All things STOCKS

#15,877
#15,877
Majors said:
One of those days for big gains across the board.
Click to expand...

The huge short term swings make little sense.

Even HD is participating today. They’ve lagged over the last couple of years. I’d love to see it double. My largest non-fund holding.

AAPL is maybe starting a move after kind of being a tech laggard. At least compared to NVDA and 4 or 5 of the other Mag 7s.

I think I heard on CNBC that ORCL actually missed on their earnings. I guess they must have said “generative AI” in their earnings release.

No matter what individual stock it is - they all get smashed a couple of times every year.
 
  • Like
Reactions: walkenvol and tbh
#15,880
#15,880
Granola said:
Broadcom stock up 8% after hours plus announced stock split.
Click to expand...

I screwed up by not paying attention a few months ago. I had shares of VMWare and by not making a selection I received cash instead of AVGO shares. Created a taxable event and I think that the arbitrage also didn’t equalize the exchange.
 
  • Like
Reactions: tbh, Granola and DocVOLiday
#15,882
#15,882
Carp said:
NVDA up another 2% in pre-market.
Click to expand...

Saw a headline that NVDA might eventually be 15% of the SP500.

They have a multi-year backlog of orders. The analysts can pretty accurately translate that to earnings and determine a theoretical present value. I guess the shares are creeping up to that target value instead of popping right to it. The risk might be exclusively in some sort of disruption or miss rather than the bull case of blowing through the upside - I suppose that the gaming GPU biz could exceed expectations. But with each passing day is the AI side making the gaming side a minor piece? It never hurts to have multiple revenue streams to support the base though.

As much as NVDA has advanced, there almost has to be a massive downside day or week ahead. But it would be a buying opportunity. The institutions that missed the run up will be all over the shares if they go on sale.
 
  • Like
Reactions: walkenvol, Majors and Carp
#15,884
#15,884
I think I’m going to add a couple shares of GEHC. I’ve had a limit to but at $70 for a couple of weeks but might go ahead and up test to around the current Bud/ask. 18x forward multiple (profitable now). $35B market cap.

Demographics. Old people will need lots of imaged innards. I do wonder if they have significant revenue streams after the initial installs of the expensive machines.
 
#15,889
#15,889
Jax_Vol said:
Rule # 1: Never try to catch a falling knife

With that said, this Celsius Drink (CELH) down 20% due somewhat to one week of declining sales seems like a c-r-a-z-y overreaction. Do realize that a Morgan Stanley note of caution is a really big deal.

Any thoughts from the peanut gallery?

Thinking of grabbing a few shares here in the $75-76 range. Don't have the guts to wager much on it.
Click to expand...

I’ve been in on CELH for a bit and it’s been great. Volatility comes with the package, history shows sticking with it has its benefits so I’m gonna continue buying until there’s hard evidence not too. I plan on holding onto it for a while.
 
#15,890
#15,890
Freedom said:
I’ve been in on CELH for a bit and it’s been great. Volatility comes with the package, history shows sticking with it has its benefits so I’m gonna continue buying until there’s hard evidence not too. I plan on holding onto it for a while.
Click to expand...
If you can handle the volatility, that is a good pick. I lost my butt on it and bailed out. But, still think it might be a good play.

Are the drinks selling like they were a year ago? That is my question.

I used to see the shelf case happy empty; not, not as much.

#LiveFit
 
#15,891
#15,891
Jax_Vol said:
If you can handle the volatility, that is a good pick. I lost my butt on it and bailed out. But, still think it might be a good play.

Are the drinks selling like they were a year ago? That is my question.

I used to see the shelf case happy empty; not, not as much.

#LiveFit
Click to expand...

From what I understand, what is causing the current decline is that there is some weekly Nielsen sales data that has shown a decrease in sales the last few weeks, and an analyst is using this to suggest the fun times are beginning to end.

We’ll see what happens, I think it still has legs long term. Seems like the selloff is only focused on the short term prospects.
 
  • Like
Reactions: Jax_Vol
#15,892
#15,892
Freedom said:
From what I understand, what is causing the current decline is that there is some weekly Nielsen sales data that has shown a decrease in sales the last few weeks, and an analyst is using this to suggest the fun times are beginning to end.

We’ll see what happens, I think it still has legs long term. Seems like the selloff is only focused on the short term prospects.
Click to expand...
I hope so as well. Do you drink them?
 
#15,894
#15,894
Freedom said:
From what I understand, what is causing the current decline is that there is some weekly Nielsen sales data that has shown a decrease in sales the last few weeks, and an analyst is using this to suggest the fun times are beginning to end.

We’ll see what happens, I think it still has legs long term. Seems like the selloff is only focused on the short term prospects.
Click to expand...

I think it’s slowing sales growth rather than a decrease in sales.

A year or 2 ago sales were increasing by over 100%. IIRC, now sales are growing around 40-50%.

IMO they need to get their earnings growing to accelerate share price. P/E is around 70x. I think they recently had a big draw down in their inventory which hurts earnings as COGS would increase. But that is a short term earnings issue.

Schwab gives them a D rating. Morningstar a 2-star.

$14.5 billion market cap. Coke is $270 billion.
 
