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DJT

I logged in to see how expensive the put options are. As soon as I was on Schwab, hadn’t even entered the symbol, and there’s a notification about technical issues placing options orders on DJT.

I don’t expect the stock to do well LT. The popular trade is going to be put buying. Seriously thinking about selling puts - but I do not want to be assigned any DJT shares.
 
NEW YORK, March 26 (Reuters) - Short sellers targeting Digital World Acquisition and Trump Media & Technology Group Corp have racked up $158 million in paper losses this year, according to data from financial technology and analytics firm S3 Partners.

The losses included about $61 million due to Trump Media & Technology Group shares surging more than 36% on Tuesday in their debut on the Nasdaq that comes more than two years since its merger with a blank-check firm was announced, S3 data showed. (Reporting by Saqib Iqbal Ahmed)
 
Posted at 12:03pm - DJT is currently (2:23pm) up 48% today

March 26 (Reuters) - Trump Media & Technology Group shares surged more than 36% on Tuesday in their debut on the Nasdaq that comes more than two years since its merger with a blank-check firm was announced.

At $68.28 per share, the company's market capitalization was $9.25 billion on an undiluted basis. Trading in the shares under the new ticker "DJT" was briefly halted just after the opening bell due to volatility.

Donald Trump's majority stake in TMTG was last valued at $5.38 billion, although lock-up restrictions for six months could prevent him from selling or borrowing against his shareholding.

"The valuation of the business is rich relative to its underlying fundamentals, but I would not get in front of it in the near term," said Thomas Hayes, chairman of Great Hill Capital.

"This valuation may be more of a proxy on the enthusiasm of supporters for Trump than a reasonable estimate of underlying business prospects."

TMTG was the third-biggest percentage gainer across U.S. exchanges at 11:54 a.m. ET, according to LSEG data. Retail trader-focused social media and trading platform Stocktwits listed it as the most trending stock.

Shares of blank-check firm Digital World Acquisition Corp, which is now TMTG, had surged more than 35% on Monday after completing its merger.

TRUMP'S FINANCIAL WOES

Trump, who is facing four criminal trials in his race to U.S. presidency, has been struggling to raise money for his campaign and legal expenses.

Meanwhile, a pause to a ruling that would have blocked New York state authorities from seizing his assets bought Trump some financial breathing room as he tries to build a campaign war chest and keep his real-estate empire intact.

The deal will inject $300 million cash to Truth Social, which had lost $10.6 million from its operations in the first nine months of 2023.

The company also provides a way for supporters of Trump to bet on his resurgence as a political figure, as evidenced by shares of shell company Digital World Acquisition nearly tripling in value this year.

A Reddit user, Chester-Ming, posted "the (Trump) hype has the potential to offset everything - ****** fundamentals, insane dilution and more", on the 15 million-strong "wallstreetbets" investor forum, although the user warned that Trump could potentially cut his stake.

Digital World said in a filing last month that Trump may divest his stake in Truth Social and cease any involvement in its management based on how his bid for president goes.

The special purpose acquisition firm signed its merger agreement with Trump's company in October 2021 and since then, has been the target of investigations by the U.S. Department of Justice.

It reached an $18 million settlement with the U.S. securities regulator over inaccurate disclosures in July last year.

Shareholders voted in favor of the deal last week, more than a month after the regulator gave the green light for the deal. (Reporting by Medha Singh, Yuvraj Malik and Jaspreet Singh in Bengaluru; Editing by Arun Koyyur)
 
What kind of dumbass quotes one WSB user? What is the world coming to?

I agree with the random poster though. I think that Trump will cash out as soon as any window opens. But until he does DJT is going to be wild.

Since posting the option 2 hours ago, the underlying has fallen $15-$20 to $57ish. The 4/12 $70 put is now $23.5/$26.5

Buying puts is the all too obvious trade. Individuals are likely going to lose. After shares settle I think that the trade is to sell near term puts.
 
zero chance I would short DJT

Don't underestimate the apes dude. This thing could moon

Certainly not with the current hysteria. But if shares are considerably higher from here once things settle down it could work. Right now those that are MAGA are bidding it up while the rest are bidding up the put options. The pricing of this security might never become orderly and traditional valuation metrics might never apply. I think long term it isn’t investable. But I had similar thoughts about Facebook shares being overvalued when it went public.

Sometime ahead of Trump getting the green light to commence unloading his shares could be a good time to short/buy puts.

X/Twitter is beating Truth out of the gate. Half the country is fed up with Meta and Alphabet manipulating the news feeds. Can BOTH X and Truth be viable options with valid business models? The alternative social media platform could send Truth considerably higher. I’m not thinking from a technical angle Truth is going to be anything special. But Donald can drive content. But Truth also will have to sell advertising and half the country could be offended by any company buying advertising on the Truth platform.

Too many variables. It could go anywhere. But the implied volatility will make for expensive stock options. Selling them is enticing. The options hedging strategists might be cleaning up on the retail investor interest in going long puts AND calls.

Probably too much risk and unknowns for me to participate - but I’ll watch a bit.
 
Certainly not with the current hysteria. But if shares are considerably higher from here once things settle down it could work. Right now those that are MAGA are bidding it up while the rest are bidding up the put options. The pricing of this security might never become orderly and traditional valuation metrics might never apply. I think long term it isn’t investable. But I had similar thoughts about Facebook shares being overvalued when it went public.

Sometime ahead of Trump getting the green light to commence unloading his shares could be a good time to short/buy puts.

X/Twitter is beating Truth out of the gate. Half the country is fed up with Meta and Alphabet manipulating the news feeds. Can BOTH X and Truth be viable options with valid business models? The alternative social media platform could send Truth considerably higher. I’m not thinking from a technical angle Truth is going to be anything special. But Donald can drive content. But Truth also will have to sell advertising and half the country could be offended by any company buying advertising on the Truth platform.

