All things STOCKS

#6,351
#6,351
TheColdVolTruth said:
Solar can't help with the winter peak demand inversion that is realized around the country until power storage solutions drastically improve. It also causes issues with power plants designed to base load by causing them to cycle due to solar output fluctuations when weather changes rapidly. Natural gas should be a focal point currently. Combined cycles can be built at a fraction of the cost and schedule duration of nuclear. NG is stupid cheap, and we have an almost endless supply.
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Solar can work under some conditions. It can help with peak demand during the hottest time of the day when A/C systems are creating a heavy load. If it’s improved there would be no reason not to include it on every roof top in certain areas. It can be part of the MIX. Investing in the development of recyclable materials gives it much more potential. Displacing asphalt shingles with affordable materials that generate power would be a huge advancement for society.
 
#6,352
#6,352
Thunder Good-Oil said:
Solar can work under some conditions. It can help with peak demand during the hottest time of the day when A/C systems are creating a heavy load. If it’s improved there would be no reason not to include it on every roof top in certain areas. It can be part of the MIX. Investing in the development of recyclable materials gives it much more potential. Displacing asphalt shingles with affordable materials that generate power would be a huge advancement for society.
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They are productive during summer peak in good weather. The issues they cause are during fluctuations. When a storm builds up and clouds develop, their output drops. This causes another source of power gen (typically a power plant) to cycle units up to increase output to maintain power on the system. Then the storm passes, the solar panels begin delivering full output again, and the power station has to cycle back down. Many of those units were not designed to cycle quickly, and they experience operational and maintenance issues during this process.

The other challenge is that many fossil units have been retired due to increased solar generation capacity, but solar does not generate anything during winter peak when the system realizes a demand inversion. Peak demand during the winter occurs overnight when temperatures drop, but solar isn't productive at night. The system often experiences the least amount of reserve capacity during the winter season due to the retirement of so many fossil units. I agree with the multiple shots on goal approach, but solar presents many issues at the system level.
 
#6,353
#6,353
This is my map if it copies, but I have Trump winning FL and Jersey. Both of those economies rely heavily on the tourism dollar, and I don't think Biden preaching for another lockdown will help him there and actually hurts him.
 

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#6,354
#6,354
Thunder Good-Oil said:
I’m trying to avoid being too political in here, but I do think that it is fair to opine based on my beliefs that Biden isn’t mentally fit to serve 4 years (so Harris is very much in play), the media is biased as ****, and Trump is an unlikeable, arrogant, egotistical New York A-hole. And Trump would be in much better shape if he had any semblance of a filter. So the point here is, who is going to win (I’m nearly convinced it will be Joe Harris) and how does it affect our investments and/or trades? If there’s disagreement with the first sentence then we can duke it out in the Political Forum.
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So this is actually a really easy answer if you just look at the past, but nobody likes it. Everybody has this attitude that "the republicans are good for business" and the data show that about 100% of the stock market returns occur during a democratic presidency. Nobody likes that answer, but that's the reality. So you can deal with reality in multiple ways. Here are examples that I do not endorse in any way:
1. Democrats have a better chance at the presidency when times are "bad"; bad times lead to good returns
2. A democrat presidency increases the likelihood of the house turning republican, if not immediately, then in year 2; gridlock or republican house leads to good returns.
3. Tax cuts of republican presidents take a while to take effect. The effect shows up during the democratic presidency. The former president leads to good returns.
4. It's just random noise generated by 2 or 3 major not-government-related events. Financial innovation leads to disaster, followed by good returns.
5. Conservative voters all sell their stocks when they think a democrat is going to elected, but then cave in and buy back in later.

Anyway, the real question is what will Biden/Harris do to investing and the economy. The answer (historically) is probably not much. If you want to look for a comparable example, honestly, it has to be FDR in 1932. If you don't see the parallels between right now and FDR, then pick your own. The big difference today is that today we can fearlessly print money, and due to the lessons of the 1930s, we actually do. If DJT is not afraid of modern monetary theory, I certainly don't expect the democrats to be afraid of it. So I kind of expect an FDR-if-he-was-allowed-to-print-money road ahead, and honestly, Trump is already doing that.

The biggest thing that affects the value of stocks is the "real" cost of capital, which is a little below zero (can't improve, can only get worse). I don't expect either party to really change it. I guess we'll see.
 
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#6,355
#6,355
TheColdVolTruth said:
They are productive during summer peak in good weather. The issues they cause are during fluctuations. When a storm builds up and clouds develop, their output drops. This causes another source of power gen (typically a power plant) to cycle units up to increase output to maintain power on the system. Then the storm passes, the solar panels begin delivering full output again, and the power station has to cycle back down. Many of those units were not designed to cycle quickly, and they experience operational and maintenance issues during this process.

