All things STOCKS

#16,059
#16,059
Go aeiou said:
I have a business partner who was fined $1,400,000 for insider trading . That was twice the amount of profit he made on the trade.
His BIL was CEO of a public company that was going to get bought.
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I don't think reading the internet and sharing what you read constitutes insider trading.
 
#16,060
#16,060
kiddiedoc said:
I don't think reading the internet and sharing what you read constitutes insider trading.
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Nope
Two entirely different situations.
Your info was public information or at worst just rumors.
My partner unfortunately called his BIL weekly to ask how the business was doing. He swears he would ask, and his BIL would always say the same thing which was "good".
BIL was never charged. The size of the trades is what got my partner in trouble. $700,000 was much more than his typical trade.
Greedy.
 
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#16,061
#16,061
Granola said:
If Trump wins the election, do yall foresee Dow 50,000? I can see it
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Maybe. If Trump initiates protectionist tariffs, it will have a negative impact on the economy and the stock market. Companies importing Chinese parts will have to increase prices, causing higher inflation than would otherwise ensue. The question is, will less regulation offset that. I'm a free market capitalist and believe the government can do nothing but hurt economic progress in the long run.
 
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#16,062
#16,062
Granola said:
If Trump wins the election, do yall foresee Dow 50,000? I can see it
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Unless there’s a global economic collapse the DJIA going up another 25% in the next 4 years is almost guaranteed. No matter who wins the election or controls congressional seats. A good question is whether or not it will happen within 2 years.

The SP500 could struggle to get 25% within 2 years since the recent returns have been carried by the Mag 7. It’s market cap weighted and the AI run up could be somewhat ahead of where it should be based on expected earnings. The Mag 7 is in priced for perfection territory.

The Invesco equal weight ETF RSP looks like a good idea right now. The other 493 companies have lagged and will do well in a solid economy.

The tax cuts will probably expire in 2026 if the Dems win POTUS and Congress. Trump will need support from the House and Senate to extend them. It wouldn’t be a bad thing for the cuts to expire IF the additional government revenues were used to pay down the debt. More likely though they’d be used to expand government programs like paying off the loans of students that made bad decisions majoring in stupid things.

If Trump wins, I think that he should be careful with the tariffs. Crush China with tariffs is a great approach in my opinion. It might be a short term speed bump but in the long term we need to push back hard on the CCP. However they don’t need to be across the board tariffs. Trade with Mexico helps minimize our labor shortage. Canada has natural resources. Threatening Mexico with them is fine to incentivize them to help fix the border crisis and get the drug cartels under control. But we are better off nurturing that trade.
 
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#16,063
#16,063
If Trump wins I sure hope that Robert Lighthizer is back on his staff. He was a trade rock star. But he will be 77 in October - he might not be interested in going another 4 years.
 
#16,071
#16,071
I decided to diversify my portfolio into a new sector and bought some Rolls-Royce Holdings PLC ADR (RYCEY).

I’m thinking about Royal Caribbean (RCL) next.

Both seem like good options after an interest rate drop.
 
#16,072
#16,072
Freedom said:
I decided to diversify my portfolio into a new sector and bought some Rolls-Royce Holdings PLC ADR (RYCEY).

I’m thinking about Royal Caribbean (RCL) next.

Both seem like good options after an interest rate drop.
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I know very little about the UK political apparatus. Labour does have a significant majority though. That might mean higher taxes for businesses - but I’m just spitballing.

The UK is already meeting the agreed upon 2% of GDP military spending threshold that Trump was demanding of the NATO partners, so RR might not see a bump from Trump as POTUS. On the other hand, as long as Russia remains ornery the European defense businesses ought to do well.

I like defense but prefer the domestic names. LMT. RTX. GE. G-D. Northrop. Even BA if wanting to take on more risk. PLTR for a smaller, more speculative angle. PLTR has significant AI exposure but it has had a nice run of late.

Lots of retirees might could mean that the travel industry does well for a long while.
 
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#16,074
#16,074
I got out of NVDA last week for a nice gain. Now it's below where I initially got in at. Might have to jump back in tomorrow depending on how the market is looking
 
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