All things STOCKS

BH is a diversified portfolio. Himalayan seems redundant honestly as it owns BH, BAC, and AAPL. Just an indirect way to get Google, I guess.

They are obviously both great investors. Retirement investors should be just the market and not concentrate, imo. I’m very Bogle-headed when it comes to retirement investing.

BH is probably overly concentrated in insurance and oil.

Himalayan is a Munger holding. I don’t know if BH has invested in that fund at all.

Munger’s philosophy is even less diversification than Buffett.

Munger was the investment manager for the Daily Journal. Their portfolio was just a couple of stocks. 89% in Wells Fargo and Bank of America. 8% Ali Baba and 3% US Bancorp.
 
Might could be raising cash to go in hard on something else. His theme over the last several years has been oil. He bought a big piece of Occidental Petroleum several years ago and it has been a stagnant stock. Perhaps he’ll try to buy the whole thing with all of that cash while the shares have lagged.

Buffett likes dividends and Apple’s yield is less than 0.5%.

Apple was also almost 50% of Berkshire’s publicly held stock holdings. Selling half is a lot but it is still B-H’s largest public investment by a wide margin. BAC is a distant #2.
That's what got my attention.

Buffett grew a big stake in Apple and Apple seems to be doing fine, though you're probably right that he'd like to see a bigger dividend, and Berkshire didn't seem to need cash unless, as you say, he sees an opportunity to do better elsewhere.

I would find swapping the long-term value of the Apple stake for control of Occidental a bit of a head scratcher. Maybe it's undervalued and Buffett's record speaks for itself, but I'm a big fan of buy well and hold forever. Apple certainly wasn't a dog for Berkshire.

Thanks for the response. I enjoy reading here and watching you guys do well, even if I'm a "set it and forget it" investor.
 
I didn’t realize that Berkshire has already increased its OXY stake to 30%. That cost about $10 billion. They have approval to increase their stake to 50%. That takes another $10 billion. The cash from selling AAPL was about $80 billion. Plus BH was already sitting on several hundred billion more in cash. OXY is a very complementary asset to Pilot Oil. Maybe BH is about to invest heavily in energy.

With the Fed about to commence lowering interest rates by about half over the next year or so it wouldn’t be unusual to see BH deploy their massive cash reserves into something big.
 
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the street dot com​



Most recent market Circuit Breakers:

October 19, 1987​

Though there was no halt on “Black Monday,” it is a day worth noting as it caused a 22% fallout in the market. This event brought more attention to the need for modern preventive measures that are aimed at avoiding massive sell-offs in a single day. The guidelines for market halts will be discussed later.

Oct. 17, 1997​

So called “circuit breakers” caused the shutting down of the NYSE floor as well as the Nasdaq. These protections were implemented as a result of the 1987 crash. At the time, the setup was a 30-minute shutdown if the Dow decreased by 350 points. A second trigger with an additional 200-point loss would close the market for the day.

9/11 Attacks​

The tragic events of September 11 caused the NYSE to not open that Tuesday morning. The Nasdaq also remained closed. The markets remained closed until September 17, as fears were prevalent that the quake of panic over the attacks would lead to massive sell-offs. When the NYSE did finally open, the market would lose 7.1%.

Dec. 1, 2008​

This was the last time we saw the NYSE halted for big sell-offs. It is hard to forget the turmoil of the 2008 housing crisis that put the country into recession. Car companies were bailed out. Financial institutions were liquidated. Massive amounts of capital disappeared in days from the markets.

July 8, 2015​

The NYSE was halted for a technical glitch that caused the exchange to be down for a few hours.

March 9, 2020 - What Caused It?​

Monday morning’s halt and eventual reopening led to an all-day event of chaos. The fallout that led to the halt has been a slow burn over the past few weeks. It began with coronavirus fears, and what the spread of the virus could mean for the global economy. That has escalated into a much broader situation. A drastic 20+% pullback in oil prices, combined with declining interest rates on treasuries have compounded the issue over coronavirus concerns.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average finished 7.79% lower Monday. That’s a 2,014-point decline. The S&P 500 decreased a comparable 7.60%, finishing 225.81 points lower. Within a broader market sell-off, banks have been smacked over fears by investors that net interest margins could really get squeezed, thanks to what’s happening on the bond front. Transportation stocks and shipping stocks are suffering thanks to the virus concerns. Energy stocks are under serious heat due to the fallout in oil prices.

Where things go from here is a question that will be on everyone’s mind for the next few days. The coronavirus hasn’t gone away, and there’s real potential for continued problems. Low rates are likely to continue putting pressure on bank stocks, and transportation stocks seem a prime target to continue to suffer from travel fears over the coronavirus. Unless oil rebounds, energy stocks seem to have a great many headaches in their future.

Put frankly, we’re in uncharted waters.

March 12, 2020​

Just three days after a market halt earlier in the week, trading was halted yet again.
Tensions from growing coronavirus concerns and sudden news about the spread - the WHO announcing a pandemic, the NBA suspending its season, President Trump's speech and travel ban from Europe - panicked investors, and not long after the opening bell the New York Stock Exchange halted trading on the S&P 500 for 15 minutes after stocks fell 7%. The Dow and Nasdaq Composite were halted as well. Wall Streetfutures, meanwhile, hit "limit down" levels.

What are the Modern Qualifications for a Market Halt?​

The NYSE operates on a set of qualifications that must be met in order for a trading halt to occur. A level 1 trigger requires a 7% decline of the S&P 500. In the event that this requirement is met, the New York Stock Exchange will be halted for 15 minutes. This is what we saw Monday, when trading lasted for just four minutes in the morning before reaching that 7% loss.

