All things STOCKS

[VolAllen]

(As I put nearly $10,000 in Save Calls)

 

[Thunder Good-Oil]

Kinda wondering if I'm buying/moving too quickly.

I got in with PLUG at less than 19 a share....granted I didn't have a ton of shares but it's not been below 20 since.


Anyone got some good research sites/material they'd recommend?

Risk Reward – Plug Power Inc. (PLUG.O)

Hydrogen Fuel Cell System Facilitating Paradigm Shift in Transportation & Energy

OVERWEIGHT THESIS

▪ Large market opportunity of $2.5Tn (hydrogen economy).

▪ We expect rapid growth in the material handling segment for Plug given the significant benefits it provides to customers. ▪ PLUG's leading position in the number of hydrogen fueling sites enables it to provide a cost-effective fueling network for on-road FCEVs.

▪ Margin expansion potential is significant, in our view. We see opportunities to expand margin by improving factory utilization, improving technology, and scaling their hydrogen infrastructure.

▪ Positive trajectory given several partnerships around on-road fuel cell vehicles and renewable power as well as line of sight for growth in Europe and progress in electrolyzer technology.

Price Target

Prob (>21.25)~31.6%

Prob (> 14.00) ~54.0%

Prob (<6.75)~14.0%

Consensus Rating Distribution

MS Rating

92% Overweight 8% Equal-weight 0% Underweight

MAY '20
Risk Reward Themes

Disruption:

Positive

BULL CASE $21.25

Explosive growth and margin improvement

Assumes 2024 revenue ~$175mm above management guidance of $1.2Bn. Assumptions beyond 2024: 29% revenue CAGR through 2030, gross margin expands to 39% by 2030.

BASE CASE $14.00

Modestly ahead of five-year plan

Assumes sustained penetration of global forklift market. PLUG maintains dominant market share and pricing pressure from competitors remains relatively limited through the forecast period. 2024 revenue is ~$100mm above management guidance of $1.2Bn. ~23% longer-term (2024-2030) revenue CAGR and ~37% gross margin by 2030.

View descriptions of Risk Rewards Themes, here BEAR CASE

$6.75

Increased competition or new alternatives

Increased competition in the hydrogen fuel cell space or new product alternatives lead to low demand; 2024 revenue is ~$75mm below management guidance of $1.2Bn; ~19% longer-term (2024-2030) revenue CAGR. PLUG is not able to meaningfully improve margins on infrastructure, service, or fuel delivery, leading to ~33% gross margin by 2030.

KEY EARNINGS INPUTS

Drivers 2019

GenDrive Units (Volumes) 6,490.0

Product Gross Margin (%) 35.4

EBITDAS Growth (%) (131.4)

RISKS TO UPSIDE

N/A

RISKS TO DOWNSIDE

Potential for reliability concerns among early customers;

Interruptions to hydrogen supply;

Economic downturn that could limit capital budgets for facility improvements;

Increasing competition

OWNERSHIP POSITIONING

Inst. Owners, % Active 54.1% HF Sector Long/Short Ratio 1.9x HF Sector Net Exposure 7.6%

Significant head start over fuel stack integrators, driving industry-leading performance.

Solid blue chip customer list that continues to grow.

Decline in $/kg cost of hydrogen

GLOBAL REVENUE EXPOSURE

100% North America

Source: Morgan Stanley Research

 

[Go aeiou]

Also, I'm still riding DKNG. In @ $40 so I'm up 20% right now. Gonna see if it can knock on $60 again. This is my largest play at the moment.

DraftKings announced that they are selling more stock in early Oct. The dilution quickly dropped their stock price.
I'm in around $33-35. I'll sell some around 50-55. Still think it is a good stock long term.

 

[bignewt]

DraftKings announced that they are selling more stock in early Oct. The dilution quickly dropped their stock price.
I'm in around $33-35. I'll sell some around 50-55. Still think it is a good stock long term.

Bought at $19, sold at $45. Im good with that.

 

[VolAllen]

I wish some of you guys would join StockTwits. It’s even more fun than VN

 

[Go aeiou]

Bought at $19, sold at $45. Im good with that.

