All things STOCKS

#15,903
#15,903
I kind of like the government holiday being on a Wednesday. The Monday holidays with markets being closed for 3 days is a long time. I like them being open the day after Thanksgiving as well.

NVDA was down yesterday. So naturally it’s up almost 3% today. On a flat day for the NASDAQ.

It’s going to be the most most valuable company in the world soon. Unless China invades Taiwan - but if that were to happen the equity markets would be the least of our troubles.
 
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#15,907
#15,907
NVDA up 3.5% premarket. I would expect a little pull back once the market opens, but geez man, this thing is a tank.
 
#15,910
#15,910
NVDA is selling everything AI that they can produce (through TSM) for years to come. Supply isn’t about to catch up with demand for a long time. The customers will have to bid against each other. But how does something like that get priced?
 
#15,911
#15,911
Thunder Good-Oil said:
NVDA is selling everything AI that they can produce (through TSM) for years to come. Supply isn’t about to catch up with demand for a long time. The customers will have to bid against each other. But how does something like that get priced?
Click to expand...

I still like TSM more than NVDA the next few years....

I think they are the next one to hit a trilly...
 
#15,912
#15,912
Morningstar:

Bulls Say Phelix Lee, Equity Analyst, 19 Jan 2024
- TSMC should consistently earn higher gross margins than competitors thanks to its economies of scale and premium pricing justified by cutting-edge process technologies.
- TSMC wins when customers compete to offer the most advanced processing systems using the latest process technologies.
- TSMC will benefit from more semiconductor firms embracing the fabless business model and internet giants designing their own data center chips.

Bears Say Phelix Lee, Equity Analyst, 19 Jan 2024
- Although TSMC is the foundry leader, each generation of process technology matures and commoditizes quickly, forcing the company to deal with pricing pressure.
- TSMC's new approach to diversify production geographically may add cost pressures with little added resilience to stability.
- Samsung and Intel are committed to heavy capital spending under the support of the U.S. government. SMIC and other state-supported Chinese foundries also lurk as potential threats.
 
#15,913
#15,913
Thunder Good-Oil said:
Morningstar:

Bulls Say Phelix Lee, Equity Analyst, 19 Jan 2024
- TSMC should consistently earn higher gross margins than competitors thanks to its economies of scale and premium pricing justified by cutting-edge process technologies.
- TSMC wins when customers compete to offer the most advanced processing systems using the latest process technologies.
- TSMC will benefit from more semiconductor firms embracing the fabless business model and internet giants designing their own data center chips.

Bears Say Phelix Lee, Equity Analyst, 19 Jan 2024
- Although TSMC is the foundry leader, each generation of process technology matures and commoditizes quickly, forcing the company to deal with pricing pressure.
- TSMC's new approach to diversify production geographically may add cost pressures with little added resilience to stability.
- Samsung and Intel are committed to heavy capital spending under the support of the U.S. government. SMIC and other state-supported Chinese foundries also lurk as potential threats.
Click to expand...

Intel too far behind to be a near term threat. The CHIPS Act delay with Biden admin only furthering the wide technology gap. Far more worried about CCP than anything from Intel....
 
#15,914
#15,914
AAPL must have a large upgrade cycle about to commence. TSM will benefit from that. They’ll also be producing the majority of the coming wave of AI chips.

Even though the Inflation Reduction Act will be pumping billions into domestic manufacturing, TSM will be building a lot of those US based production facilities. So they can be a beneficiary rather than a victim of the IRA stimulus.

TSM shares might be priced (I haven’t checked it out) with a lot of potential risk to overcome. China being the primary issue. But China manufactures the low end and TSM is focused on the high end.

ASML is well positioned. IRA driving new facilities being built means a lot of revenue for them. AI is big for them as well.

The need for more energy efficient chips should drive production even without AI demand (which seems to be at least another 10 years before normalizing).

Demand for electricity should double with EVs, AI, crypto, and just a growing (hopefully) economy. Utility companies ought to be in favor. Especially if rate cuts materialize. NextEra might be a good name there. I have no idea why Dominion has been such a dog for 5 or 10 years now. They used to be a good name (D). Uranium ought to rebound after the Lefties pretty much killed off the industry 30-40 years ago. There’s little threat of global warming issues with nukes.
 
#15,915
#15,915
The Biden admin completely bungled CHIPS and the IRA is an absolute poorly written clusterF that these companies will exploit the hell out of.

I see NEE doing well as well. They are exploiting the hell out of the incentive provisions in IRA...
 
#15,916
#15,916
BigOrangeMojo said:
Intel too far behind to be a near term threat. The CHIPS Act delay with Biden admin only furthering the wide technology gap. Far more worried about CCP than anything from Intel....
Click to expand...

Mostly need to not let them steal the technology without repercussion. Dems need to be on board otherwise they could harm tech same as they destroyed steel. The key is going to be whether or not our allies cooperate or will be sell outs.

The world will be a better place if the CCP collapses.
 
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#15,917
#15,917
Thunder Good-Oil said:
Mostly need to not let them steal the technology without repercussion. Dems need to be on board otherwise they could harm tech same as they destroyed steel. The key is going to be whether or not our allies cooperate or will be sell outs.

The world will be a better place if the CCP collapses.
Click to expand...

My concern is Biden wins and China ramps pressure on Taiwan. Really, that's my major concern with TSM....
 
#15,918
#15,918
We should really see the trillions in stimulus from Trump and Biden’s handlers driving our economy ahead. But how much of that is already priced into the equity markets? And how much rate cutting can the economy handle without things heating up too much?
 
#15,919
#15,919
BigOrangeMojo said:
My concern is Biden wins and China ramps pressure on Taiwan. Really, that's my major concern with TSM....
Click to expand...

If the CCP leans hard on Taiwan, the economy will be the least of our problems. The CCP invading and annexing Taiwan is akin to stealing AI and that won't go over well at all. I’d be very concerned about WW3 with nuclear devices being in play.
 
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