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#1,454
#1,454
Freak said:
Today doesn’t make a whole lot of sense to me. Seems like an overreaction.
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It makes perfect sense, the Friday Press Conference with President Trump was timed perfectly to give a bump in the Market before the close. Wasn't a bad idea and was timed perfectly. Rose over 1100 points and kind of like a shot of steroids and within 24 hours later the Fed to near 0% interest is another dosage. Markets as you know are emotional and continue to react. This weekend more panic more shutdowns more actions taken and money is driving the market. The market is not functioning correctly because a normal recessed bear market would have a floor and because of this virus and panic, there is no floor and IMO will not be until the info is improved and people get through it.
If we knew the exact numbers of testing, recovery and deaths then we might have a more positive outlook, but without it, we will have panic and chaos.
 
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#1,455
#1,455
Freak said:
Today doesn’t make a whole lot of sense to me. Seems like an overreaction.
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Market appears to be pricing in national quarantines taking place all over the world (whether mandatory/official or not), a la Italy. I think you got a glimpse of that coming this weekend with some states/cities ordering bars shut down, etc. The Fed rate cut, IMO, is being seen by the markets as an admission the economy is effed, at least for a short period of time, rather than something that can save markets.

Even if they are not imposed by law by a government, a lot of people are going to simply stay in/around their homes for at least the next several weeks. And even when this thing eases up, I don't think too many people are going to rush out and buy airline tickets or travel for a while. A lot of people seem to be assuming there's going to be a V-shaped recovery when this is over, and perhaps that will happen in some industries, but I think it absolutely will not in others and probably not in the economy as a whole.
 
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#1,456
#1,456
05_never_again said:
Market appears to be pricing in national quarantines taking place all over the world (whether mandatory/official or not), a la Italy. I think you got a glimpse of that coming this weekend with some states/cities ordering bars shut down, etc. The Fed rate cut, IMO, is being seen by the markets as an admission the economy is effed, at least for a short period of time, rather than something that can save markets.

Even if they are not imposed by law by a government, a lot of people are going to simply stay in/around their homes for at least the next several weeks. And even when this thing eases up, I don't think too many people are going to rush out and buy airline tickets or travel for a while. A lot of people seem to be assuming there's going to be a V-shaped recovery when this is over, and perhaps that will happen in some industries, but I think it absolutely will not in others and probably not in the economy as a whole.
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I agree. This is where we find out the true colors of our country's unity and Market. Will be interesting to see the direction that 5 percenters go to aid the 95 percent controlled.
It comes down to the fact of whether our market or others can withstand this to recover. When we stop the bleeding we will see a recovery which will require all of us to do what is best for our economy.
 
#1,458
#1,458
Sudden Impact said:
It makes perfect sense, the Friday Press Conference with President Trump was timed perfectly to give a bump in the Market before the close. Wasn't a bad idea and was timed perfectly. Rose over 1100 points and kind of like a shot of steroids and within 24 hours later the Fed to near 0% interest is another dosage. Markets as you know are emotional and continue to react. This weekend more panic more shutdowns more actions taken and money is driving the market. The market is not functioning correctly because a normal recessed bear market would have a floor and because of this virus and panic, there is no floor and IMO will not be until the info is improved and people get through it.
If we knew the exact numbers of testing, recovery and deaths then we might have a more positive outlook, but without it, we will have panic and chaos.
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I get that. With the speech on Friday, and the cutting of rates, I didn't see anything happening since that warranted a 12% drop, or whatever the market was down this morning.

I certainly think we still could see more downside as the reported number of cases expand, I just thought this morning was a bit of an overreaction based on what has changed since Friday. Then again, I'm not sure why an overreaction either way should surprise anyone right now.
 
#1,459
#1,459
05_never_again said:
Market appears to be pricing in national quarantines taking place all over the world (whether mandatory/official or not), a la Italy. I think you got a glimpse of that coming this weekend with some states/cities ordering bars shut down, etc. The Fed rate cut, IMO, is being seen by the markets as an admission the economy is effed, at least for a short period of time, rather than something that can save markets.

Even if they are not imposed by law by a government, a lot of people are going to simply stay in/around their homes for at least the next several weeks. And even when this thing eases up, I don't think too many people are going to rush out and buy airline tickets or travel for a while. A lot of people seem to be assuming there's going to be a V-shaped recovery when this is over, and perhaps that will happen in some industries, but I think it absolutely will not in others and probably not in the economy as a whole.
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I guess it's a question of how much of an effect the quarantines have and whether you see them as good or bad. If the quarantines speed up the recovery, they could be seen as a positive, especially if they are only for a short period of time. Lots of unknowns though, obviously.
 
