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The debt incurred and equity dilution engineered by the airlines and cruise ships from 2020 is finally starting to catch up with them....
 
So buy Frontier?

I’m thinking about buying BA instead of BRK. But there’s a good chance that there will be more of a haircut coming after that door fell off mid-flight.

Spirit Aero might take a beating in the near term. They made the door that fell off of the Boeing plane and also there will be traders confusing them with Spirit Airlines selling.

BA is one of those essential for national security names. And pretty much a duopoly. No guarantees, but DJIA components typically aren’t hot garbage.
 
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I’m thinking about buying BA instead of BRK. But there’s a good chance that there will be more of a haircut coming after that door fell off mid-flight.

Spirit Aero might take a beating in the near term. They made the door that fell off of the Boeing plane and also there will be traders confusing them with Spirit Airlines selling.

BA is one of those essential for national security names. And pretty much a duopoly. No guarantees, but DJIA components typically aren’t hot garbage.
I saw on national news last night a window on a Boeing plane was cracked on a ANA flight in Japan. Possibly not newsworthy but for the recent bad door issue. I’m guessing Boeing will also have to make good with the airlines that had their planes grounded.
 
I like IBM, but wish they were smaller with a better opportunity to grow. At least they should have the pension issue which has been a drag on the stock for more than a generation mostly behind them. I like their businesses. I think that they can compete with MSFT, GOOG, and AMZN in the cloud and AI should be in their wheelhouse.

They still do great work. Check out masters dot com for an example. Especially the hole links and following player rounds.
Plus you get a nice 4% dividend on IBM which is rare in the tech industry
 
I’m thinking about buying BA instead of BRK. But there’s a good chance that there will be more of a haircut coming after that door fell off mid-flight.

Spirit Aero might take a beating in the near term. They made the door that fell off of the Boeing plane and also there will be traders confusing them with Spirit Airlines selling.

BA is one of those essential for national security names. And pretty much a duopoly. No guarantees, but DJIA components typically aren’t hot garbage.
Being in the business, there are just no straight airline stocks that turn my crank. I own UPS, but there are different segments to their business beyond air transport. Another virus, terrorist attack, financial crisis or other Black Swan event could close the doors on a number of airlines. Only exposure I have to air travel would be owning BRK-B since they own Net Jets. The fractional ownership/ time share private jet business has done really well covid and post Covid. The DOJ shooting down JBLU taking over SPIRIT is dumb. Good lord, two legacy carriers in Delta and Northwest got together about 15 years ago as did United and Continental.
 
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The market cap of SAVE is approaching the amount of the fee that JetBlue must pay them if the merger is blocked. Down another 25% today after 50% yesterday. The Biden administration’s attempt to block the merger to protect consumers won’t be helping them after Spirit files for bankruptcy. Using the judiciary to kill an airline merger that would still result in 4 or 5 larger competitors is idiotic.

Spirit’s loss in Q3 is actually much smaller than it was in Q2.
 
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I’m not surprised because the stock has been in the ****ter for a good while now and the big boys on Wall Street have better sources than the common investor. Today’s drop is a lot of speculators thinking that SAVE goes bankrupt. JetBlue has to pay something like a $300 million fee to SAVE if the deal doesn’t happen. The market cap is now only about 5x that fee.

It’s more appropriate to say it in the Political Forum, but the Obama and Clinton cabal HATE US businesses. They hate capitalism. They hate average people having financial success and joining their elitist club. They think that tax policy should be used for social engineering.

What's a legit price point to buy in? I remember during covid it was fun to buy at 12 and sell at 16, buy 18 and sell at 24 and rinse and repeat
 
What's a legit price point to buy in? I remember during covid it was fun to buy at 12 and sell at 16, buy 18 and sell at 24 and rinse and repeat

For the long term, the price doesn’t matter. SAVE is either going to zero or will double several times. It’s looking a lot more like zero as there aren’t a lot of examples of companies pulling out of a death spiral.

Trading it is a different approach though. I think that it could be bought here after falling by something like 60% in 2 days. But I’d be closely watching a real time quote and keeping my mouse ready to click on sell.

Their only chance is for a positive Q4 earnings surprise. Although you’d think that the $300 million fee that JBLU will owe them would provide a floor.
 
Absent something crazy/appeal/buyout, SAVE is going BK. They leveraged themselves to the hilt in 2020 and they are just very poorly run....
 
In 2022, SAVE had negative cash flow from operations. In the first 9 months of 2023, same thing. They aren't even breakeven from a cash flow perspective much less anywhere near showing any kind of GAAP profit...
 
Absent something crazy/appeal/buyout, SAVE is going BK. They leveraged themselves to the hilt in 2020 and they are just very poorly run....

Looks like it. Final 2023 debt levels haven’t been announced, but they added well over another billion through Q3-2023. The JBLU fee won’t put a dent in it. I have no idea how old their fleet is.
 

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It’s been a while since I’ve executed any trades. I shorted BRK/b 2/9/2024 $360 PUTs today. In a taxable account - I’m fine with buying the shares and taking the discount on them instead of paying the IRS on an option trade.
 
Allegiant, a direct competitor, was cash flow positive from operations 2020-2023 (and had accounting profit all years except 2020).

JetBlue is cash flow positive from operations.

Southwest had a huge operational meltdown and is cash flow positive from operations all years.

AAL, which is garbage, was cash flow positive in 2021-2023.

SAVE (and Frontier) are the worst stocks in a crappy industry...
 
It’s been a while since I’ve executed any trades. I shorted BRK/b 2/9/2024 $360 PUTs today. In a taxable account - I’m fine with buying the shares and taking the discount on them instead of paying the IRS on an option trade.

Over a 70% return in 3 or 4 trading days, but I really wanted to be assigned the shares at $360 ($368 now). If the put options goes much lower I’ll have to buy to close. And maybe do it again around a $365 on a pull back on the underlying. I probably should have just bought shares around $360.
 
If you bought and held IBM since 2014, congratulations.



IBM is one of my largest individual stock holdings. It’s great to have this pop after two of my other largest holdings (HD and LMT) have gotten hammered this week.

IBM built their business as being a do everything computing vendor for their customers. Their customer retention was without peers. Then over 40 years ago they made a huge strategic misstep by hiring Microsoft to build, and then allowing them to license, MS-DOS after they had hired them to develop PC-DOS. Microsoft kept hitting home runs with Excel, Windows, incorporating the mouse, incorporating Explorer into their operating system, and building other pieces of distributed computer systems. IBM stuck with the old approach of building systems with a huge centralized computer doing the processing with terminals and workstations to access it. They even bailed out of the PC business. Then Big Blue (IBM) also had the overhang of massive pensions to continue funding and their new competitors did not have that obligation.

IBM appears to be finally getting back on a solid course and are turning into another player in newer technologies like cloud computing and AI things. I doubt that they will ever dominate the industry again like they did in the 1960s, 1970s, and early 1980s but they have found an area to thrive in once again.
 
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