All things STOCKS

[95 Vol Alum]

If you had 20+k sitting in your bank account and you didn't need to use it for anything what would you do with it? How would you invest it say for 5 to 10 years give or take? What would be the best roi?

80-90% VTI 10-20% BND

 

[@1RBFjr]

It’s not a bad time to buy bond ETFs either. Pretty low risk. Good yields. Will increase in value with every interest rate cut. I recently added BND looking to do better than a bank account in the next 6 months.

The best idea for about $20k to to buy the inflation protected government debt through TreasuryDirect dot com. I Bonds. There are annual limits and withdrawal restriction, but the interest paid is very good. I think that you have to open an online account with them and can not buy through a brokerage account like Schwab, E-Trade, or Fidelity.

I bonds — TreasuryDirect

www.treasurydirect.gov

Bought, cashed in, and still have I bonds. Like you said, great rates. You do have to buy directly from the Treasury, also like you said. I’m pretty sure you can’t touch the money for a year, fwiw. We were parking it for over a year, so didn’t investigate what happened if you wanted it back in less than a year.

 

[05_never_again]

She underperformed all the way to 2020, had a 12-18 month run where she and pretty much every person in the stock market made a ton of money, got on TV a bunch, and has woefully underperformed in 2022, 2023, and 2024....

In a decade long bull market, she significantly underperformed 85% of the time

All you need is one big successful "stick your neck out" moment and they'll keep having you on the talking circuit. Peter Schiff, Nouriel Roubini, Kyle Bass, Michael Burry, the list goes on. You really only have to be right once, and in dramatic fashion. Although I've still never seen anyone get a pass like Cathie.

There's a big difference between being a great analyst and being a great PM. Cathie might be good at the former, but is horrible at the latter. Her old boss at AB even said this:

The Rise and Fall of Wall Street’s Most Controversial Investor

Cathie Wood built a thriving brand out of price-prediction porn — then the tech bubble popped.

nymag.com

 

[Freedom]

Thoughts on Palantir (PLTR) ?

Seems like the backers of it think it could windup being the AI version of Lockheed Martin. I’m not sure what to think of it personally.

It’s had a big week and is something you can get a lot of value from long term.

 

[Thunder Good-Oil]

Thoughts on Palantir (PLTR) ?

Seems like the backers of it think it could windup being the AI version of Lockheed Martin. I’m not sure what to think of it personally.

It’s had a big week and is something you can get a lot of value from long term.

$50B market cap
271x p/e
$0.09 eps
No dividend
16x book value
$1.9B sales (+20% year over year / +9% qtr over qtr)
($374M) net loss

Q4 2023 and 2024 outlook were released this week so the analysts are probably still digging into the data.

Bears Say Malik Ahmed Khan, CFA, Equity Analyst, 6 Feb 2024

By not selling to countries or companies that are antithetical to its mission and cultural values, Palantir has self-restricted its growth opportunities.

Palantir’s AI platform is off to a good start, but we anticipate robust AI competition in the years ahead.

Palantir’s executive team has made questionable strategic decisions in the past. While past performance isn’t necessarily indicative of future results, the missteps could merit caution from potential investors.

 

[Thunder Good-Oil]

Bulls Say Malik Ahmed Khan, CFA, Equity Analyst, 6 Feb 2024

Palantir has strong secular tailwinds as the AI/ML market is expected to grow rapidly due to the exponential increase in data harvested by organizations.

With products targeting both commercial and governmental clients, Palantir has a distributed top line, with noncyclical governmental revenue insulating the overall top line during lean times.

Palantir’s focus on modular sales could lead to substantially more commercial clients, which the firm could subsequently upsell.

 

[Thunder Good-Oil]

Business Strategy & Outlook Malik Ahmed Khan, CFA, Equity Analyst, 18 Jan 2024

We believe Palantir is well placed for long-term success as a leader in artificial intelligence/machine learning platforms. Its two main platforms, Gotham and Foundry, are well suited to help governments and commercial clients harness the power of data. Palantir’s platforms stand to materially benefit as
organizations seek to expand their use of data to inform business decisions. We expect this secular tailwind to allow the company to land more clients while also expanding revenue from existing ones.

Big Data is ubiquitous and is harvested from almost every touch point across an organization. However, it’s not a guarantee that all AI/ML projects will lead to wonderful business outcomes, as organizations often fail to appreciate the complexities and intricacies within a multilayered data science project. AI/ML platforms like Gotham and Foundry enable organizations to develop solutions that leverage Big Data and result in business and operational efficiencies.

As a key player in this space, Palantir has a strategy of focusing on high-value, large organizations and developing bespoke AI/ML solutions that fit their business needs. While this strategy has led to the company landing large clients (both governments and commercial) that spend millions of dollars on its platforms, it has stunted customer growth as Palantir’s platforms are seen as too expensive for many large organizations. To counteract this, Palantir has shifted to a modular sales strategy with customers now able to purchase specific modules instead of onboarding an expensive platform at the onset. This is coupled with a usage-based pricing model that allows Palantir to land customers with low annual spending and ramp their expenditure on its platform up over time by either increasing usage or selling the customers additional modules.

We have a positive outlook on Palantir’s business and expect the firm to demonstrate financial success in both the governmental and commercial end markets. As the firm expands its top line via upselling and landing new clients, we also expect material margin expansion as the business grows and matures.

 

[Majors]

Thoughts on Palantir (PLTR) ?

Seems like the backers of it think it could windup being the AI version of Lockheed Martin. I’m not sure what to think of it personally.

It’s had a big week and is something you can get a lot of value from long term.

