on and accept it as we have every other virus ever.
 
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#6,280
#6,280
Stock markets are forward looking.

Domestically, deaths have been trending downward. Treatments are improving.

Cases have increased because the younger demo has spiked.

Daily testing has steadily climbed which makes containment more effective.

Managing the virus isn’t that far off. Complete eradication is a different concept.

Equities will zoom when the vaccines begin to be distributed rather than when they begin to reduce new cases a few months further out.

Again, markets are forward looking. The best capitalized airlines and hotels will emerge with damaged or less competition.
 
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#6,281
#6,281
IBM and Lockheed Martin have pulled back pretty hard recently. Lockheed probably comes under more pressure when Biden-Harris are the president. IBM shouldn’t have pension liabilities hanging over them any more, but they’re way behind in the Cloud. Buying Red Hat might have saved them from obsolescence. But they need to leverage their legacy customers before it’s too late. Actually they might have little leverage left there. They need to make more acquisitions that complement their strategy. LMT will eventually be back in favor. Both have nice dividends for those that are patient.
 
#6,285
#6,285
VolAllen said:
Well I’m now down huge on my calls, so I’m mentally prepared to lose the $9,000. I’m going to hold and let it ride until 11/20 (or a pop).
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I've fubar'd my account pretty bad on these drops so I'm gonna take a little break. This morning was the last straw I bought something instead of selling it. Used my last day trade this week to get out and then said I'm done for now.
 
#6,289
#6,289
loosedog said:
So what’s everyone’s thoughts on buy timing? Today is the day or just beginning and don’t buy till post election?
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I'm buying today. Probably will deploy half of available cash today. I'll try to save some cash for next Wednesday but I think it's not looking likely we will have a contested election.
 
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#6,290
#6,290
VolAllen said:
So, is this the election selloff? 🥴
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I think it’s the primary reason. A Trump win is not likely. Solar was the only green on my main watch list. Then stimulus negotiations aren’t making progress. Then virus pessimism. There’s nothing to be optimistic about in the near term. I’m putting the brakes on putting more cash to work today. I might buy something around Friday but waiting for the Wednesday open is the responsible approach.

Edit: I’d throw Philly rioting into the mix.
 
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#6,291
#6,291
Thunder Good-Oil said:
I think it’s the primary reason. A Trump win is not likely. Solar was the only green on my main watch list. Then stimulus negotiations aren’t making progress. Then virus pessimism. There’s nothing to be optimistic about in the near term. I’m putting the brakes on putting more cash to work today. I might buy something around Friday but waiting for the Wednesday open is the responsible approach.
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Yeah, its starting to look like a clean sweep for the Dems (WH and Congress). That would likely hurt the markets (although maybe not initially since that would likely increase stimulus odds)
 
#6,292
#6,292
Big 5 Sporting Goods is off 20% after their earnings release. But Sturm Ruger and Smith Wesson are 2 of the few green names. Camping is also green. Head for the hills!
 
#6,293
#6,293
VolAllen said:
So, is this the election selloff? 🥴
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I think the three major factors driving the market right now are gov responses to spiking virus numbers nationally and globally, no hope for a stimulus deal between the children in DC trying to posture on either side for political gain to the detriment of businesses and consumers being impacted by said gov responses to virus numbers, and volatility ahead of the US election.
 
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#6,294
#6,294
I'm in the mood to buy, but I do see the virus-related economic shutdowns are back. Europe in particular is going to have to close back down. I keep thinking the buying opportunity wouldn't go away after just one day. I guess we'll see.
 
#6,295
#6,295
TheColdVolTruth said:
I think the three major factors driving the market right now are gov responses to spiking virus numbers nationally and globally, no hope for a stimulus deal between the children in DC trying to posture on either side for political gain to the detriment of businesses and consumers being impacted by said gov responses to virus numbers, and volatility ahead of the US election.
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Smokey has had a rough week.....
 
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