All things STOCKS

[Jax_Vol]

I owned academy sports (rather than Dick's) a couple years ago. I forget why I ever bought it. It's doubled since May 25, but I sold it a long time ago.

I see retailers as pretty dangerous, generally (heck, I avoid going through their doors) but they've gone up a ton over the last 10 years or so and I really don't get it. it's just an area where my expectations don't match the world. Fidelity Select Retail is typically one of their top performers when you pull the screener up and look at the highest 10 year performance.

I will look at Fidelity Select Retail. Lot of money made in retail. But I'm sure not hip enough to know which ones are making it.

Would never have guessed Dick's Sporting Goods.

 

[Thunder Good-Oil]

Getting back to the defense contractors being discounted, I don't pay much attention, but I see where Northrop has a contract to build the B-21, a whole fleet. Canada just got approval to replace their fighters with the F-35 from Lockheed. Seems positive. Northrop has really tanked.

I have ITA and DFEN on my radar. ITA and a lot of the big manufacturers are near 52 week highs. DFEN has implied volatility of 60% versus 20% for ITA. Kind of weird seeing iShares/BlackRock with a $5 billion defense ETF when they are so woke with their ESG virtue signaling and grandstanding.

PLTR isn’t close to their 52WH. It’s been crushed. They sell software, not defense hardware.

 

[Thunder Good-Oil]

Haven't followed the story super closely. However, think I hear the news say...

In order for McCarthy to get elected as the majority of the Speaker of House, he agreed to help carve some off the DoD budget.

If that is true, it would explain the broad selloff. Since the Ukraine war started, I track 6-8 of them. They are all down. For most part, they move somewhat together. No clue why NCO is leading pack today.

For 2023, I still think Defense is a good place to put part of money. Foreign Military Sales are slow moving contracts. But, if I'm a country bordering Russia, I would be stockpiling the large RTX / LMT type 'army' weapons. Stingers, Javelin, MLRS, GLMRS, etc.

Ukraine doesn’t get a lot of the best stuff. That’s what goes to our own defense and only our closest allies. Much of what’s being sent to Ukraine has been old inventory that the US was going to have to pay to decommission. Win, win. So I don’t know if that’s most beneficial to the defense contractors or the DoD budgets. I tend to think the latter. Replacement contracts are already in place.

 

[Thunder Good-Oil]

I owned academy sports (rather than Dick's) a couple years ago. I forget why I ever bought it. It's doubled since May 25, but I sold it a long time ago.

I see retailers as pretty dangerous, generally (heck, I avoid going through their doors) but they've gone up a ton over the last 10 years or so and I really don't get it. it's just an area where my expectations don't match the world. Fidelity Select Retail is typically one of their top performers when you pull the screener up and look at the highest 10 year performance.

I’m waiting on retail and regional banks until the recession at least gets rolling a bit. Equities historically won’t bottom out before the recession starts.

Unless the Fed overdoes it, I’m thinking a short and sweet recession. If 2023 isn’t 10% or better up, then 2024 will zoom.

 

[Firebirdparts]

Out with a whimper today. I agree with you on the recession. Been through a lot of them. Always optimistic.

 

[Thunder Good-Oil]

40 years ago interest rates were 15-18%, inflation was 12-15%, and unemployment was around 7.5%. This is nothing right now. It’s why we have so many art history and gender studies majors and social media influencers and not enough engineers and nurses and plumbers. Useful, productive people with valuable skills.

 

[Jax_Vol]

May be old news but...

Apple plans to stop using Broadcom chips in 2025. I'm not following chips, but if that is fresh news...AVGO should tank

 

[Go aeiou]

40 years ago interest rates were 15-18%, inflation was 12-15%, and unemployment was around 7.5%. This is nothing right now. It’s why we have so many art history and gender studies majors and social media influencers and not enough engineers and nurses and plumbers. Useful, productive people with valuable skills.

Bought our first home in 81. Mortgage rates were 18%. We were tickled pink to get a wrap around at 10.5%.

 

[Thunder Good-Oil]

Bought our first home in 81. Mortgage rates were 18%. We were tickled pink to get a wrap around at 10.5%.

Around 1983 Southern Industrial Banking Corporation had a lighted sign outside of their branch on Kingston Pike advertising 20+% CDs. One of the Butcher brothers’ criminal enterprises. They weren’t a bank. At least not the FDIC insured type. Lots of Knoxvillians were hurt by that crooked family.

 

[walkenvol]

Bought our first home in 81. Mortgage rates were 18%. We were tickled pink to get a wrap around at 10.5%.

Bought our first home in 1984 and we were happy to assume a 15.5% mortgage. Seems like new loans were in the 17% range. 5 years later bought our second home at 10%

 

[Jax_Vol]

I bought in 1990 with a 9 5/8% loan

 

[walkenvol]

Rates kept dropping and that’s when home equity lines of credit became so common. I looked at refinancing in 91/92 as rates were down in the 8’s but, they were requiring a lot of fees. First Tennessee was offering a home equity line of credit with zero fees - just asked me what the home was worth and subtracted the current mortgage to determine how much I could borrow which was more than the first mortgage. The caveat was the longest term for repayment was 7 years. I bought my mortgage down a bit from savings and converted to a 7 year loan that I had paid off in my 30’s. Was the best, luckiest financial move I ever made IMO

 

[Go aeiou]

Around 1983 Southern Industrial Banking Corporation had a lighted sign outside of their branch on Kingston Pike advertising 20+% CDs. One of the Butcher brothers’ criminal enterprises. They weren’t a bank. At least not the FDIC insured type. Lots of Knoxvillians were hurt by that crooked family.

