Back to back years of finishing with a better class than Florida

#31
#31
knox-townVOL said:
This is a massive step towards finally turning the tide in that series. They have fielded a more talented team than us almost every year for the last 15 years or so.

The exceptions would be Butch's back to back classes, but that only counted on the field in 2016, since most of them dropped off anyways.

This should not go unappreciated.
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Only based off numbers. They have 18 4* to our 12. Likewise, we have 12, 3* to their 2. They avg. a 92.34 per player to our 90.72. Theoretically, they are still more talented
 
#32
#32
PurpleTraveler said:
As noted earlier, five stars give tons of points. Do you want a class of three five stars and 22 scrubs, or 25 four stars?

There is no perfect statistical measure for whee makes a recruiting class best - but you want the most best players you can get. The first 15 players matter the most since not everyone will get to play, you'll want attrition to get other players, so the rest can be used on projects.

Obviously team need matters a huge amount and is not incorporated. A perfectly balanced class everytime is a great ideal, but overtime some position groups will develop better than others, you may have more talent available at a position one year, etc and simply have different needs to fill.
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Don’t think your math is quite right there. Regardless, an average player rating of 92 or better (per 247 ratings) would be a great first step towards a top 5 class, that’s where the separation begins. Not much difference in the rest of the top 15.
 
#33
#33
ScornedPapaVol said:
Classes 1-5 are an order of magnitude better classes 10-15. But that should be obvious. What's also obvious is the fact that Georgia, Alabama & Ohio State have all signed a majority of the upper level talent in the recent past. And they've also made the four team playoff & won it more than most of the other teams. Top level talent is the way to the championship.
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Top talent you say? Lets state some more obvious...
 
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#34
#34
Recruit well, coach well, play well on the field. Isn’t that what we want from the football program? Are we not Orange through and through, no matter what?

If you insist that your team be #1 in recruiting, rankings, and after the post season, then you’ve missed your calling to be a Bama fan.
 
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#35
#35
It's still a little disappointing to see that we are rated 5th or 6th in SEC recruiting rankings.

Gonna be hard to make headway when that many teams recruit better. (Bama and Ga. coaching staffs are good also, so don't bring the "diamonds in the rough" cliche out)
 
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#36
#36
vol_in_ga said:
Don’t think your math is quite right there. Regardless, an average player rating of 92 or better (per 247 ratings) would be a great first step towards a top 5 class, that’s where the separation begins. Not much difference in the rest of the top 15.
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Definitely no actual math involved. Just a crude example intended to highlight that you can get the same average with different talent distributions due to how points are assigned. The concept of giving 5 stars a lot of points can make sense since there are a few players who win games single-handedly. The hit rate on those players as five stars is lower than the bust rate so I'm not sure the five star designation really matters as the points would indicate.

In terms of the natural breaks, if there is a drop off between 5 and 6 for how the points have been assigned to players, some of that will be real, since a few teams do get a disproportionate number of legitimately best players, however a lot is an artifact of the rankings. Given the inability of the ranking services to do more than squint and handwave at how good a player has been in many cases (yes, higher stars are a better predictor than lower stars across all the kids ranked - they aren't wholly devoid of information) the thing that really matters is to get a population of highly rated recruits. If you have 15 ~4 stars your class is as good as you need to win a national championship unless your coach can't evaluate talent, which most of the top coaches can do. As noted earlier, "experts agree" that most of the top classes are about equal, even if the points say otherwise.

Also worth noting I haven't really paid much attention to the ranking services for the last few years, so I apologize if my pontification is ignorant of recent, fundamental changes to how the ranking systems work.
 
#37
#37
Florida ain't our problem. Sorry to burst your bubble but we didn't close the distance with UGA, LSU or Bama.

They ain't done yet either.
 
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#38
#38
PurpleTraveler said:
As noted earlier, five stars give tons of points. Do you want a class of three five stars and 22 scrubs, or 25 four stars?

There is no perfect statistical measure for whee makes a recruiting class best - but you want the most best players you can get. The first 15 players matter the most since not everyone will get to play, you'll want attrition to get other players, so the rest can be used on projects.

Obviously team need matters a huge amount and is not incorporated. A perfectly balanced class everytime is a great ideal, but overtime some position groups will develop better than others, you may have more talent available at a position one year, etc and simply have different needs to fill.
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5 stars matter a lot. Just go back and look at each championship team and how many 5 stars each had vs everyone else. Plus the borderline 4 stars in the composite but who are 5 stars in one ranking.

Now to your point, look at Texas with only 10 4 star players but a Top 3 ranked class. Personally, I'd take several classes ranked below theirs for the overall depth.

Let's compare the total number of 4 stars in each class.:
(247 rank) school. 4 star recruits + 5 stars
(1) Alabama 20 + 6
(2) Georgia 20 +2
(9) Notre Dame 20 +0
(5) Ohio St 18 +1
(6) LSU 18 +1
(11) Clemson 18 +1
(12) Florida 18 +0
(7) Oregon 15 +3
(15) PSU 15 +1
(4) Miami 14 +3
(8) Oklahoma 13 +2
(16) S Carolina 13 +0
(10) Tennessee 12 +1
(3) Texas 10 +4
(14) Texas A&M 10 +2

So as you can see, Tennessee signed 4 less (4 and 5 star recruits) than Florida, and tied with Cackalack for 13th in the country with 13 such players (making for a great and competitive rivalry between the two schools moving forward.) The parity between the two programs is also why UT-USC is frequently broadcast in primetime, but I digress.

