At the end of the day, Alabama has to take a dive

#53
#53
At the end of the day, we can speculate until the cows come home. DeBoer is a solid hire just like Heupel was a solid hire. We can all armchair quarterback all we want. Let these two duke it out, long-term, and we’ll see which one is ultimately better for their respective program. That being said, GBO!!!! V,B!!! Let’s kick some elephant ass!!!!!
 
  • Like
Reactions: stewart6600 and OneVolNation
#54
#54
volfan102455 said:
That is not how it will work. The top team from each of the four major conferences are in. Then the top ranked non P4 conference is in. The rest (7 non automatic teams) are then from the order as ranked in the CFP rankings. If you look at any year regardless of what a team did and what conference those that do the rankings tend to place the 1 loss teams from the top conferences in front of any 2-loss team.

I don't see the SEC getting 5 unless the teams in the other conferences start to beat each other. There are just 7 non-automatic teams and 4 conferences where the second and third best are vying for the spots. The SEC is not getting 5 of those unless there are 5 SEC teams with 1 loss or less, which there will not be given current records and schedules. There are 7 SEC teams in that category right now, but many have games with each other so that number will dwindle down to 2 or 3 before the season ends. We may see a record number of teams with 2 losses.

Another way to look at it is that the 7 will come from the pool of teams that finished 2 and 3 in the P4 conferences. I expect # 2 from each conference unless they have > 2 losses to be in. That leaves 3. It will be then which are the best #3 teams out of those 4 conferences.

I think SEC gets 3. B1G gets 3 and either the ACC or B12 gets 3 so it is more like 3-3-3-2-1. If one of the other conferences ends up with the 3rd best team having 3 losses and there is a fourth SEC team with only 2 losses, maybe that would be 4.

For 5 SEC teams to get in, the SEC needs for chaos to happen in the other 3 conferences.
Click to expand...

ACC and Big12 will not get 3. They are consider lesser conferences. Sankey and the B1G commissioner would threaten to leave the playoff if that happened. I am pretty confident that at least 7-8 teams will need to be from either B1G or SEC.
 
#55
#55
Nico ee-ah-MAH-LAY-ah-va said:
Deboer is 104-12 all time, including a 25-3 record at P4 Washington and a CFP Championship appearance. He was the best coach Alabama could have gotten.
Click to expand...
Best coach they could get still isn’t Saban. Those toothless inbreds will run this guy off after a few years.
 
  • Like
Reactions: Hyperion, Nico ee-ah-MAH-LAY-ah-va, Volfan1000 and 1 other person
#60
#60
miket4god said:
Depends on how we look but probably not.
You can already see the media bias working out. Bama loses to Vandy and then looks bad at times but wins against South Carolina and stays ranked the same.
Tennessee loses to Arkansas then looks bad at times but wins against Florida and drops several spots.
And if Bama wins out after losing to us and Gerogia wins out after losing to Texas they will both be on a several game winning streak and the media will talk about how they have "righted the ship".
But our second loss will be late in the season and fresh on the committee's mind.

I could be wrong but with Georgia at 5 and Bama at 7 and us at 11, the perception is already out there. Hard to overcome.
Click to expand...
Bama has the 2nd best win of the entire CFB season. That is why they didn’t drop after struggling with SCAR. Our best win was against a now 2 loss Oklahoma team that looked BAD against Texas.
 
#64
#64
volbound1700 said:
ACC and Big12 will not get 3. They are consider lesser conferences. Sankey and the B1G commissioner would threaten to leave the playoff if that happened. I am pretty confident that at least 7-8 teams will need to be from either B1G or SEC.
Click to expand...

These are not the same conferences as they have traditionally been.

If each gets 2, which they should if the second-best team has 2 or less losses, that is 8 plus the non-P4 bid makes 9. That leaves only 3. Then there is Notre Dame - if they end up with only 1 loss, they are probably in as they will creep up into the top 10 as other teams lose. That leaves 2.

Unless we see chaos in the other conferences, I truly believe at the end of the year it will be more like 3 SEC, 3 B1G, 2 ACC, 2 B12, 1 non P4 and Notre Dame. The only way for the SEC and B1G to get 4 is if Notre Dame tanks or the second-best team in the B12 and ACC has 3 losses.

