Beat the Ducks: Compare UT 13 vs. Stanford 12

#1
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WiseOlVol

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#1
Stanford:
Beat #2 Ore at Autzen 17-14 in OT (11/17/12)
QB Hogan was a Redshirt 3* Freshman w/ Decent Mobility
OLine had 37 combined starts (103/126 in FBS)
Ran 41 times for 200 yards
Held the ball for 37 minutes
D Gave up 405 Yds
2d Year HCoach

Tennessee:
OLine has 123 starts (2/126 in FBS)
New HCoach w/ 77 Games (50-27)
New QB(s), New O Scheme(s) and New D Scheme....none of which Oregon will have seen much of before Sept 14.

Oregon:
Lost HCoach Chip Kelly; Replaced by OC Mark Helfrich (0-0)
Lost 12 Starters
> 3 LBs
> 4 OL
> Top DL
> Kenyon Barner (1767 Yds Rush/267 Rec.)
> P and K

Recruiting Classes (Rivals):

Stanford
2013 63
2012 5
2011 22
2010 26

Oregon
2013 22
2012 16
2011 9
2010 13

Tennessee
2013 21
2012 17
2011 13
2010 9

Still think we're 25-point Dogs here?
 
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#5
#5
the question people have to ask themselves is if the failures of tennessee football were due entirely to derek dooley's coaching ability only (x's and o's, preparation, etc)....

or

if the failure was due to coaching and a talent problem. for me, it was dooley and a talent problem.

now, i will pick on my gators here to prove a point. keep in mind, i am as big a star gazer as you will find. but, there is a point where andre debose is no longer a 5* receiver, jeff driskel is not a 5* qb, xavier nixon is not a 5* tackle, etc, etc, etc.

eventually, they are what the results on the field say they are.
 
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#6
#6
What Oregon has going for it is the confidence to win and a home field advantage with Tennessee having to travel thousands of miles early in a season to play.

It is easy to get caught up in the subjective hype that surrounds Oregon. They win. That isn't debatable.

The problem is that when determining the value of a win, you must determine the value of the opposition. If you rank the PAC's teams by recruiting averages you see that they skew well below even average SEC teams. Yes, SoCal is the anomoly in the PAC (average top 5 classes or so) but Kiffin gets less out of his talent than Dooley did.

I won't spoil the fun for you guys, and you won't listen anyway, but go back and look at Oregon's performances against teams who out recruit them. You start to see that their talent averages, as per usual, dictate their performance outcomes.

In this case, UT and Oregon have the same recruiting averages. I am not predicting a win for Tennessee but I think the idea that the game is un-winnable or that a 25 point spread is reasonable are questionable conclusions at best.
 
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#8
#8
Remember we held our own in Knoxville for the first half. I'd say out of 100 games at Oregon, we might win about 5 of them. Wouldn't it be spectacular if we pull the upset?
 
#10
#10
daj2576 said:
by 35 in Knoxville, with a decimated UT roster, and a coach who ultimately proved he had an uncanny ability to lose spectacularly.
Click to expand...

It's still our worst home loss in team history, and it was by a team that had traveled 2500 miles the day before the game.
 
#11
#11
spudvol said:
They beat us by 35 in Knoxville, 25 isn't an unreasonable amount on the road.
Click to expand...

Homer or not... I think we cover. And cover well. Whoever our QB is will determine the outcome of this game. He has to manage the game more so than any QB since Rick Clausen. They will score points, but we have to maintain composure.
 
#13
#13
RDU VOL#14 said:
Homer or not... I think we cover. And cover well. Whoever our QB is will determine the outcome of this game. He has to manage the game more so than any QB since Rick Clausen. They will score points, but we have to maintain composure.
Click to expand...

I'm excited to see how the OL can run block with the QB getting them into the right play.
 
#15
#15
daj2576 said:
What Oregon has going for it is the confidence to win and a home field advantage with Tennessee having to travel thousands of miles early in a season to play.

It is easy to get caught up in the subjective hype that surrounds Oregon. They win. That isn't debatable.

