All things STOCKS

#16,101
#16,101
walkenvol said:
I picked Ford up a couple years back when it dropped into the $5’s and was considering parting ways - a day late it appears, just like I bought too early yesterday. Timing the market is tough.
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You can’t really time the market (unless you’re day trading). The usual sell outcomes are selling too early and missing out on big upward moves or selling too late and missing the tops. You never know when big drops will bounce back or shares will go into protracted declines. It gets frustrating and requires a lot of discipline to hold on instead of going into a panic sell mode. My sister does the latter.

Averaging in is often discussed - buying on a regular schedule. Maybe the same needs to be promoted for selling. Especially with zero transaction fees being the norm. Sell positions in phases over many months.

I didn’t realize that Chipotle is off 30%. It’s worth taking a look at IMO.

I don’t know if it was the entire market or just my stocks, but I had a big run up early today and then at least 2/3rds of the gain had vanished by the close. It might have actually been an 80% decline off of the earlier move up. The days are starting to run together.
 
#16,102
#16,102
Ford seems like a pretty nice stock to swing trade over the last two years. Buy below $10, hold 3-6 months and sell above $13. Profit 30% each time.
 
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#16,103
#16,103
I bought it back years ago when it was close to the bottom. A short time after that, I took one of our kids to a Cup race at Bristol and we went by the Ford tent. They gave him a Ford matchbox car and I mentioned that it might’ve cost more than a share of their stock. The guy there paused, thought about it, and said I was probably right. We still have the matchbox car as well as the stock.

I remember some Ford dealers had ads that if you took a test drive they would give you something like 25 shares.
 
#16,104
#16,104
Carp said:
Ford seems like a pretty nice stock to swing trade over the last two years. Buy below $10, hold 3-6 months and sell above $13. Profit 30% each time.
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It looks like it mostly turns up just before falling under $10. There was a sub-$10 double bottom last fall. However I only drilled down into a chart. I haven’t looked at a daily list of share prices.

I might sell a few cash reserved Puts on F. It only requires a little over $1,000 uninvested cash to be in the account for each options contract.

I’ve been inactive with options of late but did sell FCX calls a couple weeks ago. They weren’t called and I closed the shorted calls about a week ago. Now I’m still holding the underlying shares and waiting for them to return to about $52. Shares were all the way down to about $44 yesterday. I would have been better off selling the stock when it was just under $52 2 or 3 weeks ago. But I don’t mind holding the shares and waiting to sell calls again after the next move upward.
 
#16,106
#16,106
BigOrangeMojo said:
Ford is investing a ton in EV and right now, not sure about that bet....
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EVs are good. However replacing the entire fleet of ICE vehicles isn’t practical. I’d like to own an EV for short trips around town. But something that’s well below $50k.

It will take a long time to move away from an economic, manufacturing, and repair model of internal combustion power and of the components (fuel delivery systems / startling systems / retail gasoline / entrenched labor).

I think that if battery prices can come down and their replacement doesn’t approach the cost of a new EVs then the electrical powered market will take off. I think that Toyota is best positioned, but Ford can be a player.
 
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#16,107
#16,107
Thunder Good-Oil said:
EVs are good. However replacing the entire fleet of ICE vehicles isn’t practical. I’d like to own an EV for short trips around town. But something that’s well below $50k.

It will take a long time to move away from an economic, manufacturing, and repair model of internal combustion power and of the components (fuel delivery systems / startling systems / retail gasoline / entrenched labor).

I think that if battery prices can come down and their replacement doesn’t approach the cost of a new EVs then the electrical powered market will take off. I think that Toyota is best positioned, but Ford can be a player.
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Im not saying they are good or bad but its a political issue now for many....

The question is did they get out over their skis
 
#16,108
#16,108
BigOrangeMojo said:
Im not saying they are good or bad but its a political issue now for many....

The question is did they get out over their skis
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Ford might be early relative to an eventual massive transition. But they won’t be left behind and can sell a lot of cars in California while they wait. But again, I think that Toyota will ultimately do it best. Tesla might do better if they focused on batteries and less on their brand of car. Although they do have a massive lead in units being produced. The legacy brands have the repair facilities. Tesla shares are still richly valued.

I’m wondering which company will be left standing with charging stations. ChargePoint has a huge footprint right now, but they are also getting near going concern territory (if that those warnings haven’t already been expressed). I think that big tech (especially Tesla) or big oil will eventually own the charging station space. Commercial property, hotel, office space, and multi-unit housing REITs might have a big slice of the pie once it’s baked. Big box retailers as well (Walmart/CostCo).
 
#16,109
#16,109
I think that a great business opportunity will be created for guys that can turn a wrench. Repairing the millions of charging stations will be a high demand industry.
 
#16,110
#16,110
Sold the 8/2 $49.50 CMG put today, so I’ll probably be assigned Chipotle shares next week.

$49.53/$49.54 bid/ask close.

50x p/e
$70B mkt cap
$1.02 earnings, no dividend
$35-$70 52 week low/high. The $70 high was reached around the time of the stock split.
 
#16,113
#16,113
Big week. FOMC on Wednesday - markets will be swinging wildly based on hints they drop on a September rate cut. It’s widely expected so if they indicate otherwise stock prices will take a tumble.

Also AMZN and AAPL report earnings on Thursday. MSFT and AMD as well in a day or two.

Buckle up.
 
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#16,114
#16,114
Ford getting very close to buy area. I've got an open buy order in for the next few weeks at a shade over $10. Hopefully it fills.

NVDA is close to my buy price too. Flirting with 110.
 
#16,118
#16,118
Thunder Good-Oil said:
Yes. The 25% haircut looks like a bit much. But the downward momentum could be a tough nut to crack. I’m tempted to buy more, but it’s still a large percentage of my holdings.
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I feel like the popularity of the stock is going to keep it soaring awhile. It will more than likely trade sideways until earnings. Depending on where it settles before earnings, I might bail out and let it find a new support level.
 
#16,120
#16,120
Huge day tomorrow.

FOMC announcement is at 2pm. Powell speaks at 2:30.

A September rate cut is priced in at 100% per the CME.

It’s even slightly possible that rate cuts begin tomorrow. That would be shocking.

Buckle up.
 
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#16,122
#16,122
Great opening bell. I won’t be surprised if most of the markets morning gains are gone by shortly after the 2pm announcement or Powell’s comments at 2:30.
 
#16,123
#16,123
90 minutes until the July decision is announced. Highly probable that it will be no cut.

In 2 hours Powell will speak. Since the September cut is priced in, he can really only say something that harms markets (no September cut). I guess the amount of the cut that he could hint at could be a positive. Or suggesting that multiple cuts are coming.
 
#16,124
#16,124
NVDA is so fun to play with it's popularity and overall outstanding outlook. Already up over 7% from my buy in at $107.40 yesterday.
 
#16,125
#16,125
Trying to sell the 8/9/2024 $62 UBER put. I might have to lower my bid a bit or raise the strike. The options have large premiums right now.

UBER: $64.75
The option is $1.70/$1.76

I bought back the CMG puts and closed out the position. No Chipotle shares assigned.
 
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