All things STOCKS

#16,202
#16,202
walkenvol said:
Crypto investing reminds me of sports betting. Crypto isn’t a business that produces a service or product. Is there another invest on the on the US stock market that doesn’t produce a service or product?
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Agree on the business/product aspect, I’m looking for small exposure to get established and see where it goes.
 
#16,203
#16,203
walkenvol said:
Crypto investing reminds me of sports betting. Crypto isn’t a business that produces a service or product. Is there another invest on the on the US stock market that doesn’t produce a service or product?
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I’ve certainly been a critic. Precious metals, art and collectibles, raw land, and foreign currencies are the closest things that I can think of as comparisons. But metals are raw materials to produce stuff, art and collectibles can be fun to own, raw land can be developed, and most currencies will pay interest. But now that politicians (Trump especially) are talking about participating and the SEC is approving some products it might be time to move a percent or two into crypto. I still don’t like the thousands of currencies that appear out of thin air. Some don’t even have a limit on how many coins will exist. I’d be sticking with Bitcoin and maybe Ethereum.
 
#16,204
#16,204
Majors said:
Agree on the business/product aspect, I’m looking for small exposure to get established and see where it goes.
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The world continues to get crazier. That’s a selling point for me. And hedging the $35 trillion debt.

The US government might be throwing in the towel as far as being in control of crypto currencies. I understand how they are able to tax dividends and gains on stock trades. But they’ll have a hard time doing the same with crypto. Let’s say that you buy $10k worth of Bitcoin, sit on it for 5 years, and it appreciates to a value of $100k. Then you spend it somewhere that accepts Bitcoin as payment. How can the Treasury steal a piece of it? A national sales tax on Bitcoin transactions? Then what happens if you spend it overseas? Are they going to levy an import tariff on US citizens?

It will be disruptive and could result in even fewer tax payers carrying the fiscal load of the federal government. Chaos is coming.
 
#16,205
#16,205
Thunder Good-Oil said:
The world continues to get crazier. That’s a selling point for me. And hedging the $35 trillion debt.

The US government might be throwing in the towel as far as being in control of crypto currencies. I understand how they are able to tax dividends and gains on stock trades. But they’ll have a hard time doing the same with crypto. Let’s say that you buy $10k worth of Bitcoin, sit on it for 5 years, and it appreciates to a value of $100k. Then you spend it somewhere that accepts Bitcoin as payment. How can the Treasury steal a piece of it? A national sales tax on Bitcoin transactions? Then what happens if you spend it overseas? Are they going to levy an import tariff on US citizens?

It will be disruptive and could result in even fewer tax payers carrying the fiscal load of the federal government. Chaos is coming.
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And then Solana burst for 12% today.
 
#16,206
#16,206
A handful of stocks that I own and can’t decide if I should lighten up on. I’m probably not buying more:

ISRG
AKAM
RKT
GOOGL
AX
PLTR
CME
AMAT
 
#16,208
#16,208
Thunder Good-Oil said:
A handful of stocks that I own and can’t decide if I should lighten up on. I’m probably not buying more:

ISRG
AKAM
RKT
GOOGL
AX
PLTR
CME
AMAT
Click to expand...

I'm mixed on Rocket. I do think dropping interest rates will give them a boost, but that will be off-set if we are entering a recession. Overall a good company to own in the long haul, but it may trade more horizontally for the next couple of years.

GOOGL is not never great to own.

I think Palantir is positioned well for a lot of growth over t he next few years. I have a few shares and will probably increase my position over the next few months.

AI is the future, so even though semi-conductor companies like NVDA, AMAT, Broadcom, etc have seen a huge boon the last couple of years, I don't envision it slowing down anytime soon. I'm even considering starting a position in Intel after this sell off. I mean it can't much worse for them right? (famous last words of a fool).
 
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#16,209
#16,209
Carp said:
I'm mixed on Rocket. I do think dropping interest rates will give them a boost, but that will be off-set if we are entering a recession. Overall a good company to own in the long haul, but it may trade more horizontally for the next couple of years.

GOOGL is not never great to own.

I think Palantir is positioned well for a lot of growth over t he next few years. I have a few shares and will probably increase my position over the next few months.

AI is the future, so even though semi-conductor companies like NVDA, AMAT, Broadcom, etc have seen a huge boon the last couple of years, I don't envision it slowing down anytime soon. I'm even considering starting a position in Intel after this sell off. I mean it can't much worse for them right? (famous last words of a fool).
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I’m a little worried that AI won’t benefit GOOGL and might even hurt it. But I do think that they will do well during the next positive economic cycle. They’re an advertising business first and they do have YouTube as a very capable content provider. I plan to sign up for the $75 +/- monthly service before football season begins. I would think that those revenues are immaterial relative to their ad sales but it’s probably growing quickly.

RKT just needs to get on a solid footing. I think that they might now be the largest mortgage company. They are coming back from a huge share price crash over the last few years. The stock still has room to grow if using their previous highs as the base.

AMAT seems to never grow steadily. Maybe they have too much competition and no advantage like they probably had when Cisco and Intel were dominating tech hardware.