PLTR and ARM both had good weeks.

AMD has been the value for AI for 2024
NVDA on 2/21 could blow up and go to another level

 

[Freedom]

PLTR and ARM both had good weeks.

AMD has been the value for AI for 2024
NVDA on 2/21 could blow up and go to another level

I like ARM way more than PLTR mainly because their CEO isn’t the cult of personality type and they are an integral hardware provider for AI.

Whatever the SaaS value PLTR currently provides idk why that’s not something Amazon or Microsoft would eventually be able to do.

 

[Majors]

I like ARM way more than PLTR mainly because their CEO isn’t the cult of personality type and they are an integral hardware provider for AI.

Whatever the SaaS value PLTR currently provides idk why that’s not something Amazon or Microsoft would eventually be able to do.

I punted on getting ARM weeks ago and missed yesterdays huge gain.

 

[Volfanatic_20]

Another dumb question. How to know when to sell? Do I look at a certain profit amount?

 

[Thunder Good-Oil]

Another dumb question. How to know when to sell? Do I look at a certain profit amount?

Depends what you’re buying. Also taxes should be taken into account. If you can keep an investment for a year (in a taxable account - not a tax deferred (IRA/401k) or Roth account) it will get the more favorable long term capital gains treatment from the IRS.

If speculating, locking in profits (or SOME of the profits) isn’t a bad idea. If investing for the long term and buying great companies, hold them forever. You can borrow against stocks if you need cash (but keep the loan percentage VERY small).

It’s easier to find ETFs to buy and hold. Let the Wall Street professionals keep up with how and what individual companies are doing.

Another school of thought is to cut your losses quickly. Several in here routinely place stop loss sell limit orders on their holdings to accomplish that.

Knowing when to sell is the most difficult aspect of stock trading. But there are a couple of relevant sayings. Never be sorry when taking a profit. And NOBODY is going to routinely buy at the exact bottom or sell at the exact top.

Also, avoid frequent trading. Most traders that are going in and out of investments often don’t keep up compared to patiently investing.

 

[Vol737]

Watching Larry Summers on Bloomberg’s Wall Street Week. Usually get and grab my coffee on Saturdays to watch that and Barron’s Round Table. Thinks Powell’s “2%” inflation is too tight amid all the stimulus, growing debt and will trend above that persistently. Along with Summers, Chairman of the CBO was on another channel saying the debt must be addressed now and is problematic.

 

[Go aeiou]

Watching Larry Summers on Bloomberg’s Wall Street Week. Usually get and grab my coffee on Saturdays to watch that and Barron’s Round Table. Thinks Powell’s “2%” inflation is too tight amid all the stimulus, growing debt and will trend above that persistently. Along with Summers, Chairman of the CBO was on another channel saying the debt must be addressed now and is problematic.

raise taxes

 

[Vol737]

raise taxes

I’m sure that’s coming.

 

[Firebirdparts]

It'll be interesting to see if any adults are identified over the next 10 or 20 years.

I have looked for years for video of Ross Perot's speech about how the government of children was in his words "unconscionable". It would be hilarious to day to see him talking about that when the national debt was 1/10 of what it is now.

Oh gosh, I found it. But the debt is 1/20th of what it is now:

Enjoy!

 

[Velo Vol]

 

[BigOrangeMojo]

Selling your winners and holding your losers is like cutting the flowers and watering the weeds.

 

[hog88]

raise taxes

Yeah, let's give them more money to spend.

 

[Go aeiou]

Yeah, let's give them more money to spend.

No, they promise to pay down the debt. They will not spend it.
Well, it was a reply about the problems in the economy. Inflation is too high and and the national debt is too high.
If you raise taxes people will have less to spend , and the economy should slow. The addtional taxes raised can be used to pay down the debt.
So in theroy it works, but .....
And other things good and bad would happen. i.e. possibly more unemployment.

 

[05_never_again]

It'll be interesting to see if any adults are identified over the next 10 or 20 years.

I have looked for years for video of Ross Perot's speech about how the government of children was in his words "unconscionable". It would be hilarious to day to see him talking about that when the national debt was 1/10 of what it is now.

Oh gosh, I found it. But the debt is 1/20th of what it is now:

Enjoy!

The nominal size of the debt doesn't matter. It's % to GDP does, and that's way up too.

 

[Go aeiou]

It'll be interesting to see if any adults are identified over the next 10 or 20 years.

I have looked for years for video of Ross Perot's speech about how the government of children was in his words "unconscionable". It would be hilarious to day to see him talking about that when the national debt was 1/10 of what it is now.

Oh gosh, I found it. But the debt is 1/20th of what it is now:

Enjoy!

...

 

[Volfanatic_20]

Anyone buy LUNR? up 105% in last 5 days and potentially landing on the moon on Thursday.

 

[SpaceCoastVol]

I sold some put options on SMCI this afternoon. That and NVDA are the lion's share of money invested into AI. I've sold a bunch of puts on NVDA this year as well.

Neither are for the faint of heart though

 

[Thunder Good-Oil]

I sold some put options on SMCI this afternoon. That and NVDA are the lion's share of money invested into AI. I've sold a bunch of puts on NVDA this year as well.

Neither are for the faint of heart though

I assume that they’ll be everywhere in a few years, but I’m trying to get my arms around trillion dollar companies. They’re like 1,000 $1 billion companies, 100 $10B, or 10 $100B companies.

I expect that MSFT, GOOG, AAPL, and AMZN will own the AI space along with NVDA. But all of them are already such large market caps - how much more can they grow?