All things STOCKS

#12,176
#12,176
walkenvol said:
I might jinx you with this, but having lived through the dot.com bubble and the financial/ housing bubble I think it’s wise to take a capital preservation strategy atm until things shake out. All the retail market sellers and news providers tend to paint an overly optimistic outlook. It’s also human nature to keep chasing big returns when you’ve enjoyed several years of success. Doesn’t take a genius to look around and see there’s a lot of things in this country that are bat **** crazy right now starting with our political leadership. War and an impeding energy crisis in Europe. Inflation (especially food prices) is the highest I can recall and does anyone really believe the prices will fall in the future? Challenging times for investing for sure.
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You know, I've lost half my net worth twice, and I would have said the opposite. "Be fearful when others are fearful" is really not the way to do. The time to preserve capital was in January of 2020, and the big problem is if you are too chicken to invest again around April 1. if you invested again April 1, yippee, you've doubled your net worth, and since then, we have two clear signals to work with, if you care to:
1. Valuations are sky high, so IN THEORY stocks won't run up again real soon (in theory) and
2. The sovereign banks are raising rates because the economy is ON FIRE, and possibly doing QT at the same time, because they really need to.

The time to react to these realities is also in the past. They weren't secret. However, reacting to #1 has proven to be a bad idea some of the time.

I realize this thread is about individual stocks, so I don't want to jabber too much. There are 3 possible responses, it seems to me:
1. Do nothing-stay the course. You have the option of owning some bonds during this. Let's assume everybody knows how this works
2. Run some simple momentum strategy, moving averages, whatever you like.
3. Write some mission rules that say IF the market drops 25% THEN I will change my asset allocation to MORE STOCKS (Not less). This requires you to have some money that wasn't invested in stocks when things are good.

When you backtest these, obviously, having money uninvested just kills the timing strategies. They always lag behind. But if you are interested in "not seeing it going down" then the moving average strategy does chop that off. And if you have enough to retire on and you're just trying to make it through next year without losing half of it, then it's not totally useless.
 
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#12,177
#12,177
mrorange211 said:
I've been white knuckling 95% of my capital since I posted here around May 1. I've missed some bounces, but I just don't feel comfrotable investing with this macro environment. I know you are "supposed" to leave it in through thivk and thin, but I think I know more (not by much) than the regular investor who just invests in an ETF cause google says so.
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As you know, I jumped completely out early this year and I don’t believe I’m so wise as to be able to time the market perfectly to reenter. I rode out the prior corrections and it has always come back but things seem different this time to me. Just too many illogical crazy assed things happening for me to have faith things are headed in a positive direction. For my situation i wish I could find a safe 6% interest and I’d park it all for a couple years.
 
#12,178
#12,178
walkenvol said:
As you know, I jumped completely out early this year and I don’t believe I’m so wise as to be able to time the market perfectly to reenter. I rode out the prior corrections and it has always come back but things seem different this time to me. Just too many illogical crazy assed things happening for me to have faith things are headed in a positive direction. For my situation i wish I could find a safe 6% interest and I’d park it all for a couple years.
Click to expand...

Why don't you lock in some treasury bonds or CDs for a couple of years? Great rate and no risk

I feel like today is like July 26---everyone thinks the world is gonna end and then the market bounces back to 4200.
 
#12,181
#12,181
Firebirdparts said:
Having lived through the Y2K one, I gotta tell you that really hurt. And of course what's missing in that chart is 8 years out you're back in the hole. But one thing's for sure; nobody was talking about stocks being overvalued.
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Dot.com recession was essentially three legs down: the extreme valuation popping, WorldCom/Enron collapses, 9/11.
 
#12,182
#12,182
mrorange211 said:
Earnings are gonna be $hit though right? I mean they have to be, right? But if everyone is expecting that then.....bullish.....
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Don't know to what degree bad earnings are priced in. Clearly they are to a certain extent. With stocks like FB or NFLX or FDX they probably are fully priced in. With AAPL, who knows.

If we make it through earnings season with bad results and the market holds up, that'd be very bullish. As a long term investor I'd like to see one more flush, perhaps down to the pre-COVID highs from 2020, and lots of negative prognostications about how the economy is awful, bottom is nowhere in sight, people freaking out mostly about things that have already happened, etc., and then put a lot of long-term cash to work.
 
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#12,183
#12,183
One thing that I learned during dot com. Companies like Lockheed Martin, that do things like put satellites into orbit, should always be more valuable than those whose most valuable asset is a sock puppet. It’s not that difficult to figure out.
 
#12,184
#12,184
Firebirdparts said:
You know, I've lost half my net worth twice, and I would have said the opposite. "Be fearful when others are fearful" is really not the way to do. The time to preserve capital was in January of 2020, and the big problem is if you are too chicken to invest again around April 1. if you invested again April 1, yippee, you've doubled your net worth, and since then, we have two clear signals to work with, if you care to:
1. Valuations are sky high, so IN THEORY stocks won't run up again real soon (in theory) and
2. The sovereign banks are raising rates because the economy is ON FIRE, and possibly doing QT at the same time, because they really need to.

The time to react to these realities is also in the past. They weren't secret. However, reacting to #1 has proven to be a bad idea some of the time.

I realize this thread is about individual stocks, so I don't want to jabber too much. There are 3 possible responses, it seems to me:
1. Do nothing-stay the course. You have the option of owning some bonds during this. Let's assume everybody knows how this works
2. Run some simple momentum strategy, moving averages, whatever you like.
3. Write some mission rules that say IF the market drops 25% THEN I will change my asset allocation to MORE STOCKS (Not less). This requires you to have some money that wasn't invested in stocks when things are good.