Too many variables. It could go anywhere. But the implied volatility will make for expensive stock options. Selling them is enticing. The options hedging strategists might be cleaning up on the retail investor interest in going long puts AND calls.

Probably too much risk and unknowns for me to participate - but I’ll watch a bit.

A company run by people with no experience running a media or tech company and without any type of marketing or sales force...Yeah, I'm not buying any kind of long term bull case here...
 
Should I sell AMZN at current ATH?

It depends. For me it’s a core holding that I might never sell. A frequent trader will probably want to sell here and try to buy it back cheaper. Short sellers might be insane.

Taking a profit is never a bad idea. Selling a portion might be a good strategy.

I like the business. They aren’t afraid to innovate. How long have Amazon trucks been around? I see them rolling through the neighborhood about everyday. They spent a lot building out distribution facilities over the last several years. That (in anddition to their track record) could explain the pricey P/E.

They are also a huge retailer that really doesn’t have to carry nearly the same level of inventory to support that.

They are a peerless logistics and distribution company in the consumer sectors.

The potential separation of AWS from the legacy business provides a solid floor for the valuation. Some say that right now shareholders are basically getting AWS for free.

Morgan Stanley as of yesterday:

Our $200 PT implies paying ~26x 2025 FCF (implying a 0.6X multiple on FCF vs. growth, a
~40% discount to tech peers) or ~34x EPS (implying a 0.8X PEG, a ~18% discount to tech
peers).

Risks to Upside
- Faster than expected AWS rev growth and margin expansion
- 1-day shipping cost transition goes faster than expected
- Amazon succeeds in expanding its TAM (logistics, advertising, grocery, etc)

Risks to Downside
- Investments step up and continue for longer than expected
- Unit growth slows
- AWS revenue decelerates and /or margins decline
 
It depends. For me it’s a core holding that I might never sell. A frequent trader will probably want to sell here and try to buy it back cheaper. Short sellers might be insane.

Taking a profit is never a bad idea. Selling a portion might be a good strategy.

I like the business. They aren’t afraid to innovate. How long have Amazon trucks been around? I see them rolling through the neighborhood about everyday. They spent a lot building out distribution facilities over the last several years. That (in anddition to their track record) could explain the pricey P/E.

They are also a huge retailer that really doesn’t have to carry nearly the same level of inventory to support that.

They are a peerless logistics and distribution company in the consumer sectors.

The potential separation of AWS from the legacy business provides a solid floor for the valuation. Some say that right now shareholders are basically getting AWS for free.

Morgan Stanley as of yesterday:

Our $200 PT implies paying ~26x 2025 FCF (implying a 0.6X multiple on FCF vs. growth, a
~40% discount to tech peers) or ~34x EPS (implying a 0.8X PEG, a ~18% discount to tech
peers).

Risks to Upside
- Faster than expected AWS rev growth and margin expansion
- 1-day shipping cost transition goes faster than expected
- Amazon succeeds in expanding its TAM (logistics, advertising, grocery, etc)

Risks to Downside
- Investments step up and continue for longer than expected
- Unit growth slows
- AWS revenue decelerates and /or margins decline
Thank you! I appreciate y’all’s posts so much. I would want to by back cheaper but I know you can never time the market. It cost me over the past few months. Sold Verizon after a pop expecting a pull back and it never has.
 
How high do yall think NVDA goes to? Heard someone say 1,000 per share price target

Larry Fink was just on CNBC and talked about the massive amount of investment needed for AI. That should translate to lots of revenue for NVDA for a long time. $1,000 should be a slam dunk. The question is when? INTC is ramping up. AMD is a serious competitor. TSM is in there battling as well.

As with any equity trading on high expectations, they can crash hard and fast.
 
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Morgan Stanley:

Valuation Methodology and Risks

Advanced Micro Devices (AMD.O)
Our $198 PT for AMD equals ~45x base case FY2025e EPS of $4.21, reflecting further share
gains at the expense of Intel, and roughly flat y/y growth in 2023 - in line with the other compute semis names.

Risks to Upside
- PC and Zen server share gain accelerates as Zen adoption picks up; Intel's competitive
response is less impressive than expected
- Server refresh drives datacenter revenue above expectations
- MI300X outperforms expectations

Risks to Downside
- Intel's server CPUs in 2024 and 2025 stifle AMD's momentum and allow it to regain
share
- AMD loses graphics share to NVIDIA
- MI300X underperforms expectations

NVIDIA Corp. (NVDA.O)
~44x our MW CY25 EPS estimate of $22.70, a premium to peers, reflecting the expansion in
all AI names as well as our higher conviction in estimates given NVIDIA’s higher AI exposure.
We believe that NVIDIA should trade at a premium given its higher probability of upward revisions in the near term.

Risks to Upside
- Growth in training and inference propel data center revenue
- Gaming sales accelerate as GPU based AI PCs gain traction
- DGX platforms gain traction, especially among enterprise customers

Risks to Downside
- AI end markets don't materialize as expected, customers sharply reduce GPU purchases
- AMD reemerges as a viable GPU competitor
- Cloud customers are able to develop competitive custom hardware
 
LLY literally has a miracle drug in Mounjaro (sp?). Once in a decade type breakthrough.

Five star buy load the boat around $750ish. Demand is far exceeding supply.
I sold my position in J&J and went heavy Eli Lilly. I also bulked up on NVDA. Both in my Roth IRA. The only thing I don‘t like right now is all the geopolitical uncertainty with all the wars and threats of war in the Middle East.
 
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