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#15,528
#15,528
Anyone know anything about $LUNR? novice to stocks but coworker I have mentioned buying this. Supposed to try and land on the moon next month.
 
#15,529
#15,529
Volfanatic_20 said:
Anyone know anything about $LUNR? novice to stocks but coworker I have mentioned buying this. Supposed to try and land on the moon next month.
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Several things are red flags for me. Low single digit stock price. Recent turnover of their CFO and COO. A smallish mid-cap that has a complicated capital structure.

At least the CFO stuck around for a few weeks instead of being let go immediately. Plus they actually have had a profit. And there is a bit of institutional share ownership.

If I was to look for exposure to the industry I’d go with ARKX. I haven’t looked at their holdings but I’d guess that LUNR is one of them. Probably a lot of LMT and BA and other huge players. Cathie Wood Has struggled for several years now, but at least there is a staff of analysts looking closely at what they put in their portfolios and they’ve probably included a lot of the minor sub-contractors. Plus, monthly options are available and the near-the-money puts aren’t terribly expensive. There are no options available on LUNR.

I won’t be surprised if LUNR doubles or is cut in half in the next month. Have a flawless lunar landing and it will pop. If anything goes wrong I would expect to see it crash.

Earnings and their planned launch are in February. It should be a wild ride.
 
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#15,530
#15,530
Another possible red flag is that they went public as a SPAC less than a year ago. If they did it to become publicly traded quickly and less costly, then fine. But they might have also had not so great reasons to dodge the SEC’s scrutiny.

I also think that going with the name Intuitive Machines is a bit shady. Intuitive Surgical makes “machines” and are in an entirely different universe as far as investable companies.
 
#15,531
#15,531
The obvious thing to consider is the 52-week range of share prices.

High: $136
Low: $2.09
Current: $2.60/$2.61

It does (surprisingly) have a narrow bid/ask spread and trades about 1-2 million shares each day. It might be fun to trade leading up to next month’s moon landing.

Maybe it’s a good thing to change CFOs after they missed revenues by a huge percentage last quarter. $30 something million expected - $12 million or so booked.
 
#15,532
#15,532
@Thunder Good-Oil

Their "profit" isn't a cash profit. They are cash flow negative from operations and net income negative from operations.

Their "profit" is reversing an accounting entry on the value of earn outs and warrants. In layman's terms, they've done so bad financially they have reversed those previously accrued expenses because they won't hit those targets...

This is likely a 5x bagger or going to 0. Pure roll of the dice....
 
#15,533
#15,533
BigOrangeMojo said:
@Thunder Good-Oil

Their "profit" isn't a cash profit. They are cash flow negative from operations and net income negative from operations.

Their "profit" is reversing an accounting entry on the value of earn outs and warrants. In layman's terms, they've done so bad financially they have reversed those previously accrued expenses because they won't hit those targets...

This is likely a 5x bagger or going to 0. Pure roll of the dice....
Click to expand...

You really need to examine the details on when they are booking revenues and expenses. Maybe it’s in their SEC filings. Are they putting their expenditures on their balance sheet or has a lot of it already dropped to the bottom line? If the latter, they should be quite profitable in the coming quarters. Their executive management is scientists and engineers rather than financial guys. Could they have pressured “Bookkeeping” to recording contract revenue aggressively or since they missed the quarter so badly does that mean a lot of revenue is also sitting on the balance sheet?

6x or to zero seems very possible. I wouldn’t want to buy and hold this one. Maybe trade it. But can they keep landing NASA contracts?

When times are good, the sales executives are in charge. When times are bad the finance executives take over. I don’t know what to think when scientists and engineers are driving the ship.
 
#15,534
#15,534
Thunder Good-Oil said:
You really need to examine the details on when they are booking revenues and expenses. Maybe it’s in their SEC filings. Are they putting their expenditures on their balance sheet or has a lot of it already dropped to the bottom line? If the latter, they should be quite profitable in the coming quarters. Their executive management is scientists and engineers rather than financial guys. Could they have pressured “Bookkeeping” to recording contract revenue aggressively or since they missed the quarter so badly does that mean a lot of revenue is also sitting on the balance sheet?

6x or to zero seems very possible. I wouldn’t want to buy and hold this one. Maybe trade it. But can they keep landing NASA contracts?

When times are good, the sales executives are in charge. When times are bad the finance executives take over. I don’t know what to think when scientists and engineers are driving the ship.
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No deferred revenue on bs. Current Liabs more than 2x current assets.

It's a multi-bagger or its going to 0. It's going to need more financing to buy it some time.

They ran "earn out" through pre SPAC as a non-cash expense and now reversing it as non-cash other income since they are wildly missing financial targets.

I wouldnt touch this one but yes, I know it could go up 4x in a best case scenario...
 
#15,535
#15,535
BigOrangeMojo said:
No deferred revenue on bs. Current Liabs more than 2x current assets.

It's a multi-bagger or its going to 0. It's going to need more financing to buy it some time.
Click to expand...

It’s also possible that they have revenue on hold until meeting contractual thresholds. They delivered their apparatus to SpaceX during the most recent quarter that they’re reporting in a few weeks. But if so, how were they funding their project?
 
#15,537
#15,537
When is Elon's "flew too close to the sun moment?" It will take more than just one bad earnings report, but the stock hasn't performed well for over 2 years now and I sense people are getting impatient, even people who claim to be huge believers in the long-term story. I don't know if I've ever seen a more distracted high-level corporate executive than him.
 
