All things STOCKS

[Thunder Good-Oil]

I’m gonna load the boat on NKE puts next week

Nike sells a bunch of stuff to upper middle clientele. They might be on a roll. But they also need that Chinese slave labor to have the nice margins.

 

[Velo Vol]

Nike sells a bunch of stuff to upper middle clientele. They might be on a roll. But they also need that Chinese slave labor to have the nice margins.

Again, the multiple.

 

[Jax_Vol]

We going down today?

 

[mrorange211]

Bought 2 AAPL $134 for 12/30 at .99

 

[Jax_Vol]

Wooooooooo whoooo!!!

Santa rally caps are on..

 

[Jax_Vol]

People did not buy into that CCL guidance for next year.

 

[Velo Vol]

 

[Jax_Vol]

I read this book last spring. I'm surprised AMZN has dropped so quickly. But, not surprised it is dropping.

Bezos was a one-man gang, Without him riding herd, no telling where it bottoms out. Even if he returns part-time, I don't think he will still have that same passion and drive. AWS is carrying them for now.

Bezos himself predicted it would all someday end up back at zero. Great read!

 

[Velo Vol]

Bezos himself predicted it would all someday end up back at zero.

Why? Just in the general, every-company-eventually-falls sense?

 

[Velo Vol]

This guy (George Noble) who manages the new ETF $NOPE and hosts Twitter spaces shares @mrorange211's bearish view of TSLA

 

[Jax_Vol]

Why? Just in the general, every-company-eventually-falls sense?

Yes, we are all going to die someday. Jeff just seemed to worry they would only last 30 years. Read for yourself

Jeff Bezos Was Obsessed With Amazon's 'Inevitable' Death (businessinsider.com)

 

[05_never_again]

Yes, we are all going to die someday. Jeff just seemed to worry they would only last 30 years. Read for yourself

Jeff Bezos Was Obsessed With Amazon's 'Inevitable' Death (businessinsider.com)

I think Bezos is equating death with no longer being buzzworthy or having a trendy reputation.

In that article, he says that most big companies only stick around 30 years. Is that even accurate? All the big money center banks and investment banks in this country are very old. IBM, for example, has been around since 1911. They haven't died, and don't appear anywhere close to totally vanishing. Now, are they relevant or trendy? Absolutely not. But they aren't almost dead. I think he's being pretty dramatic here.

 

[Jax_Vol]

I think Bezos is equating death with no longer being buzzworthy or having a trendy reputation.

In that article, he says that most big companies only stick around 30 years. Is that even accurate? All the big money center banks and investment banks in this country are very old. IBM, for example, has been around since 1911. They haven't died, and don't appear anywhere close to totally vanishing. Now, are they relevant or trendy? Absolutely not. But they aren't almost dead. I think he's being pretty dramatic here.

Maybe he was just trying to keep the forces motivated.

But, as an investor (who bought some of his stock in the $3000/share range)...that line of thinking somewhat turned me off. Maybe he is just keeping it real.


Two main things that bothered me about him / them:
1. His private space company, Blue Origin, was such a hot mess for over a decade. I think it is finally coimng around.
2. Current Amazon remains me of General Electric under Jack Welch. They are just into so many things that don't align with one another. The common element was that they all were interests of Jeff at one point in time. I think they are spread a bit thin.

 

[Velo Vol]

In that article, he says that most big companies only stick around 30 years. Is that even accurate?

If, by stick around, he means at the top of the stock market.

 

[05_never_again]

Maybe he was just trying to keep the forces motivated.

But, as an investor (who bought some of his stock in the $3000/share range)...that line of thinking somewhat turned me off. Maybe he is just keeping it real.


Two main things that bothered me about him / them:
1. His private space company, Blue Origin, was such a hot mess for over a decade. I think it is finally coimng around.
2. Current Amazon remains me of General Electric under Jack Welch. They are just into so many things that don't align with one another. The common element was that they all were interests of Jeff at one point in time. I think they are spread a bit thin.

IMO Amazon is nowhere near as spread out as GE was. Amazon still is, at its core, a technology company and the technology they have developed drives every single line of business they have. Kind of like Google; Google is extremely spread out as well, but so much of what they do is driven by the technology they developed via Search. It's different lines of business, but driven by the same (or similar) underlying thing.

GE's diversification was a joke. What do healthcare, aircraft engines, and heavy equipment financing/leasing have to do with each other? There was absolutely no overlap on any level.

 

[05_never_again]

If, by stick around, he means at the top of the stock market.

He seems to be saying that they cease to exist, period. The article quotes him as saying "Companies come and go, and the companies that are the shiniest and most important of any era — you wait a few decades and they're gone." He then said he'd love to see Amazon outlive him, which sounds like he has concerns that it won't. I mean, barring some kind of corporate scandal, I'm pretty sure Amazon will still be around in 30+ years.

