I still prefer gridlock. At least with the wild spending that’s happened over the last several years.
Morgan Stanley:
2. A Republican Win Could Introduce New Risks
Investors often associate split government with benign neglect, but that won’t necessarily be the case if Republicans take control of one or both houses of Congress.
Republican leadership could bring new risks in the form of U.S. public policy choices. Following the 2010 midterm elections, for example, gridlock led to protracted debt limit standoffs and government shutdowns. The resolution to one such standoff was the Budget Control Act of 2011, which implemented contractionary fiscal policy while the economy was still weak. Indeed, when the legislation was passed in August of that year, the unemployment rate stood at 9%. The result was weaker growth and a slower economic recovery, which partially explains why the Fed delayed raising rates until 2015.
At present, Republican leadership is signaling its intent to deploy the same tactics if the party wins majorities—in other words there is the potential for gridlock. While markets could easily dismiss these negotiations as political theater, as they have in recent years, if the economic outlook sours in 2023 in unexpected ways, the specter of the Budget Control Act could weigh on risk markets such as growth stocks and higher-yield corporate bonds. At the same time, Treasury bills could be under pressure this time around at the same time as quantitative tightening is being executed, further pressuring market liquidity.