All things STOCKS

#12,076
#12,076
Velo Vol said:
I don't know. But I'm starting to think that the Fed may pivot (not necessarily an interest rate cut, but QE/QT), not because of the US economy, but because of a meltdown in the bond/foreign exchange markets. Isn't that what first prompted the Fed when COVID hit? The bond market blew up?

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"It's our currency, but it is your problem."

Very well could be. When you control the world's reserve currency, you have to think about the blowback from the problems you can create for other countries.
 
#12,079
#12,079
Indexes down another 1% today and off about 20% for the year. How are you guys feeling about 1 month from now, 6 months from now and 12 months from now? I really think by overextending the quant easing the fed artificially fueled the markets over the past 18+ months and there’s a price to be paid so I’m thinking a more extended bear. Admittedly, I make this guess with a low degree of confidence.

1 month - down another 2%
6 months - down another 12%
1year - gain back 10%, still down 24% from the start of the year
 
#12,085
#12,085
Wonder how low Intel is likely to go.

I find this mildly interesting because I lived through it. You would not have predicted, in 1999, that intel shares would never attain that share price ever again.

I'm not saying I want to buy it now. I really don't. PE is in the 5's right now, but I already have other things with single-digit PE's and I don't really like the looks of this one. probably not a terrible dividend stock, but if you could get about the same kinda money from somebody that makes toothpaste or something dull, I would probably prefer that.

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#12,086
#12,086
Big Orange#1 said:
10y yield climbing again, nearing 4. Mortgage rates about to cross 7%. 20 years of consistent mortgage rate decline just unwound in 6 months. Rate shock anyone?
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Most home owners are locked into low rates. But it's certainly not a great development for anyone involved in the building/renovating/buying/selling of real estate.
 
#12,088
#12,088
Firebirdparts said:
Wonder how low Intel is likely to go.

I find this mildly interesting because I lived through it. You would not have predicted, in 1999, that intel shares would never attain that share price ever again.

I'm not saying I want to buy it now. I really don't. PE is in the 5's right now, but I already have other things with single-digit PE's and I don't really like the looks of this one. probably not a terrible dividend stock, but if you could get about the same kinda money from somebody that makes toothpaste or something dull, I would probably prefer that.

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The engineers / computer tech guys will put down INTC because they don’t have the state of the art chips. BUT there are really only 3 integrated device manufacturers. By definition there are a couple of dozen IDMs, but in reality there are only 3 that are all in. Samsung, Intel, and Texas Instruments. INTC has 4 times the sales of TXN AND a lower market cap. INTC is 2x sales. TXN is 8x sales.

NVDA and AMD might sell the fanciest chips and dominate GPU sales. But they are fabless. They depend on Taiwan Semi and the much smaller Global Foundries to manufacture their chips. China also manufactures chips. But ASML doesn’t sell the latest generation of photolithography equipment to Communist China.

IMO INTC is oversold.
 
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#12,090
#12,090
Thunder Good-Oil said:
The engineers / computer tech guys will put down INTC because they don’t have the state of the art chips. BUT there are really only 3 integrated device manufacturers. By definition there are a couple of dozen IDNs, but in reality there are only 3 that are all in. Samsung, Intel, and Texas Instruments. INTC has 4 times the sales of TXN AND a lower market cap. INTC is 2x sales. TXN is 8x sales.

NVDA and AMD might sell the fanciest chips and dominate GPU sales. But they are fabless. They depend on Taiwan Semi and the much smaller Global Foundries to manufacture their chips. China also manufactures chips. But ASML doesn’t sell the latest generation of photolithography equipment to Communist China.

IMO INTC is oversold.
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I'm no INTC bull at all but agree this is way oversold...
 
#12,092
#12,092
Velo Vol said:
I don't know. But I'm starting to think that the Fed may pivot (not necessarily an interest rate cut, but QE/QT), not because of the US economy, but because of a meltdown in the bond/foreign exchange markets. Isn't that what first prompted the Fed when COVID hit? The bond market blew up?

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Yes, that must be considered. Balancing on a ledge right now.
 
#12,094
#12,094
Velo Vol said:
My low-degree confidence guess is that due to the cycle in noted post 12,078, and other reasons, we hit a bottom by the end of 2022. In the 3,200-3,600 range.
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It's tough to really say because the ball on housing and the auto industry hasn't dropped yet. Also, it's tough to say what the next few months will being in Europe and China. They have severe problems. This could be a quadruple whammy. I guess my low confidence guess is sometime in spring of 2023. Dow somewhere in the 20k to 23k range at the bottom....but hell, it could go lower than that if more dominoes fall or the war expands in Europe, or China makes a move on Taiwan.
 
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#12,095
#12,095
norrislakevol said:
It's tough to really say because the ball on housing and the auto industry hasn't dropped yet. Also, it's tough to say what the next few months will being in Europe and China. They have severe problems. This could be a quadruple whammy. I guess my low confidence guess is sometime in spring of 2023. Dow somewhere in the 20k to 23k range at the bottom....but hell, it could go lower than that if more dominoes fall or the war expands in Europe, or China makes a move on Taiwan.
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Yeah looks like Europe might enter a full blown depression.
 
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#12,098
#12,098
I am waiting for the financial calamity to calm down, then scoop up cheap shares in the Nasdaq over the next year. Could make a bundle. Nasdaq gonna continue to get crushed over the next few months.
 
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