All things STOCKS

#1,326
#1,326
Thunder Good-Oil said:
I don't know of a name, but if there's a public company that sells cancellation insurance for airlines that would be a prime short candidate. I don't know how that works though. Perhaps travel agencies and airlines offer that insurance as an add on fee rather than it being a true insurance product. I would imagine that there are a lot of travel plans being cancelled right now.

I would think that Live Nation is under pressure. Same with Churchhill Downs or any place that has big exposure through venues. Again, most likely they've all been under pressure. Not sure if they're still public, but Dover Downs, International Speedway... I think that Speedway Motorsports has already been taken private.

Hedge fund operators should be primed to exploit the carnage. SCU anybody? Private equities should also be finding robust shopping lists.

Something else virus related to consider:
Stericycle (SRCL). The coronavirus panic is surely creating a larger stream of medical waste. It helps if the procedure in HC facilities is to include all of the spent disposable masks into the red hazmat bags. But their contracts might not have much of a variable revenue component for the volume of materials removed. If they're flat rates any possible increase in volume might actually be expense side only.
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Travel insurance for the customer is sold by the airline, cruise line, etc. You can get cheaper and better coverage online from companies like Insure my Trip, Squaremouth, and Travel insured. They are reputable brokers that sell policies that are underwritten by reputable insurance companies.
The insurers might have losses, but you typically have to have a legitimate reason for canceling. "I'm afraid of covid 19" won't work unless our government has told people not to travel to a country or region or you have a "cancel for any reason" policy, and they are expensive.
Some of the cruise lines are generously allowing customers to cancel without penalties.
 
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#1,330
#1,330
headhunter15 said:
Think everything begins to calm down somewhat?
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I think that enough time will have passed in the US to better quantify the impact of the virus, at least, and allow things to be properly priced in. But, other macro factors may drag things down from there.

And I am just some idiot on VN so do not construe my comments as anything other than speculative.
 
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#1,333
#1,333
Big Gucci Sosa said:
Where is the bottom?
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SPX is most likely going to test levels around 2400 in the medium term, as this is a level from back from when traders settled up on Christmas Eve 2018. The market is going to keep seeing these big swings, just look at the options markets as proof of how traders view impending price action. Recession trades like SPY puts, Japanese Yen, Gold, and Utilities are trades where there is a big premium at the moment. That is where the big money has moved to after getting out of equities. We're going to continue seeing volatility until there's some level of equilibrium that returns to the markets. Until this virus subsides, and so to does the need for massive public health measures, markets will continue seeing wild price action.
 
#1,335
#1,335
Big Gucci Sosa said:
Well it’s green for now
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Might be a dead cat bounce too....

Here's a PSA for everyone who wants (or has) to travel. If you have refundable airfare (or if you fly Southwest), rental cars, or refundable hotels, take a look at rebooking. The savings are significant. For hotels, you can go from 1 refundable rate to another and save 30-60%. That still gives you flexibility to cancel or rebook if rates go even lower. If you are patient enough and try to cancel through the hotel (and get the right person), you will get the lower rate plus you can usually score upgrades/free stuff.
 
#1,338
#1,338
95 Vol Alum said:
I think that enough time will have passed in the US to better quantify the impact of the virus, at least, and allow things to be properly priced in. But, other macro factors may drag things down from there.

And I am just some idiot on VN so do not construe my comments as anything other than speculative.
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Sooo, you’re not a fund manager? But I have made 100k since you started giving advice.
Keep talking man.
 
#1,341
#1,341
It's been a rough week. I'm down A LOT

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#1,342
#1,342
Really ugly gap down this morning for the bulls. SPX and DJI are about to retest key support levels. IWM and COMP are already retesting. 2550 is coming soon for SPX if we break much lower than current levels.
 
#1,344
#1,344
GoVolsDR said:
Really ugly gap down this morning for the bulls. SPX and DJI are about to retest key support levels. IWM and COMP are already retesting. 2550 is coming soon for SPX if we break much lower than current levels.
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2740 or thereabouts is the key short-term level. That's Monday's low which was re-tested yesterday.

If that fails to hold, then you're probably looking at the low from December 2008 around 2350. That'd be a 30% decline from the high.
 
#1,349
#1,349
Holding SH calls and SPY puts. Shorting shares of travel and airline stocks. I'll be looking at sectors where the Implied Volatility is as reasonable as possible. Premiums are so expensive at the moment. I'm holding out of the money SH calls with premiums of 30%-50%, and these contracts expire next week. Traders have priced in a lot more negative action to the downside.
 
#1,350
#1,350
Critical resistance just broke for the SPX and DIA. There's no support on the DIA until you hit 23000. Expect the big market movers to keep selling off. This is just 5 hours of non stop selling, zero buying. We're just 1.3% away from hitting another circuit breaker on SPX.

Welcome to the bear market. RIP Bull Market, 2009-2020.
 
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