My sister used to baby sit for Jake Butcher when he lived out on Melton hill lake. I bought a Lexus a few years later in Chattanooga, and he was the business manager there. That was after he went to prison. I had a friend that went to the Federal pen and knew him from there. I got a good deal on the car.

Yeah, banking is not for crooks.

 

[walkenvol]

My sister used to baby sit for Jake Butcher when he lived out on Melton hill lake. I bought a Lexus a few years later in Chattanooga, and he was the business manager there. That was after he went to prison. I had a friend that went to the Federal pen and knew him from there. I got a good deal on the car.

Yeah, banking is not for crooks.

Worked with a guy married to Jake’s daughter - nice lady

 

[Thunder Good-Oil]

Red again. Everything’s red. At least only around 0.5%.

 

[Velo Vol]

Workforce up 52% in three years. Wow.

 

[Jax_Vol]

Workforce up 52% in three years. Wow.

Yup. As I recall, they were killing it in 2020 and 2021.

 

[Jax_Vol]

Could it be..?

Time for an afternoon run by the bulls

 

[Firebirdparts]

You know, you can't watch everything, and I really don't look at Google. A quick look is that it's actually undervalued. I would have just assumed it was trading at a higher multiple. The current quarter growth rate is negative, and projected growth is slower than it has been.

 

[Jax_Vol]

You know, you can't watch everything, and I really don't look at Google. A quick look is that it's actually undervalued. I would have just assumed it was trading at a higher multiple. The current quarter growth rate is negative, and projected growth is slower than it has been.

I've always struggled to determine how to gauge advertising revenues. Plus, there are two classes of Google (I think?), therefore too complex for my simple brain.

Own it thru several mutual funds.

Google is my friend.

Looks like defense is back cooking. Know anything about Kratos (sp?)? Small bunch. Saw they landed a contract thru Leidos.

 

[Thunder Good-Oil]

I've always struggled to determine how to gauge advertising revenues. Plus, there are two classes of Google (I think?), therefore too complex for my simple brain.

Own it thru several mutual funds.

Google is my friend.

Looks like defense is back cooking. Know anything about Kratos (sp?)? Small bunch. Saw they landed a contract thru Leidos.

Even though there are two classes of GOOG/GOOGL stock it’s not terribly complex. John Malone makes an absolute mess out of the classes of stock of everything he touches. TCI. Liberty Media. Sirius/XM.

Alphabet/Google is, as I understand it, simply giving more votes to the GOOG shares. They are slightly more expensive than the GOOGL shares. The votes are important for institutions that want to have a say in the direction of the company. Regular retail investors are fine going with either class. I think that Page and Brin and early investors unloaded the GOOGL shares to get some cash while giving up very minimal control. Both classes of shares are very liquid.

Berkshire Hathaway has two classes of shares. The B shares were added by Buffett and they allow small investors to participate. The A shares represent about 1,500 times as much ownership per share. Buffett added the B shares so that a Unit Investment Trust would not be created to slice up shares and sell them to less sophisticated investors that would think that they are buying equity in Berkshire directly. UITs are a Wall Street invention. Some ETFs are actually UITs. One of the biggest differences is that the trust has a specific date when the trust is to be liquidated included in the legal language. You can buy shares of either A or B and have similar investments. Except that B costs around $315/share and the A costs around $480,000/share.

 

[Thunder Good-Oil]

I've always struggled to determine how to gauge advertising revenues. Plus, there are two classes of Google (I think?), therefore too complex for my simple brain.

Own it thru several mutual funds.

Google is my friend.

Looks like defense is back cooking. Know anything about Kratos (sp?)? Small bunch. Saw they landed a contract thru Leidos.

As far as advertising goes, the important thing to know is that Google and Facebook have a huge advantage tailoring ads to be targeted at specific demographics. Since they are targeted ads rather than broadcasted ads they are able to charge the ad buyers s significant premium and the ad buyers don’t mind as they know that their message is getting sent directly to their more likely customers. Adults without kids don’t need to be shown ads for toys. Men don’t need to see feminine hygiene ads. Well, at least until there were more than 2 genders recognized.

Radio and print media have especially taken a hit with the new focused advertising model.

 

[VolAllen]

Nice trading today on Spy, Dkng, Bbby, and Prty. Now longing 500 shares of Tesla to the 130’s.

 

[Thunder Good-Oil]

I like the +0.25-0.4% opens. Leaves room to slowly go up throughout the day. The huge up opens can easily be the high of the day as profits get taken after the really strong open.

As soon as I say that, watch the opposite happen and we’ll be down a percent or two before lunch.

 

[Thunder Good-Oil]

Bitcoin is off a third of a percent. It seems like the recent trend has been for BTC to foreshadow the equity averages.