The other challenge is that many fossil units have been retired due to increased solar generation capacity, but solar does not generate anything during winter peak when the system realizes a demand inversion. Peak demand during the winter occurs overnight when temperatures drop, but solar isn't productive at night. The system often experiences the least amount of reserve capacity during the winter season due to the retirement of so many fossil units. I agree with the multiple shots on goal approach, but solar presents many issues at the system level.
Click to expand...

Therefore the systems are developed and issues are addressed. I’m not necessarily envisioning solar farms hosting large generating facilities. I’m thinking more on a micro level possibly coupled with traditional generators to smooth production out. Generac just made some type of acquisition announcement of a company that is involved with grids and demand management. The wrong thing to do is to ignore improving on a source of energy that can contribute to a blended power supply. Put them at daily driving destinations during the day to charge EVs while people are at work. Also, they are most effective in places like Florida and Arizona which experience the greatest demand for A/C during the day in the summer.
 
#6,357
#6,357
Firebirdparts said:
So this is actually a really easy answer if you just look at the past, but nobody likes it. Everybody has this attitude that "the republicans are good for business" and the data show that about 100% of the stock market returns occur during a democratic presidency. Nobody likes that answer, but that's the reality. So you can deal with reality in multiple ways. Here are examples that I do not endorse in any way:
1. Democrats have a better chance at the presidency when times are "bad"; bad times lead to good returns
2. A democrat presidency increases the likelihood of the house turning republican, if not immediately, then in year 2; gridlock or republican house leads to good returns.
3. The fabulous effect of republican presidents take a while to get going and all the effect shows up during the democratic presidency. The former president leads to good returns.
4. It's just random noise generated by 2 or 3 major not-government-related events. Financial innovation leads to disaster, followed by good returns.
5. Conservative voters all sell their stocks when they think a democrat is going to elected, but then cave in and buy back in later.

Anyway, the real question is what will Biden/Harris do to investing and the economy. The answer (historically) is probably not much. If you want to look for a comparable example, honestly, it has to be FDR in 1932. If you don't see the parallels between right now and FDR, then pick your own. The big difference today is that today we can fearlessly print money, and due to the lessons of the 1930s, we actually do. If DJT is not afraid of modern monetary theory, I certainly don't expect the democrats to be afraid of it. So I kind of expect an FDR-if-he-was-allowed-to-print-money road ahead, and honestly, Trump is already doing that.

The biggest thing that affects the value of stocks is the "real" cost of capital, which is a little below zero (can't improve, can only get worse). I don't expect either party to really change it. I guess we'll see.
Click to expand...

You are creating partisan arguments that belong in the Politicsl Forum, but the Trump rally began the day after the 2016 election however the stats credit Obama’s administration for the rally. The opposite is true today. The current pull back through inauguration will penalize Trump (I’m assuming Biden-Harris will win). That 100% of the returns assertion also ignores the party in control of Congress and also that policies are long term in nature rather than immediate and much of those from a single term POTUS probably have as much of an impact on the economy of a successor’s administration.
 
#6,360
#6,360
Thunder Good-Oil said:
Therefore the systems are developed and issues are addressed. I’m not necessarily envisioning solar farms hosting large generating facilities. I’m thinking more on a micro level possibly coupled with traditional generators to smooth production out. Generac just made some type of acquisition announcement of a company that is involved with grids and demand management. The wrong thing to do is to ignore improving on a source of energy that can contribute to a blended power supply. Put them at daily driving destinations during the day to charge EVs while people are at work. Also, they are most effective in places like Florida and Arizona which experience the greatest demand for A/C during the day in the summer.
Click to expand...

I agree they are effective at the micro level. Solar can be an effective player in distributed generation schemes and micro grids. However some utilities in the Midwest and southeast have used solar generation in AZ or CA to replace generating capacity in their fleet. An operating company in OH or NC purchases 500 MW of solar generation from a farm in AZ, and they then retire 500 MW of fossil generation. This works until temperatures drop overnight during the winter and the moon is shining on the solar farm in AZ. These decisions have been made in the last several years, and have led to systems being precariously close to brownouts in some locations during winter peak. I'm bullish on solar in the future, particularly if Biden wins, but we need power storage technology to improve greatly if we're going to continue retiring fossil units and replacing them with solar. NEE has a very nice portfolio of renewables and fossil. They also split recently. That's a name I like in the utility sector that gives exposure to solar.
 
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#6,362
#6,362
TheColdVolTruth said:
I agree they are effective at the micro level. Solar can be an effective player in distributed generation schemes and micro grids. However some utilities in the Midwest and southeast have used solar generation in AZ or CA to replace generating capacity in their fleet. An operating company in OH or NC purchases 500 MW of solar generation from a farm in AZ, and they then retire 500 MW of fossil generation. This works until temperatures drop overnight during the winter and the moon is shining on the solar farm in AZ. These decisions have been made in the last several years, and have led to systems being precariously close to brownouts in some locations during winter peak. I'm bullish on solar in the future, particularly if Biden wins, but we need power storage technology to improve greatly if we're going to continue retiring fossil units and replacing them with solar. NEE has a very nice portfolio of renewables and fossil. They also split recently. That's a name I like in the utility sector that gives exposure to solar.
Click to expand...

