All things STOCKS

[Jax_Vol]

NVIDIA is down about $4 today. Went ahead and purchased a few shares. Wise move?

Yes...100% onboard with that move

 

[Thunder Good-Oil]

NVIDIA is down about $4 today. Went ahead and purchased a few shares. Wise move?

For a long term investment - probably yes. For a short term trade - maybe not. It might be several months before NVDA moves up significantly. It will help if AAPL has a strong cycle of new phones coming. But AI isn’t really rolled out a lot yet so paying a huge premium for a high end, AI enabled phone isn’t something for the average consumer just yet. But it should mean strength for AAPL in 2025, 2026, 2927, etc.

I’m kicking myself a little. Yesterday I considered selling some NVDA call options which would have been near the top. But I didn’t because I sold some of my shares several months ago and they tripled. I haven’t looked but I bet there are some contracts that I could have bought back to close at a 75% discount today.

Sell losers. Let winners run. It’s a hard discipline to adhere to.

 

[Thunder Good-Oil]

The pull back in NVDA shares could be traders getting positioned for the upcoming holiday. A lot of Wall Street will take the whole week off since 7/4 is Thursday. Friday 7/5 will be very quiet.

Next Friday is also the last day of Q2. A lot of money managers want to sell and lock in their gains.

 

[InVOLuntary]

For a long term investment - probably yes. For a short term trade - maybe not. It might be several months before NVDA moves up significantly. It will help if AAPL has a strong cycle of new phones coming. But AI isn’t really rolled out a lot yet so paying a huge premium for a high end, AI enabled phone isn’t something for the average consumer just yet. But it should mean strength for AAPL in 2025, 2026, 2927, etc.

I’m kicking myself a little. Yesterday I considered selling some NVDA call options which would have been near the top. But I didn’t because I sold some of my shares several months ago and they tripled. I haven’t looked but I bet there are some contracts that I could have bought back to close at a 75% discount today.

Sell losers. Let winners run. It’s a hard discipline to adhere to.

It's funds from an inherited IRA. When my dad died a couple of years ago I received about $30,000 which I rolled into another IRA. I didn't take possession until the first of this year. It's my understanding I have to pull it out and pay taxes on it within the next 10 years. It's been sitting there making diddly for the last several months. I was looking for something to put it in hoping in the next few years it might offset the impending taxes. I only spent about a 1/3 of that on the NVDA.

I purchased some NVDA a couple of weeks ago, before the split and I've made a little on that as it's went up a few dollars.

 

[InVOLuntary]

As of right now, I've made $133 since my purchase a couple of hours ago.

 

[Thunder Good-Oil]

It's funds from an inherited IRA. When my dad died a couple of years ago I received about $30,000 which I rolled into another IRA. I didn't take possession until the first of this year. It's my understanding I have to pull it out and pay taxes on it within the next 10 years. It's been sitting there making diddly for the last several months. I was looking for something to put it in hoping in the next few years it might offset the impending taxes. I only spent about a 1/3 of that on the NVDA.

I purchased some NVDA a couple of weeks ago, before the split and I've made a little on that as it's went up a few dollars.

You might be able to convert it into a Roth IRA. That’s not a bad idea if you have funds OUTSIDE of the IRA to pay the taxes. But I’m not a tax expert so don’t do that without checking first.

Age is an important consideration. Converting to a Roth IRA isn’t tax advantaged if it’s going to be donated to a charity.

You don’t ever have required minimum withdrawals with Roth IRAs.

 

[InVOLuntary]

You might be able to convert it into a Roth IRA. That’s not a bad idea if you have funds OUTSIDE of the IRA to pay the taxes. But I’m not a tax expert so don’t do that without checking first.

Age is an important consideration. Converting to a Roth IRA isn’t tax advantaged if it’s going to be donated to a charity.

You don’t ever have required minimum withdrawals with Roth IRAs.

I'm 60. Will retire soon. Don't need the money just yet. I want to upgrade the boat in my AVI soon though.

I'll ask my accountant about that. I figured my income would drop after retirement making my taxes less later.

 

[Thunder Good-Oil]

I'm 60. Will retire soon. Don't need the money just yet. I want to upgrade the boat in my AVI soon though.

