All things STOCKS

#12,326
#12,326
Thunder Good-Oil said:
It’s not really post-COVID. I think that that is one of the market concerns. It will be here for years and a new variant could surface at any time and disrupt the **** out of everything again. Plus - other pandemics could (and probably will) come around. Figuring out how to be productive with it always lurking is a challenge. We may never get back to the same level of pre-COVID productivity.
Click to expand...
Right. I was using Covid as shorthand for all the economic disruption the last two years.
 
#12,328
#12,328
It's about what you'd expect, I think, in this situation. FWIW. Lots of headline writing and pearl-clutching going on for sure. But we've been through this situation before. This thread is about trading, but this kinda stuff makes people ask "will inflation be 8% forever/rates >5% forever/ why or why not" kind of questions.

P.S. You'd need to be a legitimately dumb person to compare annualized YTD numbers to actual annual history. Even annual history isn't that interesting; the calendar doesn't really have a whole lot to do with the peaks and valleys. But I reckon the hoards of news dispersers gotta eat.
 
  • Like
Reactions: Go aeiou
#12,329
#12,329
Velo Vol said:
Yep, there's a lot of uncertainty. Things post-Covid were already wacky, and now we have one of the fastest interest rate increases in modern times. The economy could break, the bond market could break, something overseas could break.
Click to expand...
I was thinking more that the uncertainties are tiny. Does that make sense? The original question is about the VIX. You've correctly identified the area of uncertainty. I get that. But long term, will we ever look back on this as some sort of important recession? It seems very unlikely.

WHEN (not if) they break it, the market will go down some more. And then it'll go up again later.
 
#12,330
#12,330
Firebirdparts said:
I was thinking more that the uncertainties are tiny. Does that make sense? The original question is about the VIX. You've correctly identified the area of uncertainty. I get that. But long term, will we ever look back on this as some sort of important recession? It seems very unlikely.

WHEN (not if) they break it, the market will go down some more. And then it'll go up again later.
Click to expand...

The only recessions that really stick in my mind are the one in the mid 70s and 2007. The markets had a day in 1987 when it had a huge loss (Dow, 500 points). That was a real shock which lasted only a few days.
It seems like we have had many recessions in the last 50 years. Mostly "no big deal"
 
Last edited:
#12,333
#12,333
Firebirdparts said:
I was thinking more that the uncertainties are tiny. Does that make sense? The original question is about the VIX. You've correctly identified the area of uncertainty. I get that. But long term, will we ever look back on this as some sort of important recession? It seems very unlikely.
Click to expand...
Regarding the VIX, Bob Pisani at 8:30 in this video helped me understand it a bit better. It's essentially the put/call implied volatility in the next 30 days, so you need to hone in on uncertainty within that time frame. A VIX that remains at or above 32 is actually high because it is suggesting daily 2% swings for the next 30 days.

 
#12,335
#12,335
Volfan1000 said:
It will be interesting to see how much longer this bear market will continue.
Click to expand...

Fool dot com (The Motley Fool):

There's bad news and good news about the current bear market.
It's been a tough year for investors, as stock prices continue to fall. The S&P 500 is down more than 24% from its peak in early January, and the Nasdaq and Dow Jones Industrial Average are also in bear market territory.
This type of volatility can be unnerving for even the most experienced investors, especially when there's no light at the end of the tunnel just yet.
While each bear market is different and nobody knows exactly how long this downturn will last, history can provide some hints -- and give us one important reason to be optimistic.

How long does the average bear market last?
Again, each market downturn will be slightly different. However, there are a few important insights we can glean from past S&P 500 bear markets.

  • The longest bear market in history occurred in the wake of the dot-com bubble burst in the early 2000s, lasting a total of 929 days.
  • The shortest bear market lasted just 33 days, in the spring of 2020.
  • Since 1928, the S&P 500 has experienced 21 bear markets (not including the current downturn). That's approximately one every 4.5 years, on average.
  • The average length of a bear market is 388 days.
  • Excluding the longest and shortest bear markets, the average length is around 330 days -- or just under one year.
The S&P 500 began its descent in early January, but it didn't officially enter a bear market until June 13, 2022 -- or 121 days ago, as of this writing. If this bear market follows a similar path to those in the past (which is a big if), it could potentially be a few more months before the market bottoms out.

======================================

The good news about bear markets
While we don't know exactly how long this market slump will last, we do know that things will get better.

Every single bear market in history has eventually given way to a bull market. In fact, not only has the market recovered from downturns, but it's gone on to see positive average returns over time. Since 2000, for example, the S&P 500 is up by more than 145% -- despite experiencing four bear markets in that timeframe.

Bear markets aren't easy to stomach, and it can be emotionally challenging to keep investing when stock prices are falling. But by maintaining a long-term outlook, it will be easier to push through these periods of volatility.

======================================

Keeping your investments safe
Nobody can control how long a bear market lasts, but there are steps you can take to protect your money -- regardless of what happens with the market.