It's probably a virtual certainty that they won't be as buzzworthy and trendy 30 years from now; the flavor of the week, by definition, comes and goes. But I expect them to still be around.

 

[Jax_Vol]

Going up tomorrow? Strong holiday sales report

(Reuters) - U.S. retail sales rose 7.6% between Nov. 1 and Dec. 24, which encompasses a majority of the holiday season, as steep discounts lured deal-hungry consumers, a Mastercard(MA) report showed on Monday.


The increase is higher than the 7.1% growth Mastercard(MA) had forecast in September, when it anticipated consumers would pull purchases to October in the hunt for early deals.


However, this year's holiday retail sales growth is less than the 8.5% increase last year as decades-high inflation, rising interest rates and the threat of a recession turned consumers cautious.


Retailers including Amazon.com Inc(AMZN) and Walmart Inc(WMT) in the United States offered large discounts during the holiday season to get rid of excess stock and bring back inventories to normal levels.


That led to strong demand for everything from toys to electronics during the five-day-long period between Thanksgiving and Cyber Monday.


However, sales of electronics dropped 5.3% over the broader roughly two-month period, according to the Mastercard SpendingPulse report.


But sales in the apparel and restaurants categories, rose 4.4% and 15.1%, respectively, helping boost the overall number.


Online sales jumped 10.6% in the period, slightly less than the 11% increase last year, the Mastercard(MA) report said.


Meanwhile, during the cyber week, total retail sales had jumped about 11%, a separate Mastercard SpendingPulse report in late November showed.


Mastercard SpendingPulse measures in-store and online retail sales across all forms of payment. It excludes automotive sales.

 

[Jax_Vol]

Will we see typical tax harvesting selloff this week.

Or, since everyone has had the crap kicked out of them for 51 weeks....will that prevent some of the selling?

I don't need to sell any losers because I'm way down.

Guess I could sell my winners to avoid 2023 taxation...hopefully.

 

[Go aeiou]

Will we see typical tax harvesting selloff this week.

Or, since everyone has had the crap kicked out of them for 51 weeks....will that prevent some of the selling?

I don't need to sell any losers because I'm way down.

Guess I could sell my winners to avoid 2023 taxation...hopefully.

I'm sure you know, but for others that might not: Wash Sale rules
From Charles Schwab:
Q: How does the wash sale rule work?
If you want to sell a security at a loss and buy the same or a substantially identical security within 30 calendar days before or after the sale, you won't be able to take a loss for that security on your current-year tax return. However, there are some compensations: You will be able to add the amount of the loss back onto the cost basis of the replacement security, which can help with taxes later, as we'll see below. In addition, the holding period of the original security gets tacked onto to the holding period of the replacement security.
Here's an example:
Let's say you buy 100 shares of XYZ stock for $10 per share ($1,000 of stock). One year later, the stock starts dropping, so you sell your 100 shares for $8 per share—a $200 loss. Three weeks later, XYZ is trading at $6 per share and you decide that price is too good to pass up, so you repurchase the 100 shares for $600. This triggers a wash sale.
As a result, the $200 loss is disallowed as a deduction on your current-year tax return and added to the cost basis of the repurchased stock. That bumps the cost basis of your $600 of replacement stock up to $800, so if you later sell that stock for $1,000, your taxable gains will be $200 instead of $400. And because you previously held XYZ for a year, it will automatically be treated as a long-term capital gain, even if you sell it after just a few months.
So, it's not all bad news. A higher cost basis decreases the size of any future gains realized from the sale of the replacement security, thereby lowering your future tax obligation. If you sell the investment at a loss, the higher cost basis would actually increase the size of the loss for which you could claim a deduction.
And a potential upside of the extended holding period is that it would lower your tax obligation if you sold the replacement security after less than a year. (Normally, short-term capital gains from investments held for less than a year are taxed at the higher regular income tax rate, while longer-term capital gains are taxed at the lower capital gains rate).

 

[Jax_Vol]

I'm sure you know, but for others that might not: Wash Sale rules
From Charles Schwab:
Q: How does the wash sale rule work?
If you want to sell a security at a loss and buy the same or a substantially identical security within 30 calendar days before or after the sale, you won't be able to take a loss for that security on your current-year tax return. However, there are some compensations: You will be able to add the amount of the loss back onto the cost basis of the replacement security, which can help with taxes later, as we'll see below. In addition, the holding period of the original security gets tacked onto to the holding period of the replacement security.
Here's an example:
Let's say you buy 100 shares of XYZ stock for $10 per share ($1,000 of stock). One year later, the stock starts dropping, so you sell your 100 shares for $8 per share—a $200 loss. Three weeks later, XYZ is trading at $6 per share and you decide that price is too good to pass up, so you repurchase the 100 shares for $600. This triggers a wash sale.
As a result, the $200 loss is disallowed as a deduction on your current-year tax return and added to the cost basis of the repurchased stock. That bumps the cost basis of your $600 of replacement stock up to $800, so if you later sell that stock for $1,000, your taxable gains will be $200 instead of $400. And because you previously held XYZ for a year, it will automatically be treated as a long-term capital gain, even if you sell it after just a few months.
So, it's not all bad news. A higher cost basis decreases the size of any future gains realized from the sale of the replacement security, thereby lowering your future tax obligation. If you sell the investment at a loss, the higher cost basis would actually increase the size of the loss for which you could claim a deduction.
And a potential upside of the extended holding period is that it would lower your tax obligation if you sold the replacement security after less than a year. (Normally, short-term capital gains from investments held for less than a year are taxed at the higher regular income tax rate, while longer-term capital gains are taxed at the lower capital gains rate).