So anyway, by this measure UT's signing haul would be 5th in the SEC and 7th counting future members. Not exactly the blueprint for winning championships, but better than the previous 2 years when only 8 and 6 such players were signed.

If you look back to 2020 and 2019, the Vols signed 13 and 12, which was the nucleus for this year's season, so at least back on the right track.
 
#39
#39
PurpleTraveler said:
Definitely no actual math involved. Just a crude example intended to highlight that you can get the same average with different talent distributions due to how points are assigned. The concept of giving 5 stars a lot of points can make sense since there are a few players who win games single-handedly. The hit rate on those players as five stars is lower than the bust rate so I'm not sure the five star designation really matters as the points would indicate.

In terms of the natural breaks, if there is a drop off between 5 and 6 for how the points have been assigned to players, some of that will be real, since a few teams do get a disproportionate number of legitimately best players, however a lot is an artifact of the rankings. Given the inability of the ranking services to do more than squint and handwave at how good a player has been in many cases (yes, higher stars are a better predictor than lower stars across all the kids ranked - they aren't wholly devoid of information) the thing that really matters is to get a population of highly rated recruits. If you have 15 ~4 stars your class is as good as you need to win a national championship unless your coach can't evaluate talent, which most of the top coaches can do. As noted earlier, "experts agree" that most of the top classes are about equal, even if the points say otherwise.

Also worth noting I haven't really paid much attention to the ranking services for the last few years, so I apologize if my pontification is ignorant of recent, fundamental changes to how the ranking systems work.
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Actually, the "Experts" don't agree. This century, only 2 programs have failed to play for a National title within 4 years of having two or more #1 recruiting class - FSU and USCw. Only 4 programs- Miami. FSU, UF, and USC didn't play for a Natty after a single #1 recruiting class.

Clemson is the only school to win a title this century without at least 1 Top 10 class, and they had DeShawn Watson. Auburn is another outlier with only one Top 10 class, and that team had Cam Newton and a boatload of luck with 2 miracle plays vs UGA and Bama.

Sorry. It's not as simple as signing a Top 15 class and coaching 'em up.
 
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#44
#44
CNCVol88 said:
Listening to the people who are more in the know the difference between 1 and 15 isn't astronomical.
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In the top 15-20 mainly the coaching separates the masses. They aren't all going to the same school. The talent gets spread around for the most part.
 
#46
#46
Well... If we have to start competing with South Carolina for recruits, we'll need to seriously adjust our expectations. It's an average class by UT standards. Nothing more, nothing less. THIS was our year to have an elite Top 5 class. Those of you who think it will be better next year are being WAY too premature. I doubt we go 10-2 again. We'd better hope that 8-4 is our basement. I don't think elite recruits will be thrilled with 8-4. But you never know.
 
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#47
#47
orangemadam said:
It's still a little disappointing to see that we are rated 5th or 6th in SEC recruiting rankings.

Gonna be hard to make headway when that many teams recruit better. (Bama and Ga. coaching staffs are good also, so don't bring the "diamonds in the rough" cliche out)
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The 247 composite has us as the 4th best SEC class.
 
#48
#48
jeff1vol said:
Well... If we have to start competing with South Carolina for recruits, we'll need to seriously adjust our expectations. It's an average class by UT standards. Nothing more, nothing less. THIS was our year to have an elite Top 5 class. Those of you who think it will be better next year are being WAY too premature. I doubt we go 10-2 again. We'd better hope that 8-4 is our basement. I don't think elite recruits will be thrilled with 8-4. But you never know.
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None of you are giving extra weight to the consideration that Tennessee signed a 5 star QB, rated #4 overall in the class by 247, and what Iamaleava will mean to the program if he does pan out. A lot rides with him. The average Tennessee class does not include this type of QB prospect.

... and you don't necessarily reap the benefits of a breakthrough season as it is happening. With the early signing period, much of the cycle is over with by the time the season even starts. I do expect next year to better ... but there is defintiely nothing wrong with this class, except I would have hoped for better WR's - but that will come.
 
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#49
#49
BowlBrother85 said:
None of you are giving extra weight to the consideration that Tennessee signed a 5 star QB, rated #5 overall in the class by 247, and what Iamaleava will mean to the program if he does pan out. A lot rides with him. The average Tennessee class does not include this type of QB prospect.

... and you don't necessarily reap the benefits of a breakthrough season as it is happening. With the early signing period, much of the cycle is over with by the time the season even starts. I do expect next year to better ... but there is defintiely nothing wrong with this class, except I would have hoped for better WR's - but that will come.
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I agree with you for the most part. The performance of the QB will make or break us. WHomever it ends up being.
 
#50
#50
This was one of the better defensive classes we’ve had in a long while. We’re improving in talent at some key areas there. Highest rated QB in two decades.

Georgia and Bama are still recruiting at super high levels that didn’t change but some saying Tennessee isn’t getting better. That’s just flat out wrong. Gap is narrowing some considering we’ve been under on scholarship players period. Talent and depth has been terrible. Tennessee is going to be a much better team on the defensive side of the ball with the additions of this class.
 
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