  • Avoid withdrawing your money: Market downturns are one of the worst times to sell your investments, because you'll be selling your stocks when prices are at their lowest -- and locking in those losses. While it's not always easy, keeping your money in the market can better protect your savings.
  • Keep a fully stocked emergency fund:When you have at least three to six months' worth of savings in an emergency fund, it will be easier to avoid tapping your investments (and selling your stocks during a downturn) if you face an unexpected expense.
  • Choose your investments wisely: Not all stocks will survive a bear market, but the companies with solid underlying business fundamentals have the best chances. By filling your portfolio with these stocks, you're far more likely to make it through a downturn unscathed.
If you're just getting started investing or aren't sure where to put your money, you may opt for an S&P 500 ETF -- such as the iShares S&P 500 Core ETF (IVV -2.29%) or SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust (SPY -2.28%). These funds aim to mirror the performance of the S&P 500 itself, which makes them one of the safer investments out there.
 
  • Like
Reactions: DixieVol, Rocky_Top_Vol13, tbh and 1 other person
#12,336
#12,336
Velo Vol said:
Also, an interesting little thread on how retail options trading has exploded this year.

Click to expand...


I bought shares in Intercontinental Exchange (ICE) and CME Group (CME) earlier this year anticipating more interest in futures and options.

I also bought most of the hedge fund and private equity stocks thinking that they will be having huge windfalls once this mess sees an end. BX. APO. CG. KKR. Also HOOD as a broker that has cultivated a younger demo (although with smaller accounts - for now). But HOOD has been screwing up with the meme bail outs AND they depend on payment for order flow for much of their current revenue.

I’m also sitting on ARKF, ARKG, ARKK, and ARKW speculating that she will get rolling again after the bear market. I’ve had GTC limit orders on ARKQ and ARKX that haven’t been triggered. I’ve never tried to buy PRNT or IZRL. They’re too thinly traded to interest me.

Those are all higher risk stocks/ETFSs and I’m speculating. BlackStone (BX) is a solid company though that does not seem like a big risk IMO.
 
#12,338
#12,338
Firebirdparts said:
Well, you’re obviously not scared.
Click to expand...

Or like me. I'm not saying he is. I'm scared. Mostly because we have so many retail traders that are more likely to trade emotionally. I sold about 30-40% of stocks in February, and put some of that money in 2 yr CDs and treasuries when the yeild got decent. 0% interst rates are ridiculous.
buying stocks now. F, CVS, KMI. others.

largest holdings: JNJ, BX, BXMT, MRNA, REGN, TGT, UPS, WFC

Loser is BA. I started buying at $200, and added periodically down to $120, but still at an average price of $150+-. Currently trading at $133.

Point is "it is impossible to time the bottom" except for dumb luck.
 
Last edited:
#12,345
#12,345
Anyone have experience with Fidelity Separately Managed accouns? Just met with a Fidelity advisor and this was his recommendation. tracks the IVV ETF I currently have in my IRA, but is managed to harvest losses in an attempt to lower the taxes I will see in a taxable account.
 
#12,346
#12,346
CountryBoyBob454 said:
Anyone have experience with Fidelity Separately Managed accouns? Just met with a Fidelity advisor and this was his recommendation. tracks the IVV ETF I currently have in my IRA, but is managed to harvest losses in an attempt to lower the taxes I will see in a taxable account.
Click to expand...
I made an appointment to meet with one and will report back my experience. This is a resource within my company 401K program that is a Fidelity account so it may not be a “separately managed account”?
 
#12,347
#12,347
walkenvol said:
I made an appointment to meet with one and will report back my experience. This is a resource within my company 401K program that is a Fidelity account so it may not be a “separately managed account”?
Click to expand...
i Don’t think it would help in a 401k since the gains aren’t taxed until you withdraw
 
#12,349
#12,349
CountryBoyBob454 said:
i Don’t think it would help in a 401k since the gains aren’t taxed until you withdraw
Click to expand...
It’s a service where they offer advice on portfolio equity to bond ratio, social security strategies, retirement account spending strategies, etc. Don’t think they’re offering advice on specific equities - I’d think it will be very generic. I think they’re also fishing for potential managed account customers as part of the process which is where they make the real money.
 
  • Like
Reactions: Go aeiou
#12,350
#12,350
walkenvol said:
It’s a service where they offer advice on portfolio equity to bond ratio, social security strategies, retirement account spending strategies, etc. Don’t think they’re offering advice on specific equities - I’d think it will be very generic. I think they’re also fishing for potential managed account customers as part of the process which is where they make the real money.
Click to expand...

The SMA offered to me is a portfolio of stocks. It set up to deliver returns similar to the SP500, but seeks to lower the taxes by providing tax-loss harvesting. It is similar to an ETF, but I would actually own the individual stocks.
 
  • Like
Reactions: Go aeiou and walkenvol
New posts
You must log in or register to reply here.

VN Store



Back
Top