#15,538
#15,538
05_never_again said:
When is Elon's "flew too close to the sun moment?" It will take more than just one bad earnings report, but the stock hasn't performed well for over 2 years now and I sense people are getting impatient, even people who claim to be huge believers in the long-term story. I don't know if I've ever seen a more distracted high-level corporate executive than him.
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Yea. If TSLA is simply a car manufacturer then the shares are WAY overvalued. If they evolve into an integrated power management and home based power system that goes mainstream then they’ll own the planet. I wonder how low it goes?

Is Elon still digging tunnels? Is SpaceX going to go public? Will Elon Musk be POTUS one day? Actually he might not be eligible.
 
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#15,539
#15,539
Thunder Good-Oil said:
Yea. If TSLA is simply a car manufacturer then the shares are WAY overvalued. If they evolve into an integrated power management and home based power system that goes mainstream then they’ll own the planet. I wonder how low it goes?

Is Elon still digging tunnels? Is SpaceX going to go public? Will Elon Musk be POTUS one day? Actually he might not be eligible.
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He wouldn't be without a Constitutional amendment. Born outside the US and neither parent is a US citizen...don't think he'd fit any possible definition of "natural born citizen." I think it is pretty clear though he has political aspirations. Not in terms of holding political office, but in terms of being a political/cultural commentator/"thought leader."

His mind is just in a million different places, and has been for several years now. I don't know how it is humanly possible for him to continue at the pace he's at for much longer.
 
#15,540
#15,540
05_never_again said:
When is Elon's "flew too close to the sun moment?" It will take more than just one bad earnings report, but the stock hasn't performed well for over 2 years now and I sense people are getting impatient, even people who claim to be huge believers in the long-term story. I don't know if I've ever seen a more distracted high-level corporate executive than him.
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I would say It was a long time ago. He just gets away with a lot.

The car business is cruel. People who don’t think so are simply not smart people.
 
#15,542
#15,542
@Thunder Good-Oil thanks for all the info on LUNR. What website or date source are you using to get the info on the company that quickly?

Also any books or videos you can recommend to watch to get more educated in this area?

Again, thanks for the advice.
 
#15,543
#15,543
Volfanatic_20 said:
@Thunder Good-Oil thanks for all the info on LUNR. What website or date source are you using to get the info on the company that quickly?

Also any books or videos you can recommend to watch to get more educated in this area?

Again, thanks for the advice.
Click to expand...

I usually go to the apps for my accounts. E-trade. Schwab. Fidelity. Morgan Stanley. Also just googling companies (or their stock symbol followed by “stock quote”). Wikipedia is good for getting the basics about companies and their businesses.

Investopedia dot com might be the best source to search various terms and concepts to get a really good explanation without getting too complicated.

Motley Fool (fool dot com), but they’ll work on getting you to subscribe.

Yahoo Finance.

If you don’t have a brokerage account, open one at Schwab and use their online resources. I don’t think they even have a minimum to open an IRA account. You might even be able to use most of their education links without funding an account.

Then the SEC dot gov if full of info about listed companies, but those filings aren’t simple to understand. But even with their complexity there are good nuggets (like competitors) that can be found.

The basic links off of brokerage apps typically don’t provide much info on a company’s debt load. It’s a really important thing to know to assess risk. Some will have research reports that do provide more details about companies.

Also, The Wall Sreet Journal has been promoting their online subscriptions for $1/week right now (for 52 weeks - then they’ll increase it to about $10/week).

CNBC. Fox Business News. Bloomberg TV. Lots of podcasts and YouTubes on just about any subject.

Warren Buffett’s annual letters to Berkshire-Hathaway (BRK) shareholders are very good to read as well.

Vol Nation. There are posters that are well versed in options, crypto, taxes, etc.

Company websites. Most have a primary link “INVESTORS” and after clicking there annual reports and SEC filings are typically linked as well.
 
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#15,548
#15,548
The financial world is moving fast and furious this week, but the Fed remained the focus Thursday morning. Fed Chair Jerome Powell, while cementing a pivot in the central bank's rate plans, gave investors looking for quick interest rate cuts a wake-up call. He hinted that he views it unlikely that the bank would begin to cut rates at the Fed's next meeting in March, something that was viewed largely as a toss-up earlier this week.


Indeed, according to the CME FedWatch tool, investors were pricing in about a two-thirds chance of another hold at the March meeting, while almost all bets are on a small — or larger — cut come May.
 
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#15,549
#15,549
Thunder Good-Oil said:
Butt ugly day for me today. Especially GOOGL (-7.5%), IBM, HD, AAPL, BX, MLM, and UPS. All good quality stocks. Maybe some program selling going on to lock in January gains.
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Watching UPS. Looking to add shares once this stabilizes. Was a little too soon taking a position in it, but I’m fine watching and adding when things improve. I own AAPL, IBM and UPS. Likely will for the next ten years. Stops in, of course if something starts a sell off.
 
#15,550
#15,550
Thunder Good-Oil said:
The financial world is moving fast and furious this week, but the Fed remained the focus Thursday morning. Fed Chair Jerome Powell, while cementing a pivot in the central bank's rate plans, gave investors looking for quick interest rate cuts a wake-up call. He hinted that he views it unlikely that the bank would begin to cut rates at the Fed's next meeting in March, something that was viewed largely as a toss-up earlier this week.


Indeed, according to the CME FedWatch tool, investors were pricing in about a two-thirds chance of another hold at the March meeting, while almost all bets are on a small — or larger — cut come May.
Click to expand...
Too soon to cut rates, imo. Still not at 2% inflation. I thought the new norm might be north of 2%, but looks like the Fed will get pretty close. A lot of layoffs between JPM, UPS and others, though. So…a cut this year wouldn’t surprise me if things head south in a hurry.
 
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