  • Like
Reactions: Freedom
#15,895
#15,895
Morgan Stanley:

Weak Category and CELH Share Trends in Scanner Data: The US energy drink
category has slowed further in 2Q along with most beverage categories, reflecting
low-end consumer weakness and softness in the gas & convenience channel, and
secondarily some weather headwinds. Energy category sales in NielsenIQ tracked
channels have slowed from +8.5% in 4Q, to +4.1% in 1Q, and +1.6% in 2QTD, with
L4W essentially flat, While CELH continues to drive the lion's share of category
growth, its sales in Nielsen 1Q have slowed from +129% in 4Q to +71% in 1Q and
+44% in 2QTD (with L4W +37%). As we highlighted this morning in our bi-weekly
Celsius Temperature Check (here), Celsius's market share (excluding powders)
declined sequentially from 10.7% five weeks ago to 10.0% in the latest week (its
share is higher but the directional trend is similar in other services, which include
Costco and Amazon). CELH % sales on promotion remained elevated, reflecting 100
days of summer promos and new shelf space, and CELH price/mix declined -MSD%
for L4W, likely reflecting mix from the growth of Essentials and multipacks. CELH
TDP growth was +45% y/y and stable sequentially, with velocity down -9% y/y in
the L2W and -6% for L4W.

===========================
Lowering Estimates: We are lowering 2Q and FY24/25 estimates for CELH due to:
(1) further inventory reductions by its primary distributor PepsiCo in Q2, and (2)
weaker than expected energy category growth and CELH market share in scanner
data. At an investor conference this afternoon, CELH quantified the PEP inventory
reduction in 2Q at $20-30M sequentially, following a $20M inventory reduction in
1Q. While some of the reduction was driven by PEP's working capital efficiencies and
CELH starting to ship more to PEP's smaller distribution warehouses vs larger
mixing centers, we believe the bulk of the 1H inventory cut reflects that PEP's
inventories of Celsius exiting 2023 were too high for the recent sales rate. CELH
noted that its 2Q depletions through the PEP system were running up +mid-
teens from 1Q, which along with our assumptions for non-PEP growth (e.g. Amazon,
Costco, international) implies high-teens y/y reported revenue growth in 2Q. As a
result, we are lowering our 2Q revenue estimate from $430M to $388M vs the
current $419M Visible Alpha consensus (which we expect to come down). Our $42M
revenue revision is driven by $30M of PEP inventory cuts, and $12M of underlying
revenue reduction (see below for detail). We are also lowering our FY24/25 revenue
estimates by 5%/6%, and our PT from $75 to $68.
 
#15,897
#15,897
Thunder Good-Oil said:
Morgan Stanley:

Weak Category and CELH Share Trends in Scanner Data: The US energy drink
category has slowed further in 2Q along with most beverage categories, reflecting
low-end consumer weakness and softness in the gas & convenience channel, and
secondarily some weather headwinds. Energy category sales in NielsenIQ tracked
channels have slowed from +8.5% in 4Q, to +4.1% in 1Q, and +1.6% in 2QTD, with
L4W essentially flat, While CELH continues to drive the lion's share of category
growth, its sales in Nielsen 1Q have slowed from +129% in 4Q to +71% in 1Q and
+44% in 2QTD (with L4W +37%). As we highlighted this morning in our bi-weekly
Celsius Temperature Check (here), Celsius's market share (excluding powders)
declined sequentially from 10.7% five weeks ago to 10.0% in the latest week (its
share is higher but the directional trend is similar in other services, which include
Costco and Amazon). CELH % sales on promotion remained elevated, reflecting 100
days of summer promos and new shelf space, and CELH price/mix declined -MSD%
for L4W, likely reflecting mix from the growth of Essentials and multipacks. CELH
TDP growth was +45% y/y and stable sequentially, with velocity down -9% y/y in
the L2W and -6% for L4W.

===========================
Lowering Estimates: We are lowering 2Q and FY24/25 estimates for CELH due to:
(1) further inventory reductions by its primary distributor PepsiCo in Q2, and (2)
weaker than expected energy category growth and CELH market share in scanner
data. At an investor conference this afternoon, CELH quantified the PEP inventory
reduction in 2Q at $20-30M sequentially, following a $20M inventory reduction in
1Q. While some of the reduction was driven by PEP's working capital efficiencies and
CELH starting to ship more to PEP's smaller distribution warehouses vs larger
mixing centers, we believe the bulk of the 1H inventory cut reflects that PEP's
inventories of Celsius exiting 2023 were too high for the recent sales rate. CELH
noted that its 2Q depletions through the PEP system were running up +mid-
teens from 1Q, which along with our assumptions for non-PEP growth (e.g. Amazon,
Costco, international) implies high-teens y/y reported revenue growth in 2Q. As a
result, we are lowering our 2Q revenue estimate from $430M to $388M vs the
current $419M Visible Alpha consensus (which we expect to come down). Our $42M
revenue revision is driven by $30M of PEP inventory cuts, and $12M of underlying
revenue reduction (see below for detail). We are also lowering our FY24/25 revenue
estimates by 5%/6%, and our PT from $75 to $68.
Click to expand...
Are cold energy drinks a seasonal business?

As I recall, back 40 years ago in USA market, people drank more coffee in winter than summer.
 
#15,898
#15,898
Jax_Vol said:
Are cold energy drinks a seasonal business?

As I recall, back 40 years ago in USA market, people drank more coffee in winter than summer.
Click to expand...

It would make sense as people will be sweating out more of what they replace in the hotter months. But personally I tend to drink the same year round.
 
  • Like
Reactions: Jax_Vol
New posts
You must log in or register to reply here.

VN Store



Back
Top