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#1,460
#1,460
Freak said:
I guess it's a question of how much of an effect the quarantines have and whether you see them as good or bad. If the quarantines speed up the recovery, they could be seen as a positive, especially if they are only for a short period of time. Lots of unknowns though, obviously.
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The quarantines ultimately could be a positive, but they'll absolutely crush economic activity for some (unknown) period of time, so prices will reflect that. And I think some sectors of the economy (travel/leisure in particular) are not going to bounce back quickly once this is over. I think there will be a chilling effect. Multiple airline CEOs have already commented about how the impact of this on their businesses is already far worse than 9/11, and it took years for them to recover from that.

They are lucky that as a group they were in the best financial shape in decades when the crisis started - industry consolidation and relatively low fuel prices have helped them the last 3-4 years. I fly on average once a month, perhaps a little more and over the last 8 years I've been working post-college it was very, very rare to be on a plane that was less than 90% full.
 
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#1,461
#1,461
Freak said:
I guess it's a question of how much of an effect the quarantines have and whether you see them as good or bad. If the quarantines speed up the recovery, they could be seen as a positive, especially if they are only for a short period of time. Lots of unknowns though, obviously.
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I think it is the difference to be proactive vs reactive vs do a little of both. The 14 day quarantines are good if everybody buys into them and they are not if we don't. Not enough testing or research to know if you can feel healthy as all get out but be a carrier vs an ill patient. More concerned about the health facilities and the problem we may face in the need for Medical Staff bedding and equipment.
The market winds will roll with the tide of the virus not just stateside but worldwide, IMO.
The US reaction IMO has been somewhere between Italy's and China's approaches plus at this moment too many Chiefs and not enough Indians.
 
#1,462
#1,462
Sudden Impact said:
I think it is the difference to be proactive vs reactive vs do a little of both. The 14 day quarantines are good if everybody buys into them and they are not if we don't. Not enough testing or research to know if you can feel healthy as all get out but be a carrier vs an ill patient. More concerned about the health facilities and the problem we may face in the need for Medical Staff bedding and equipment.
The market winds will roll with the tide of the virus not just stateside but worldwide, IMO.
The US reaction IMO has been somewhere between Italy's and China's approaches plus at this moment too many Chiefs and not enough Indians.
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Edit: The markets have to establish a Floor for this and it has not found it.
 
#1,464
#1,464
Freak said:
I guess it's a question of how much of an effect the quarantines have and whether you see them as good or bad. If the quarantines speed up the recovery, they could be seen as a positive, especially if they are only for a short period of time. Lots of unknowns though, obviously.
Click to expand...

Market won't become rational again until we flatten out infection curve some. I'm not saying the flattening will be the bottom but that should take some of the fear out. Once we get to that point, the stock price movements will actually be driven by data instead of fear
 
#1,465
#1,465
Big selloff going into close, closing just off session lows. I can't see anyway this market doesn't keep selling off. We may get an impulse up tomorrow given the huge selloff and volatility in the market, but we could very well gap down tomorrow again. Futures markets will be telling, as will the Asian markets.
 
#1,467
#1,467
GoVolsDR said:
Big selloff going into close, closing just off session lows. I can't see anyway this market doesn't keep selling off. We may get an impulse up tomorrow given the huge selloff and volatility in the market, but we could very well gap down tomorrow again. Futures markets will be telling, as will the Asian markets.
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At this point, I have made some moves and will be playing the long game.

The volatility is too much to track.

It will be down, up, down, down, up, down, etc.

Just doesn't really matter at this point.
 
#1,469
#1,469
Far downstream oil (petrol and gas retailers) businesses will hold steady more than most retailers. Their stores, with the huge markups, could be one type of business that see sales maintained or even grow. Consumers won't want to spend a couple hours per week in Walmarts and grocery stores... they'll be popping in for necessary supplies at the quick stop stores (assuming they can keep their operations open). Plus there's going to be a lot of gas burned off in the drive throughs at Chik-Fil-As and McDonalds (MCD is now closing all of their dining areas). Probably not enough revenue to offset the slow down in the economy, but they should hold up better than most. Too bad CFA is private, their business will be fantastic with all of the sit down places closing. But every business will face challenges staffing and keeping inventories up.
 
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#1,473
#1,473
We haven't had two green days in a row in a month now. Now we keep an eye on futures. Gapping down and selling off would just suck the momentum out of the room, but the selling as got to stop at some point, at least in the short term.
 
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