Ha, good trade. I got in in the 20s, but decided this is a good long term investment, and tripled my holding between 29 and 53.
It's my third largest holding now.
I sold some today just under 48.

 

[mr.checkerboards]

I wish some of you guys would join StockTwits. It’s even more fun than VN

Ive read plenty on there. I don't want any part of that. Every stock is going to the moon according to those who own it. And bears are dragging every stock down.

 

[BigOrangeMojo]

Ive read plenty on there. I don't want any part of that. Every stock is going to the moon according to those who own it. And bears are dragging every stock down.

It's like watching the Jerry Springer show. You feel better about your life after watching it...

 

[BigOrangeMojo]

I wish some of you guys would join StockTwits. It’s even more fun than VN

I think you should switch your Stocktwit avatar to a seafood tower. At least you are still rocking the Spice Girl video background

 

[VolAllen]

I think you should switch your Stocktwit avatar to a seafood tower. At least you are still rocking the Spice Girl video background

I do love me some Spice Girls. Just curious, which one is your favorite?

 

[bignewt]

I do love me some Spice Girls. Just curious, which one is your favorite?

Ginger is always the right answer

 

[BigOrangeMojo]

Ginger is always the right answer

Posh before she got all the work done and got too skinny.

Ginger just because she hooked up with Scary spice

 

[MoCo_Vol]

Ginger
Scary
Posh
Sporty
Baby

The right order if talking "in their prime"

 

[Carp]

All I know is Sporty was definitely last.

 

[Carp]

Out of TME, btw. 12.5% gains. I'll take it.

Rolled that into $PIC. I know it's being pumped, but EV plays are hot and the usual pumpers are just now pushing it, so I'm hoping to see some nice gains here. From a technical standpoint, the MACD is crossing over the 0 line and the stochastic indicator lines just crossed to bullish momentum.

 

[VolAllen]

Posh before she got all the work done and got too skinny.

Ginger just because she hooked up with Scary spice

After searching the Google machine, Posh was hands down the best. Baby definitely 2nd. Now those two might be the worst. Besides Sporty.....she’s still...ehh...

 

[BigOrangeMojo]

I don't know anything about it, but the chart looks like a decent setup at first glance. Way oversold RSI, and curling 12 day on the macd.

So far, so good in PING. Up 7% today.

 

[bignewt]

Sold my PLUG toooooo soon.

 

[TheColdVolTruth]

So far, so good in PING. Up 7% today.

I saw that. I added it to my watchlist after you mentioned it. That chart setup is pretty. I may join you in that one tomorrow or Monday.

 

[TheColdVolTruth]

It might get choppy tomorrow with Mnuchin deciding to let the fed backstop expire at YE. I sold my C and WFC today on the upgrade news. Might have gotten lucky there. Should be fun to watch tomorrow.

 

[Tri-CitiesVol]

Can’t recommend @StockSwingAlert on Twitter enough. His calls are absolute money.

 

[Tri-CitiesVol]

GEVO 1.05 to 1.50 so far.
PIC 10.25 to 12 so far.

 

[Go aeiou]

It might get choppy tomorrow with Mnuchin deciding to let the fed backstop expire at YE. I sold my C and WFC today on the upgrade news. Might have gotten lucky there. Should be fun to watch tomorrow.

Wfc down 1% at open.
Not sure how this will effect loan loss reserves which were generally thought to be excessive for most banks. I suspect those excess amounts won't be reversed now or will increase more.
I see it as a bigger problem for small banks. I paid off a loan this week on non income producing real estate, and the bank seemed happy. Helped clean up their loan portfolio and balance sheet although they said nothing about that.

 

[Carp]

Can’t recommend @StockSwingAlert on Twitter enough. His calls are absolute money.

I also like @AdnansArk a lot. Very helpful trader. I've learned a lot from him and he posts a lot of charts and breaks them down so it's easier to understand. He was high on WTRH and GEVO recently as well, and both have sky rocketed.

 

[Thunder Good-Oil]

Being patient with a day, limit buy order ($211.27) on Workday (WDAY). I wish I had bought back in March, but it wasn’t very clear how far the entire market could fall.