In the B12 both BYU and ISU have a good chance to finish undefeated, which implies one will remain undefeated and 1 will have 1 lose = Both are in.
In the ACC, Miami and Clemson both have a good change to finish 12-0 and 11-1 respectively. Pitt is the wildcard. Unless there are surprises two of those three teams are in.

Unfortunately, I don't see a host of 1 loss teams in the SEC at the end of the year, the unexpected wins by Kentucky, Vandy, and Arkansas took care of that along with the out of conference losses to USC and Notre Dame. Not going to argue whether the schedules are harder or not - just that the poll has always, always at the end of the year lifted up the 0 and 1 loss teams over the 2 loss teams - and if that second loss comes later in the year and not in a championship game it is more difficult to overcome.
 
#65
#65
This is rose colored glasses thinking because Alabama is still a Crimson Juggernaut, and it’s unlikely Tennessee will get that same incredible performance that Vanderbilt had as in they score 2 touchdowns to force Alabama to play catch up.
 
#66
#66
superdave1984 said:
Depends on if they win out. If either loses today and wins out, they could still get in depending on a few other dominoes. TAMU being one of them. If we lose tomorrow, I do not see a realistic path to the playoff. Sitting where we are in the polls puts us on thin ice. We would have to win out and destroy everyone to have a shot.
Click to expand...
Also if Clemson & Miami get in from the ACC, a lot thought the ACC would just get 1 in the F12. Miami looked great vs Florida but basically since then they have looked pedestrian, got lucky with the win vs VT and barely eked out BC but IMO their the worst undefeated P4 team but with their remaining schedule they will get in.
Also that football mastermind Heather Dinnich said if UT loses we will not get in because we have an easy schedule.
 
#67
#67
BigOrangeTrain said:
Are you sure we can score more than 14 points?
Click to expand...

If we hit one or two of those dropped explosives against UF then we would have won comfortably. UF has a statistically better D than Bama in a lot of areas and was exploitable.

I think we know at the end of the first quarter who wins this though. We either see TN score or two 3 and outs where you know it’s over.
 
  • Like
Reactions: BigOrangeTrain and firestorm
#68
#68
Nico ee-ah-MAH-LAY-ah-va said:
If we hit one or two of those dropped explosives against UF then we would have won comfortably. UF has a statistically better D than Bama in a lot of areas and was exploitable.

I think we know at the end of the first quarter who wins this though. We either see TN score or two 3 and outs where you know it’s over.
Click to expand...

It also depends upon the match up on the other side - our defense verses their offense. Two 3 and outs are not bad if the other team also had two 3 and outs.

One thing for certain this doesn't look like it will be the Hooker vs Young explosion where defense was an afterthought.
 
  • Like
Reactions: Nico ee-ah-MAH-LAY-ah-va
#70
#70
volfan102455 said:
It also depends upon the match up on the other side - our defense verses their offense. Two 3 and outs are not bad if the other team also had two 3 and outs.

One thing for certain this doesn't look like it will be the Hooker vs Young explosion where defense was an afterthought.
Click to expand...
I have enough confidence in the D to keep this close for most of the game. Bama just doesn’t want to commit to the run game and are too reliant on Milroe on it too. Theo get a lot of points through his arm. I think it will be similar to the Arky game where Bama racks up a lot of yards but struggles to get TDs at least initially.
 
  • Like
Reactions: firestorm
#72
#72
Tennessee has to play better in the 1st half by scoring touchdowns because they’ll have to play catch up vs a high scoring Crimson Juggernaut if they aren’t scoring touchdowns in the 1st half.
 
#73
#73
volfan102455 said:
These are not the same conferences as they have traditionally been.

If each gets 2, which they should if the second-best team has 2 or less losses, that is 8 plus the non-P4 bid makes 9. That leaves only 3. Then there is Notre Dame - if they end up with only 1 loss, they are probably in as they will creep up into the top 10 as other teams lose. That leaves 2.

Unless we see chaos in the other conferences, I truly believe at the end of the year it will be more like 3 SEC, 3 B1G, 2 ACC, 2 B12, 1 non P4 and Notre Dame. The only way for the SEC and B1G to get 4 is if Notre Dame tanks or the second-best team in the B12 and ACC has 3 losses.