When you backtest these, obviously, having money uninvested just kills the timing strategies. They always lag behind. But if you are interested in "not seeing it going down" then the moving average strategy does chop that off. And if you have enough to retire on and you're just trying to make it through next year without losing half of it, then it's not totally useless.
Click to expand...
I’ve also lost big a couple times and waited it out for recovery, but I was still working then. Personally, I didn’t fear 2020 because I viewed it as a temporary thing with the shutdown and used it as a buying opportunity for some cash I had. I had gotten way too heavily waited towards securities with bonds paying so poorly and started using utility dividends as a substitute. Things now just seem way more messed up than before IMHO, causing me to rethink my typical approach.

And anyone out there trying to evaluate a single stock without looking at the bigger financial picture as a whole is foolish - again IMHO.
 
#12,185
#12,185
05_never_again said:
Don't know to what degree bad earnings are priced in. Clearly they are to a certain extent. With stocks like FB or NFLX or FDX they probably are fully priced in. With AAPL, who knows.

If we make it through earnings season with bad results and the market holds up, that'd be very bullish. As a long term investor I'd like to see one more flush, perhaps down to the pre-COVID highs from 2020, and lots of negative prognostications about how the economy is awful, bottom is nowhere in sight, people freaking out mostly about things that have already happened, etc., and then put a lot of long-term cash to work.
Click to expand...

I think that AAPL can be bought on any pull back by long term investors. A decade ago their big thing was iPods. They don’t even make those anymore. Managing your stuff in the cloud is where all this is going and AAPL, AMZN WS, MSFT, GOOG, and (IMO) IBM will be in the middle of all that. ORCL and CRM are good bets (IMO) as well.
 
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#12,186
#12,186
On the high speculation end of the spectrum, I just read an article suggesting that 6 SPACs that could come out of that melt down could be (largest to smallest):

CHPT Chargepoint (EV charging stations)($4.9B)

OWL Blue Owl Capital ($4.1B)

LAZR Luminar Technologies (EVs)($2.6B)

RKLB Rocket Lab USA (2nd to SpaceX in private space commerce)($1.9B)

VCSA Vacasa (competitor to AirBnB)($0.69B)

SEAT Vivid Seats (events ticket seller-UT’s official reseller last year (and I thought that they were in over their head - customer service was crap))($0.63B)
 
#12,187
#12,187
walkenvol said:
As you know, I jumped completely out early this year and I don’t believe I’m so wise as to be able to time the market perfectly to reenter. I rode out the prior corrections and it has always come back but things seem different this time to me. Just too many illogical crazy assed things happening for me to have faith things are headed in a positive direction. For my situation i wish I could find a safe 6% interest and I’d park it all for a couple years.
Click to expand...
This ain't for sure 6%, but tips expiring in 2025 are currently paying inflation + 2%. Be warned though energy inflation in the USA is currently zero. Just factor that in.
 
#12,188
#12,188
Thunder Good-Oil said:
On the high speculation end of the spectrum, I just read an article suggesting that 6 SPACs that could come out of that melt down could be (largest to smallest):

CHPT Chargepoint (EV charging stations)($4.9B)

OWL Blue Owl Capital ($4.1B)

LAZR Luminar Technologies (EVs)($2.6B)

RKLB Rocket Lab USA (2nd to SpaceX in private space commerce)($1.9B)

VCSA Vacasa (competitor to AirBnB)($0.69B)

SEAT Vivid Seats (events ticket seller-UT’s official reseller last year (and I thought that they were in over their head - customer service was crap))($0.63B)
Click to expand...
I guess they really mean "former SPACS?"
 
#12,189
#12,189
05_never_again said:
Don't know to what degree bad earnings are priced in. Clearly they are to a certain extent. With stocks like FB or NFLX or FDX they probably are fully priced in. With AAPL, who knows.

If we make it through earnings season with bad results and the market holds up, that'd be very bullish. As a long term investor I'd like to see one more flush, perhaps down to the pre-COVID highs from 2020, and lots of negative prognostications about how the economy is awful, bottom is nowhere in sight, people freaking out mostly about things that have already happened, etc., and then put a lot of long-term cash to work.
Click to expand...

This is kinda how I'm thinking as well. If we hold up in Oct w/bad earnings, I'll push all-in.
 
#12,195
#12,195
mrorange211 said:
Why don't you lock in some treasury bonds or CDs for a couple of years? Great rate and no risk

I feel like today is like July 26---everyone thinks the world is gonna end and then the market bounces back to 4200.
Click to expand...
I’ve thought about T bills, but right now locking in around 4% when inflation is double that is still a loser. I think interest rates are headed higher if addressing inflation is really the Fed’s mission above all else. Getting 2% atm and going to keep waiting a bit to try and figure things out further.

I appreciate hearing the different perspectives on this thread as it helps keep me aware of the general sentiments on this whole mess
 
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#12,199
#12,199
Go aeiou said:
Not saying to invest now, but the hardest thing is the world psychologically is to invest when the market is down.
I bought VTI (total stock market) this morning. Also bought some Tesla at $244.
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Even if it goes down significantly further you can take solice that you bought 25% off of the highs!
 
#12,200
#12,200
It sure would be comforting to not have a sell off after EVERY rally. 2 or 3 consecutive up days and an up week would be a great sign that a bottom could be in the works. Still, I’ve repeated it many times, bottoms are made on time not price.
 
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