All things STOCKS

#12,852
#12,852
There have been elections for hundreds of years. Every 2 years.

I am always surprised at the delusions surrounding this sort of thing, but I notice you guys weren’t investing based on that.
 
#12,853
#12,853
Firebirdparts said:
There have been elections for hundreds of years. Every 2 years.

I am always surprised at the delusions surrounding this sort of thing, but I notice you guys weren’t investing based on that.
Click to expand...

This time feels a bit different to me. But, I'm probably wrong. Just staying cautious. Allen is the one shorting Apple.

I don't have that verve yet. We shall see
 
#12,855
#12,855
Jax_Vol said:
This time feels a bit different to me. But, I'm probably wrong. Just staying cautious. Allen is the one shorting Apple.

I don't have that verve yet. We shall see
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I actually piled on 200 more short shares premarket around 149.50 and covered this morning in the 147’s. I don’t usually hold those very long, but when something has had a run up, shorting is usually a pretty simple play. I do wonder why Apple trades at $150 when like 3 years ago and DJT was Prez Apple traded at like $50.

What changed?
 
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#12,858
#12,858
images
 
#12,859
#12,859
VolAllen said:
I actually piled on 200 more short shares premarket around 149.50 and covered this morning in the 147’s. I don’t usually hold those very long, but when something has had a run up, shorting is usually a pretty simple play. I do wonder why Apple trades at $150 when like 3 years ago and DJT was Prez Apple traded at like $50.

What changed?
Click to expand...

I'm one of the rare ones who was never a huge Apple fan. But, they can sure sell those phones. Made a good deal with China. I'm guessing their revenue is way up from three years ago. Tremendous growth in international markets. No matter how poor, everyone seems to have a cell phone.

The market is looking quite dreary this morning.
 
#12,862
#12,862
Jax_Vol said:
Yes! Third year is typically the best for the stock market.
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That is 60 years of data. Interesting. Buy low/sell high. This is going to be an interesting year with Congress and Govt functioning the way that they currently are. Does this streak survive?
 
#12,863
#12,863
Sudden Impact said:
That is 60 years of data. Interesting. Buy low/sell high. This is going to be an interesting year with Congress and Govt functioning the way that they currently are. Does this streak survive?
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We've discussed that seasonal trend before, BUT how many of the priors was the Fed raising rates at a 0.75% clip, and reducing the balance sheet?
 
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#12,865
#12,865
Velo Vol said:
We've discussed that seasonal trend before, BUT how many of the priors was the Fed raising rates at a 0.75% clip, and reducing the balance sheet?
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I know what you are saying and I agree. Time will tell but I am going with the Trend as there are other indicators that would point to this.
In the Past, we have also encountered just as many hurdles and it seems to have made gains in spite of the hurdles.

Right now for the long term trading it is a great time to purchase.

Buy fundamentally sound companies with dividends at low prices and hold.

None of this will happen overnight but if you are building a long term portfolio, do it with income generating trades (Naked Puts) to acquire dividend paying stocks.

Once acquired based on assignment sell cover calls both will lower your cost basis.
 
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#12,867
#12,867
Sudden Impact said:
I know what you are saying and I agree. Time will tell but I am going with the Trend as there are other indicators that would point to this. In the Past, we have also encountered just as many hurdles and it seems to have made gains in spite of the hurdles.
Right now for the long term trading it is a great time to purchase.
Buy fundamentally sound companies with dividends at low prices and hold.
None of this will happen overnight but if you are building a long term portfolio, do it with income generating trades to acquire dividend paying stocks.
Click to expand...
Exactly! There is always 'something' going on. We always bounce back to new highs.
 
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#12,868
#12,868
Velo Vol said:
We've discussed that seasonal trend before, BUT how many of the priors was the Fed raising rates at a 0.75% clip, and reducing the balance sheet?
Click to expand...
On the interest rates, it's just one where rates were raised at a greater speed than that AFTER AFTER AFTER the midterms. There is a clear tendency to cut rates after the midterms, which I will presume to be random chance.

We don't know that they did that this time. The idea that rates will be higher a year from now is, at this point, imaginary. You can't just presume to compare imaginary "facts" to history. Raising rates BEFORE midterms is a super duper good way to increase returns AFTER the midterms, and that's exactly what happened over and over and it's also where we are today. So look out here for negativity bias.

As far as tightening, the balance sheet is utterly unprecedented and insane. You'd have to look at other countries to find something similar. It should be painful, and it's needed. There will certainly be many many dumb people saying that they don't want it to come, and they'd just like to continue in fairyland and how the government should confiscate everything and how nobody will ever have to work again after we adopt modern monetary theory. But that's stupid.
 
#12,874
#12,874
Velo Vol said:
This time is different?

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I have no clue... but 60 years of data would say no...
look at the crash in 88/89, the tech crash in 98? the house of cards crash in 2008/2009 as reference points and see.

Regardless, this is a great time to build A portfolio of fundamentally sound stocks with dividends for long term. for example INTC in the 20s normally trades in the 50s. just saying there are 1000s of stocks at low prices with dividends at the moment that will eventually recover.
 
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