I'll ask my accountant about that. I figured my income would drop after retirement making my taxes less later.

That’s (tax brackets) an important variable. Check with the accountant about age rules as well. You can spread out conversions to a Roth over several years. Regular IRAs have required minimum withdrawals by a specific age but with Roths the RMW is zero.

You also have Social Security decisions to make soon. You can begin at age 62, but IIRC each year (month) delayed up until your “full retirement age” of 67 increases that monthly check by 6% per year and 8% per year to delay it from 67 until age 70. At 62 you get 70% of what you get at age 67. Beginning at age 70 gets you 124% of the benefit amount if starting at age 67. BUT working while taking SS and/or having a spouse add more variables to that equation and decision.

 

[Jax_Vol]

As of right now, I've made $133 since my purchase a couple of hours ago.

If you got it for $126/share, just sit back and count the $$$

 

[InVOLuntary]

If you got it for $126/share, just sit back and count the $$$

I think it was $126.10

 

[Jax_Vol]

I think it was $126.10

For long term, you are good to go on that one IMO.

 

[Jax_Vol]

Getting into LLY under $900 is another 30% gainer over next year IMO.

Even if you can only afford to buy 10-20 shares

 

[Thunder Good-Oil]

Getting into LLY under $900 is another 30% gainer over next year IMO.

Even if you can only afford to buy 10-20 shares

I’m a LLY fence sitter. 130x p/e. They pay out 75% of earnings as dividends but the yield isn’t impressive at all.

McDonald’s is kind of the anti LLY and is up late this week. Over the last year MCD has trended down as LLY has been up. The big MCD news is the $5 deal. Labor costs have been a threat so they are a potential beneficiary of the automation aspect of AI. But I actually think of MCD as more of a real estate company with spectacular properties and also great cash flows from the franchise fees.

Rather than picking winners in Pharma I prefer the healthcare ETFs. XLV for a steady, safe grower and CURE for a more speculative position. PFE was popping as a COVID play. But now it’s down by about 20% since Q4 2020.

 

[Orange.]

The Biden admin completely bungled CHIPS and the IRA is an absolute poorly written clusterF that these companies will exploit the hell out of.

I see NEE doing well as well. They are exploiting the hell out of the incentive provisions in IRA...

Who do you think wrote it?

 

[Majors]

NVIDIA is down about $4 today. Went ahead and purchased a few shares. Wise move?

I’m waiting until Monday to see what the morning has to start. I waited patiently after the 10:1 split to see the pullback from $140+ bump and get in then somewhere around $125-128.

 

[walkenvol]

Jumped on board the NVDA train. Late in the game obviously. But I'll ride it till it the train slows down.

Got in over 3 years ago. I view it as a hold on for the foreseeable future like Apple, Amazon, and a couple others and add to my position on the inevitable price dips as it can’t just keep going straight to the moon.

 

[walkenvol]

I think it’s slowing sales growth rather than a decrease in sales.

A year or 2 ago sales were increasing by over 100%. IIRC, now sales are growing around 40-50%.

IMO they need to get their earnings growing to accelerate share price. P/E is around 70x. I think they recently had a big draw down in their inventory which hurts earnings as COGS would increase. But that is a short term earnings issue.

Schwab gives them a D rating. Morningstar a 2-star.

$14.5 billion market cap. Coke is $270 billion.

I’ve held KO forever it seems since Buffet was always so bullish on it, but I’m thinking that money needs to find a new home. It broke $60 in February of 2020 and now it’s now bouncing in the $62-64 range with a 3% yield. I quit consuming their products 10 years back when I recognized the negative health impact it was having on me (Diet Coke). As we age especially, we sure don’t need the extra sugar of the non diet varieties due to the inflammatory effects and extra calories which didn’t bother me when I was younger. I could foresee the day where food/drink companies will have to defend themselves in court for selling unhealthy products to the American public.

What think you guys?

 

[walkenvol]

I just started drinking coke and diet coke again after a 30-40 year break.
Any flavors you prefer of that stuff?