I’ve considered buying NEE and/or Generac and/or TAN. I currently own Dominion (D) and FAN. FAN was a mistake. D is a good company. D burns a lot of Natty IIRC.
 
#6,363
#6,363
mr.checkerboards said:
This is my map if it copies, but I have Trump winning FL and Jersey. Both of those economies rely heavily on the tourism dollar, and I don't think Biden preaching for another lockdown will help him there and actually hurts him.
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There is virtually zero chance Trump wins NJ. However, NC is a toss up and I think it ultimately swings red, so switching out NJ for NC is only a difference of 1 electoral vote. MN and PA seem like unlikely Trump victories at this point, while AZ seems like slight Trump lean.

I won't be voting for either candidate, but I still think Biden wins. Waning Republican support in the traditional deep red states like Texas, GA, and NC is too much to ignore, imo. I'm just hoping whatever happens, the House and Senate stay split.
 
#6,364
#6,364
Carp said:
There is virtually zero chance Trump wins NJ. However, NC is a toss up and I think it ultimately swings red, so switching out NJ for NC is only a difference of 1 electoral vote. MN and PA seem like unlikely Trump victories at this point, while AZ seems like slight Trump lean.

I won't be voting for either candidate, but I still think Biden wins. Waning Republican support in the traditional deep red states like Texas, GA, and NC is too much to ignore, imo. I'm just hoping whatever happens, the House and Senate stay split.
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Thats fair, my main thinking for Trump to steal NJ was because they rely a lot on tourism and im not sure Biden touting another lockdown will do him any favors there. For PA Biden's comments on getting rid of oil will hurt him there. For NC im not sure I just know the part of the state closer to me is very left leaning or so that's the vibe I get from them. TX and GA will go red but I agree the waning support is concerning

As far as the House and Senate from what ive heard and read its looking like at least 2 year of a blue sweep if Biden wins.
 
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#6,365
#6,365
Down market.

Stupid high multiples for tech stocks.
No stimulus
Earnings are not increasing materially

I'm seeing real inflation in building materials. Saw a lumber quote this morning. Likely caused by mill closings, tariffs and the sun coming up. It's tough for people to buy or build a house now.
 
#6,370
#6,370
“Federal U.S. health officials are lifting their ban on cruise sailings in U.S. waters Saturday, allowing the industry to prepare to restart voyages amid a surge in coronavirus cases around the world.

The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention has decided to let its "no sail" order expire on Saturday, after imposing the ban amid Covid-19 outbreaks on dozens of cruise ships in the spring.

The regulator's conditional order presents cruise operators' the opportunity to generate revenue after they reported billions of dollars in losses this year when the pandemic put brakes on the tourism industry.”
 
#6,371
#6,371
“To restart carrying passengers, cruise operators would first need to conduct simulated voyages demonstrating their ships' safety, the CDC said.

Itineraries can't be longer than a week, and operators must test all passengers and crew for Covid-19 on embarkation and disembarkation, the CDC said. Crew members transferred from other ships in the 28 prior days have to test negative for Covid-19, it said.

Ship operators would need agreements with port authorities to determine the number of cruise ships allowed at any port, so as "to not overburden the public health response resources of any single jurisdiction in the event of a Covid-19 outbreak," the agency added.”
 
#6,372
#6,372
Thunder Good-Oil said:
“To restart carrying passengers, cruise operators would first need to conduct simulated voyages demonstrating their ships' safety, the CDC said.

Itineraries can't be longer than a week, and operators must test all passengers and crew for Covid-19 on embarkation and disembarkation, the CDC said. Crew members transferred from other ships in the 28 prior days have to test negative for Covid-19, it said.

Ship operators would need agreements with port authorities to determine the number of cruise ships allowed at any port, so as "to not overburden the public health response resources of any single jurisdiction in the event of a Covid-19 outbreak," the agency added.”
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This is all very good for my SAVE. Their financials were already solid in the ER. Stimulus and vaccine news should carry this back to the $25 price targets.
 
#6,373
#6,373
VolAllen said:
This is all very good for my SAVE. Their financials were already solid in the ER. Stimulus and vaccine news should carry this back to the $25 price targets.
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I’m now long SAVE and CCL. I don’t mind hanging on to SAVE for a while, but a quick 7-10% and I’m probably bailing on CCL. Looking at 12/1 bookings if their test open goes well. They are going to do mock cruises with employees as the “clients”.
 
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#6,375
#6,375
Thunder Good-Oil said:
I’m now long SAVE and CCL. I don’t mind hanging on to SAVE for a while, but a quick 7-10% and I’m probably bailing on CCL. Looking at 12/1 bookings if their test open goes well. They are going to do mock cruises with employees as the “clients”.
Click to expand...
SAVE got some pretty nice upgrades after their ER. Most with a $25 PT.
 
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