After trading is resumed, the S&P 500 has to increase its decline to 13% in order to trigger a second halt. This halt once again lasts for 15 minutes.

Once trading is resumed for the second time, a level 3 trigger requires the market to reach a 20% decline. Once that happens, trading is halted for the third and final time. It does not continue for the rest of the day.

Dave Butler
BY
DAVE BUTLER
 
$LMT with a interesting and uncomfortable movement overnight. Do they know something globally?

Currently LMT is just slightly up.

Reasonable 20x p/e.

2.3% yield. Better than 2x coverage ($27.5 eps/$12.5 annual dividend). With rate cuts getting teed up it’s a solid return.

Biggest player in a critical industry.

RBC just increased the target share price to $600 (currently $555).

As always, military spending is the key metric. There’s too much global instability right now for either party to sponsor massive cuts - even with the multi-trillion dollar deficits.
 
Does this mark the official date of the next recession? That may be a tad sensationalist, but the jobs reports have not been good dating back to the end of 2022. We are actually in a FT job deficit under under the Biden/Harris administration. FT jobs are down drastically and PT jobs are inversely up. Over the last 50+ years, that has been a staple of all US recessions (save the COVID recession, but that was extenuating circumstances).

 
What’s on everybody’s shopping list?

I’ve been wanting to own ASML for about 2 years but it’s been going straight up. It has a lot of China risk, so I think I’ll hold off a bit.

Bitcoin and/or CC and blockchain, etc. Maybe energy/utilities is a better ancillary play. Utilities benefit from interest rate cuts, which should be by almost half in the next 12-18 months. Trump won’t get in the way of big energy. Harris has to pretend like she doesn’t have a hostile oil agenda until after the election.

Berkshire-Hathaway. What are Warren’s disciples going to do with those hundreds of billions in cash?

Healthcare. The boomers are going to keep on aging and needing meds and procedures. CURE and XLV.

Defense. LMT. RTX. What’s a missile cost these days? A half million dollars per launch? A million?
 
I’m still unsure of what exactly is causing the huge sell off? Lots of speculation, but no clear answer. IIRC, the markets are usually pretty good leading up to a presidential election. There’s no obvious housing bubble or dot.com bubble? May be a time to stay in cash until everything shakes out? Investing isn’t for the weak of heart! Going to be difficult to not follow the carnage all day but I’m going to try to wait
 
I’m still unsure of what exactly is causing the huge sell off? Lots of speculation, but no clear answer. IIRC, the markets are usually pretty good leading up to a presidential election. There’s no obvious housing bubble or dot.com bubble? May be a time to stay in cash until everything shakes out? Investing isn’t for the weak of heart! Going to be difficult to not follow the carnage all day but I’m going to try to wait
1) Markets had ramped like crazy so far this year (S&P was up 20% YTD in mid-July) and, IMO, it was overdone
2) Proximate cause of this selloff is folks wanting to see more urgency in the Fed's statement last week about cutting rates, but there wasn't any
3) Yen carry is unwinding (more hawkish BOJ)

It isn't surprising to see a big selloff, but honestly I am surprised to see the VIX at 60 already after just a 10% decline. There is a real sense of panic out there right now.
 
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I’m still unsure of what exactly is causing the huge sell off? Lots of speculation, but no clear answer. IIRC, the markets are usually pretty good leading up to a presidential election. There’s no obvious housing bubble or dot.com bubble? May be a time to stay in cash until everything shakes out? Investing isn’t for the weak of heart! Going to be difficult to not follow the carnage all day but I’m going to try to wait

I think that it is a lot of “little” things that added together becomes a big thing. There aren’t many positives right now. The Buffett news of selling AAPL and BoA hitting don’t help.
 
What’s on everybody’s shopping list?

I’ve been wanting to own ASML for about 2 years but it’s been going straight up. It has a lot of China risk, so I think I’ll hold off a bit.

Bitcoin and/or CC and blockchain, etc. Maybe energy/utilities is a better ancillary play. Utilities benefit from interest rate cuts, which should be by almost half in the next 12-18 months. Trump won’t get in the way of big energy. Harris has to pretend like she doesn’t have a hostile oil agenda until after the election.

Berkshire-Hathaway. What are Warren’s disciples going to do with those hundreds of billions in cash?

Healthcare. The boomers are going to keep on aging and needing meds and procedures. CURE and XLV.

Defense. LMT. RTX. What’s a missile cost these days? A half million dollars per launch? A million?
ETH
LLY & PFE
SMCI
OXY
 
What’s on everybody’s shopping list?

I’ve been wanting to own ASML for about 2 years but it’s been going straight up. It has a lot of China risk, so I think I’ll hold off a bit.

Bitcoin and/or CC and blockchain, etc. Maybe energy/utilities is a better ancillary play. Utilities benefit from interest rate cuts, which should be by almost half in the next 12-18 months. Trump won’t get in the way of big energy. Harris has to pretend like she doesn’t have a hostile oil agenda until after the election.

Berkshire-Hathaway. What are Warren’s disciples going to do with those hundreds of billions in cash?

Healthcare. The boomers are going to keep on aging and needing meds and procedures. CURE and XLV.

Defense. LMT. RTX. What’s a missile cost these days? A half million dollars per launch? A million?
Nothing for me unfortunately. Not enough cash available to really make a splash anywhere.

I might start rolling some into LMT in the next few weeks depending on what happens internationally.
 

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