In the B12 both BYU and ISU have a good chance to finish undefeated, which implies one will remain undefeated and 1 will have 1 lose = Both are in.
In the ACC, Miami and Clemson both have a good change to finish 12-0 and 11-1 respectively. Pitt is the wildcard. Unless there are surprises two of those three teams are in.

Unfortunately, I don't see a host of 1 loss teams in the SEC at the end of the year, the unexpected wins by Kentucky, Vandy, and Arkansas took care of that along with the out of conference losses to USC and Notre Dame. Not going to argue whether the schedules are harder or not - just that the poll has always, always at the end of the year lifted up the 0 and 1 loss teams over the 2 loss teams - and if that second loss comes later in the year and not in a championship game it is more difficult to overcome.
Click to expand...

Well you are wrong. Pretty much all the experts pointed out SEC and/or B1G would be getting 4-5 teams each. Go read anything out there. There is a gap now. B1G literally added the top 4 teams of the Pac12 and the SEC added the only two major powers left in the Big12. B1G and SEC are now WAY ahead of the other leagues. Notre Dame is literally the only top 15 program not in either league and they haven't done much since the 1980s.

All these facts are why Clemson and FSU are trying to sue the ACC to get out. ACC and Big12 will be fortunate to get 2 teams in each. Big12 will likely only have 1 team at year end, book it. ACC will depend on whether Miami holds up as I think Clemson gets in. Keep in mind that Clemson already got blown out bad by Georgia from the SEC.

Both Greg Sankey and Tony Petitti (right or wrong) have been open about pushing to get 4 guaranteed spots each for their leagues in the CFB Playoff. If they start sticking 10-2 ACC/Big12 teams over Tennessee (or any B1G/SEC team), it will start the push for B1G and SEC to break away and make another playoff.



Notre Dame has the lost to Northern Illinois. It will take a lot to overcome that and I think Notre Dame will drop another and fall out.

As for your last paragraph, 2-loss B1G and SEC teams will be in over 2-loss ACC or Big12 teams. The only way the ACC/Big12 teams get in is if they are undefeated or have 1 loss (if undefeated, they are likely auto-bids anyways as conference champions).
 
#74
#74
volbound1700 said:
Well you are wrong. Pretty much all the experts pointed out SEC and/or B1G would be getting 4-5 teams each. Go read anything out there. There is a gap now. B1G literally added the top 4 teams of the Pac12 and the SEC added the only two major powers left in the Big12. B1G and SEC are now WAY ahead of the other leagues. Notre Dame is literally the only top 15 program not in either league and they haven't done much since the 1980s.
Click to expand...

Watching and listening to commentary from the Texas - UGA game, I don't think many still believe there will be 4-5 from the SEC. Those who thought that probably expected Bama to have only 1 loss and Tennessee to be undefeated. And Missouri and Ole Miss to be undefeated. As of just a few seconds ago - there are no undefeated SEC teams left.

BYU and ISU both being undefeated is a surprise. Pitt being undefeated is a surprise. Miami and Clemson being where they are at is a surprise.

I see no more than 4 SEC teams at this point - unless some of the undefeated teams from the other conferences start losing.
 
  • Like
Reactions: UT Hill Man
#75
#75
volfan102455 said:
Watching and listening to commentary from the Texas - UGA game, I don't think many still believe there will be 4-5 from the SEC. Those who thought that probably expected Bama to have only 1 loss and Tennessee to be undefeated. And Missouri and Ole Miss to be undefeated. As of just a few seconds ago - there are no undefeated SEC teams left.

BYU and ISU both being undefeated is a surprise. Pitt being undefeated is a surprise. Miami and Clemson being where they are at is a surprise.

I see no more than 4 SEC teams at this point - unless some of the undefeated teams from the other conferences start losing.
Click to expand...

What I will stat is that a 10-2 SEC (or B1G) will ALWAYS get in over a 10-2 ACC/Big12 team and probably even a 10-2 Notre Dame team considering ND lost to NIU.

Now whether an 11-1 ACC/Big12 team gets in over a 10-2 B1G or SEC team is the question.
 
New posts
You must log in or register to reply here.

VN Store



Back
Top