All things STOCKS

[DancingOutlaw]

Recession is already here. Wont be confirmed until Q2 GDP numbers come out

Before I invest in individual equities, I want to see the infection rate flatten out. We arent there yet.

A recession is two consecutive quarters of negative GDP growth. I could see this shaving half a point off GDP. But 2+% is a stretch. And you’d still need another quarter of bad news. Can’t see it happening.

 

[theFallGuy]

great reward comes to those who wait. Don't give into the panic. Hold and buy more.

 

[BigOrangeMojo]

A recession is two consecutive quarters of negative GDP growth. I could see this shaving half a point off GDP. But 2+% is a stretch. And you’d still need another quarter of bad news. Can’t see it happening.

Q2 is absolutely going to be negative. The question is will Q1 be negative. I expect the initial Q1 to be 0.X% positive but revised Q1 numbers will be lower. There's always been some funny math at times with these calculations.

 

[headhunter15]

2 months. We aren't done falling. There is just too many bad news days to come. We probably have 20k cases in the US compared to the 1500 reported. So once we stop having new infections we will calm down. I'm buying long calls on companies I'm familiar with. EZ$

Well, that’s not scary at all... I hope the economy recovers quick. I’m a teacher at a private school. Good economy = more kids.

 

[DancingOutlaw]

Well, that’s not scary at all... I hope the economy recovers quick. I’m a teacher at a private school. Good economy = more kids.

The underlying fundamentals of the economy are strong. This is not the housing crisis or inflation. I think our economy has gotten so efficient that events like this can easily knock it down as there isn’t sufficient excess capacity in the supply lines to account for it. However it is also quick to recover. Ask yourself what would keep the economy down after this virus runs its course?

 

[Go aeiou]

Medtronic is one of my never sell holdings. I'm considering adding Dexcom as well.

Medtronic literally has a place close to my heart.

 

[Go aeiou]

great reward comes to those who wait. Don't give into the panic. Hold and buy more.

Exactly, I've been selling a little at a time for about 18 months.
Now I'm buying. Buying quqlity stocks. It is a difficult thing for many people to do, but pays off in the long. Run.

 

[headhunter15]

The underlying fundamentals of the economy are strong. This is not the housing crisis or inflation. I think our economy has gotten so efficient that events like this can easily knock it down as there isn’t sufficient excess capacity in the supply lines to account for it. However it is also quick to recover. Ask yourself what would keep the economy down after this virus runs its course?

Thanks for the logic! Just hope it can pass quickly.

 

[DancingOutlaw]

Thanks for the logic! Just hope it can pass quickly.

China is reporting the lowest number of new cases in two months. Things are starting to return to normal there. People love a good panic and the cancellation of things that are popular but not necessarily integral to the overall economy (Sporting events, concerts, etc.) causes far more hysteria than this warrants. It’s being done out of abundance of caution but the side effects are exaggerated. I think this will be a near term issue and we rebound quickly when China is back to full production.

 

[Thunder Good-Oil]

China is reporting the lowest number of new cases in two months. Things are starting to return to normal there. People love a good panic and the cancellation of things that are popular but not necessarily integral to the overall economy (Sporting events, concerts, etc.) causes far more hysteria than this warrants. It’s being done out of abundance of caution but the side effects are exaggerated. I think this will be a near term issue and we rebound quickly when China is back to full production.

The trend in South Korea has been fewer new cases reported each day for going on 2 weeks now.

 

[Freak]

Thanks Frank! Really appreciate it, and collectively all Vol fans thank you for having such a great platform for us to discuss everything from Vols sports, recruiting, and investing. It's important for us to as a community help each other to try and preserve wealth in these difficult times. I'll try to post charts and go into more explanations on some of the technicals I reference. Something tells me I'll be having more spare time coming up in the future.

Fantastic. I can’t wait.

 

[OldandStillaVol]

Medtronic is one of my never sell holdings. I'm considering adding Dexcom as well.

Don’t know anything about the company but my work colleagues at the university diabetes center say the Dexcom continuous glucose monitoring system is by far the state of the art.

 

[theFallGuy]

Don’t know anything about the company but my work colleagues at the university diabetes center say the Dexcom continuous glucose monitoring system is by far the state of the art.

my wife just started doing a trial run with hers

 

[theFallGuy]

we had to do a lot of wrangling with insurance not wanting to cover it and it's not cheap either

 

[JCHateSteve]

Don’t know anything about the company but my work colleagues at the university diabetes center say the Dexcom continuous glucose monitoring system is by far the state of the art.

My dad has one. It's been a game changer for him.

 

[Thunder Good-Oil]

I'm now seeing Cintas branded GermX hand sanitizer dispensers in businesses. Never seen them before. Cintas had been a steady climber iirc.

 

[JFreak]

Finance question: Looking to use house equity to get as much $$ into the market as possible. My situation.. house market value around 675k, bought house and loan taken out for around 535k (VA w/ 0% down), owe a little under 500k. My risk tolerance is very high and I'm 20+ years from retirement. What would you guys do?

 

[1972 Grad]

Finance question: Looking to use house equity to get as much $$ into the market as possible. My situation.. house market value around 675k, bought house and loan taken out for around 535k (VA w/ 0% down), owe a little under 500k. My risk tolerance is very high and I'm 20+ years from retirement. What would you guys do?

Pay off the house asap.

 

[JFreak]

Pay off the house asap.

I mean I could.. but why? I'm on a 30 yr fixed at 3.25%. Also should mention that the house is a full time rental.

 

[Firebirdparts]

Oh wow, that's even stupider. Sell it immediately. You want money, then turn it into money.

 

[1972 Grad]

I mean I could.. but why? I'm on a 30 yr fixed at 3.25%. Also should mention that the house is a full time rental.

Maybe it's just me, but I would never mortgage my house to play the stock market. Of course, I have just lost a quarter million on paper in the market in a couple or three weeks, so maybe I'm gun shy.

 

[1972 Grad]

Can you get enough rent out of a $675K house to make it worth the effort?

 

[JFreak]

Maybe it's just me, but I would never mortgage my house to play the stock market. Of course, I have just lost a quarter million on paper in the market in a couple or three weeks, so maybe I'm gun shy.

I'm not quite at a quarter million lost but it's close. Haven't checked and don't intend to. I don't intend to sell the house for 10+ years and my job is VERY stable.

Can you get enough rent out of a $675K house to make it worth the effort?

Yes it's in a really good area with near 100% rental occupancy and sky high rents (Cali).

 

[1972 Grad]

I'm not quite at a quarter million lost but it's close. Haven't checked and don't intend to. I don't intend to sell the house for 10+ years and my job is VERY stable.

Yes it's in a really good area with near 100% rental occupancy.

Do what you like then, but as you know, there are no guarantees. Remember the old stock market saying.........…...…. "bulls make money, bears make money, but hogs get slaughtered."

 

[JFreak]

Do what you like then, but as you know, there are no guarantees. Remember the old stock market saying.........…...…. "bulls make money, bears make money, but hogs get slaughtered."

All valid points. Although I think for some younger people this could be a very good investment opportunity.