The problem is that when determining the value of a win, you must determine the value of the opposition. If you rank the PAC's teams by recruiting averages you see that they skew well below even average SEC teams. Yes, SoCal is the anomoly in the PAC (average top 5 classes or so) but Kiffin gets less out of his talent than Dooley did.



I won't spoil the fun for you guys, and you won't listen anyway, but go back and look at Oregon's performances against teams who out recruit them. You start to see that their talent averages, as per usual, dictate their performance outcomes.

In this case, UT and Oregon have the same recruiting averages. I am not predicting a win for Tennessee but I think the idea that the game is un-winnable or that a 25 point spread is reasonable are questionable conclusions at best.
Click to expand...

3 straight Top 5 finishes isn't subjective hype, it is reality. Mariota/Thomas is the best QB/RB combo they have ever had, add to that a 2500 mile flight for us plus our inexperience at the skill positions together with a new coaching staff and a 25 point spread is reasonable. We'll know soon enough.
 
#16
#16
I hope we beat Oregon, but it's unlikely. What I saw at the orange and white game was deffenitly not a team that can beat Oregon. I hope they shock me, but I'm still goin on the give butch a couple of years before we judge him as a coach. 6 regular season wins and 1 bowl win will make me happy. It will show me were goin in the right direction and that's fine by me. If they surprise me and do better than that's just icing on the cake.
 
#17
#17
Just because we have a steel wall to protect our bad quarterback doesn't mean we can (1) stop them from scoring, and (2) score enough to keep up with them.
That's why we're a 25pt dog.
 
#18
#18
fade route said:
I just can't understand why so many think we can beat Oregon in their house.
Click to expand...

All depends on, if we can effect the QB. If that guy can't run and make plays, it will be a lot closer then people think. That being said, I think they beat us.
 
#23
#23
WiseOlVol said:
Stanford:
Beat #2 Ore at Autzen 17-14 in OT (11/17/12)
QB Hogan was a Redshirt 3* Freshman w/ Decent Mobility
OLine had 37 combined starts (103/126 in FBS)
Ran 41 times for 200 yards
Held the ball for 37 minutes
D Gave up 405 Yds
2d Year HCoach

Tennessee:
OLine has 123 starts (2/126 in FBS)
New HCoach w/ 77 Games (50-27)
New QB(s), New O Scheme(s) and New D Scheme....none of which Oregon will have seen much of before Sept 14.

Oregon:
Lost HCoach Chip Kelly; Replaced by OC Mark Helfrich (0-0)
Lost 12 Starters
> 3 LBs
> 4 OL
> Top DL
> Kenyon Barner (1767 Yds Rush/267 Rec.)
> P and K

Recruiting Classes (Rivals):

Stanford
2013 63
2012 5
2011 22
2010 26

Oregon
2013 22
2012 16
2011 9
2010 13

Tennessee
2013 21
2012 17
2011 13
2010 9

Still think we're 25-point Dogs here?
Click to expand...

I don't know what to expect. I do know that these stats are so out of date they can not be used to compare strengths of the teams. While the recruiting classes could lead someone who doesn't dig any deeper to assume that our talent should be superior, the truth remains that Tennessee has experienced a sever amount of attrition in those recruiting classes. We did not recruit much speed in those classes and most of the speed we did recruit is no longer with the team. Speed wins football games. Oregon has speed. We, Tennessee, do not have speed!
On the other hand, we have, for the first time in the last 3-4 years have a dramatic coach, a will conditioned team, energy, a great offensive line, a pretty good defensive line, and good line backers. However, we have unknown talent at Quarterback, wide receiver, and defensive secondary. We have very little depth at any position and we are not very fast at any position. I believe we will surprise the odds makers, and do not believe we are 25 point dogs, especially if we do not turn the ball over and can avoid injuries. Oregon is a very fast and talented team. We will find out what kind of team we have and where we need to improve. On the field coaching can be the difference and some people at ESPN say we have one of the bet on field coaches in College football. It should be a good football game and I can hardly wait to see our new VOLs.
 
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