Yes. That is a very good reminder!

 

[Velo Vol]

 

[Firebirdparts]

In that article, he says that most big companies only stick around 30 years. Is that even accurate?

It's pretty meaningfully accurate, yes. Understand there's nothing specific about the word "most," "big" is relative, and there's no significance to the number 30. He could have said 100, but it wouldn't have made the conversation very interesting. But companies do come and go, and any reasonable person would assume that Amazon will become outmoded and someday it'll be as unprofitable as it already is right now. The retailer side of amazon does nothing to provide anything to anybody. no retailer can create value. on the web services side, who know? Lots of competition.

Sears was the Amazon of 100 years ago, there's no question about the overwhelming impact of sears home delivery. Look now and it's gone.

 

[Thunder Good-Oil]

30 years might be the limit as far as no spin offs, take overs, recapitalized, split up, what not. Some aspect of Amazon will be around for a hundred years or more.

Standard Oil doesn’t exist. But about a dozen pieces of it do. Same with AT&T. Verizon is probably the biggest remainder of Ma Bell. GE is about to be 3 companies. GM was recapitalized as a new entity. Circuit City was once a huge electronics retailer. Now they’re a used car company. They tried to become an alternative to DVDs and VHS and failed miserably. Netflix used to mail DVDs as a business model.

Once companies crack the 100 biggest in the S&P 500, they’ll be around a while. Sometimes they will end up as merger of equals or near equals. Dow/DuPont for example.

Amazon probably won’t be liquidated during anybody alive now’s lifetime. Split into AWS and retail is certainly possible. Maybe another piece as a logistics/warehouse/delivery entity.

CEOs that just maintain the current state of organizations aren’t all that typical. They are always messing around with things to put their stamp on the entity.

 

[Jax_Vol]

30 years might be the limit as far as no spin offs, take overs, recapitalized, split up, what not. Some aspect of Amazon will be around for a hundred years or more.

Standard Oil doesn’t exist. But about a dozen pieces of it do. Same with AT&T. Verizon is probably the biggest remainder of Ma Bell. GE is about to be 3 companies. GM was recapitalized as a new entity. Circuit City was once a huge electronics retailer. Now they’re a used car company. They tried to become an alternative to DVDs and VHS and failed miserably. Netflix used to mail DVDs as a business model.

Once companies crack the 100 biggest in the S&P 500, they’ll be around a while. Sometimes they will end up as merger of equals or near equals. Dow/DuPont for example.

Amazon probably won’t be liquidated during anybody alive now’s lifetime. Split into AWS and retail is certainly possible. Maybe another piece as a logistics/warehouse/delivery entity.

CEOs that just maintain the current state of organizations aren’t all that typical. They are always messing around with things to put their stamp on the entity.

Would anyone touch any of the three new GE businesses?

The medical devices part is slowly rolling out around $57ish. Barron's claims it is worth $110. But, I have my doubts. Almost like GE is tainted for me.

 

[Go aeiou]

30 years might be the limit as far as no spin offs, take overs, recapitalized, split up, what not. Some aspect of Amazon will be around for a hundred years or more.

Standard Oil doesn’t exist. But about a dozen pieces of it do. Same with AT&T. Verizon is probably the biggest remainder of Ma Bell. GE is about to be 3 companies. GM was recapitalized as a new entity. Circuit City was once a huge electronics retailer. Now they’re a used car company. They tried to become an alternative to DVDs and VHS and failed miserably. Netflix used to mail DVDs as a business model.

Once companies crack the 100 biggest in the S&P 500, they’ll be around a while. Sometimes they will end up as merger of equals or near equals. Dow/DuPont for example.

Amazon probably won’t be liquidated during anybody alive now’s lifetime. Split into AWS and retail is certainly possible. Maybe another piece as a logistics/warehouse/delivery entity.

CEOs that just maintain the current state of organizations aren’t all that typical. They are always messing around with things to put their stamp on the entity.

Yep, and CEOs tend to leave before their mistakes start catching up with them.

And then there are CEOs that get blamed for poor results they have little control over. i.e. Covid's effect on retail sales.