Do yourself a favor and stop drinking them again. Your feet , joints, and kidneys will thank you. Personally, why drink anything regularly except water, coffee, tea, and possibly milk / coconut milk? Why put extra sugar, artificial coloring, and God knows what else into your body? JMO, TIFWIW

 

[Thunder Good-Oil]

I know that stock splits get way overhyped. It’s mostly just simple math (with arguments that SSs make more shares available for employees and small retail investors as well as the availability of options contracts). But with NVDA, and now CMG this upcoming week, these are kind of ground breaking. Especially Chipotle doing a 50:1 this coming week. That might be a record - at least for a widely held equity.

24.5 million shares will be diluted to 1.375 billion shares.

I wouldn’t mind adding CMG but I’m already well exposed to food and restaurants. Still I might add a small number of CMG shares after the dust settles. I’ll be staying on the sidelines while the arbitrageurs do their part.

McDonald’s shouldn’t have ever separated from CMG. But on the other hand the MCD management might not have ever been able to nurture CMG’s growth. 7,500% in 18 years.

 

[walkenvol]

I'm up 40% in this particular portfolio since April 24. Nice little run for me. Only a couple thousands buck overall, so not we're not talking huge money here, but it's nice to see the growth.

Most all large money started off as small money - trust the process and remain persistent.

 

[walkenvol]

Mostly need to not let them steal the technology without repercussion. Dems need to be on board otherwise they could harm tech same as they destroyed steel. The key is going to be whether or not our allies cooperate or will be sell outs.

The world will be a better place if the CCP collapses.

I agree with your assessment of the value of AI technology. Not sure if there’s any way to prevent reverse engineer of technology, but we should demand AI companies manufacture in the US for national security reasons IMO.

 

[Thunder Good-Oil]

Do yourself a favor and stop drinking them again. Your feet , joints, and kidneys will thank you. Personally, why drink anything regularly except water, coffee, tea, and possibly milk / coconut milk? Why put extra sugar, artificial coloring, and God knows what else into your body? JMO, TIFWIW

Too much water isn’t good for you either. It flushes out needed stuff. I try to budget one 20/28 ounce Gator/Powerades a day.

 

[walkenvol]

I know that stock splits get way overhyped. It’s mostly just simple math (with arguments that SSs make more shares available for employees and small retail investors as well as the availability of options contracts). But with NVDA, and now CMG this upcoming week, these are kind of ground breaking. Especially Chipotle doing a 50:1 this coming week. That might be a record - at least for a widely held equity.

24.5 million shares will be diluted to 1.375 billion shares.

I wouldn’t mind adding CMG but I’m already well exposed to food and restaurants. Still I might add a small number of CMG shares after the dust settles. I’ll be staying on the sidelines while the arbitrageurs do their part.

McDonald’s shouldn’t have ever separated from CMG. But on the other hand the MCD management might not have ever been able to nurture CMG’s growth. 7,500% in 18 years.

There’s 2 Chipotle restaurants I pass on my driving routes and I’ve noticed both have surprisingly few cars in the parking lot compared to their nearby competitors. Personally, I think the food there isn’t as good as it was 5-10 years back. Not sure I’d want a long term position there?

 

[Thunder Good-Oil]

I agree with your assessment of the value of AI technology. Not sure if there’s any way to prevent reverse engineer of technology, but we should demand AI companies manufacture in the US for national security reasons IMO.

No doubt China will steal it. What we need is a cooperative effort with our allies to not buy their stuff. And don’t help the economies of our non-allies when they do. NK. Iran. Rogue Latin American and African governments.

 

[Thunder Good-Oil]

There’s 2 Chipotle restaurants I pass on my driving routes and I’ve noticed both have surprisingly few cars in the parking lot compared to their nearby competitors. Personally, I think the food there isn’t as good as it was 5-10 years back. Not sure I’d want a long term position there?

Their issue is probably labor and food costs. I love Chipotle but when their burritos and bowls are at the $15-$20 price point it’s hard to go frequently. They do have a pretty good business model in high foot traffic areas like college campuses. They have a fairly small store footprint so they could expand like Starbucks. A chipotle or 2 on every corner.

I haven’t looked. I’d bet that the earnings multiple is sky high.