PLTR is riskier being a smaller company. The smaller techs always concern me after Microsoft took down Novell in networking. But NOVL was more to blame for their own demise. They shouldn’t have gotten into the spreadsheet and word processing software business. PLTR is a stealthier AI player than most. They “should” do well but, again being small, a company like LMT could smash their business. Hopefully they’re good enough at what they do that they’d be a takeover candidate rather than having their revenue being targeted. I also don’t see a defense company like LMT stepping into the commercial side that PLTR is growing (but perhaps GOOGL would).

I look at Akaml much like other techs that aren’t so entrenched, diversified, or have the same scale as the big guys. Good business, but tech is constantly transforming the model.

ISRG is an interesting case. They must have an overwhelming market share and have the recurring revenue stream. Plus, kind of like the old IBM mainframe business, it isn’t easy for customers to switch to a different supplier.

AX seems really risky to me, but the analysts don’t appear to be too worried about their business. They take on high risk, large loan scenarios. They bailed out at least one of Trump’s over-leveraged ventures.

CME just hasn’t been a good stock since I bought it a couple of years ago. I haven’t drilled down into it to try to figure out why they’ve been drifting sideways. Maybe the share price just got too rich to properly reflect the business.
 
#16,211
#16,211
mr.checkerboards said:
So,.Monday was awful but it looks like everything has recovered decently well. I still have one that's taken a decent hit.
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It was Thursday, Friday, AND Monday that went south. A good day today and we’re about back to the Friday close. The Wednesday and Friday before 8/1 and 8/2 were also very good days, so we’re getting close to little change since about the 3rd week in July.
 
#16,212
#16,212
Maybe we’re getting back to an orderly rotation away from the Mag 7 and into stocks that didn’t participate much as those huge techs ran away from the rest of the names.
 
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#16,213
#16,213
Thunder Good-Oil said:
It was Thursday, Friday, AND Monday that went south. A good day today and we’re about back to the Friday close. The Wednesday and Friday before 8/1 and 8/2 were also very good days, so we’re getting close to little change since about the 3rd week in July.
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Intresting. I used to check daily, but I quit. I need to get back into the habit of checking on a daily basis.
 
#16,214
#16,214
mr.checkerboards said:
Intresting. I used to check daily, but I quit. I need to get back into the habit of checking on a daily basis.
Click to expand...

It might have been a last blast of volatility before the elections. Not to say that there won’t be volatility, but I think that it will calm down a lot other than the usual major economic events hitting the news (there are some important employment and inflationary measures coming out next week). Political events are always possibilities as well. I think that a big one could be Harris replacing Biden before November 5th. But that’s now less than 3 months out. After 3.5 years I think that the Dems can hide him for another 85 days or so.

There will be some hand wringing as the September Fed meeting plays out. A 0.25% or a 0.5% unwinding? Also how they will be foreshadowing anticipated rate cuts for the next 12-18 months.
 
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#16,215
#16,215
Lumen discusses their intent to participate in the AI revolution and more than doubled in about 2 days. Up 3x or 4x in a month.

I’d given them up for dead. I only have a few shares because it splintered out of Sprint after they spun out Embarq.
 
#16,216
#16,216
I'm still really surprised at how high the VIX spiked on Monday. It was at 65 before the cash open, implying +/- 4% daily moves over the next 30 days. That seems insane given the circumstances - the only higher readings occurred at the depth of the financial crisis (October 08) and the beginning of COVID (March 2020).

In my mind, the fears this time basically amount to a growth scare; a spike in the 30s, sure, but 65 is crazy for that. There really was a lot of fear out there Monday.
 
#16,218
#16,218
Thunder Good-Oil said:
It’s a yo-yo week. Big moves down. Big moves up. Great volatility for traders.
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On Monday at 10 am, I certainly didn't think I would be Green on the week going into Friday. I still think we are going to see some rough times ahead. Certainly if Iran goes to war with Israel.
 
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#16,221
#16,221
I’ve almost convinced myself to use spot ETPs ETH and GBTC, IBIT, or FBTC to park small amounts of uninvested cash from a couple of IRAs. No trading results to keep up with since I’ll use IRAs (no tax loss harvesting either however). Using the ETF/ETPs I won’t have to keep up with the currencies. Those 4 are some of the bigger funds and iShares, GrayScale, and Fidelity are the promoters. Since they are spot pricing I can get stuck as a bag holder if Bitcoin or Ethereum tank outside of market hours.

If I make a bigger dive into digital asset exposure I’ll probably stick with those or MSTR (expensive) or the picks and shovels.
 
#16,222
#16,222
AKAM is up 10%. I’d like to take profits, but I also don’t want to pay the tax on my gains. The perfect scenario for me would be for a MSFT or some other less volatile big tech to do a tax free, all stock takeover. That’s not going to happen though.
 
#16,225
#16,225
Granola said:
What is the best dividend stock in your portfolio? Looking for suggestions. Mine is MO
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Currently my only dividend stocks are Ford and BOH, though I am about to drop BOH.

I am also a fan of MA, V, and DFS. I might roll some profits into those.
 
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