Except that Virginia is a school that is not in the picture. Basketball is irrelevant in this deal. Its about money and football = money.
I'm not enamored with VA Tech, but what has UVA done on the field of play--say in the last decade--that would make me excited about it, either?
I'm not enamored with VA Tech, but what has UVA done on the field of play--say in the last decade--that would make me excited about it, either?
If we're talking about football, pretty much nothing aside from having really nice facilities. They almost won the ACC a few years back, but that's not saying a whole lot.
Same with basketball, though they've been historically pretty good, they've not been too amazing lately. But like football, they have top tier basketball facilities (much, much better basketball program than Va Tech).
They have the number one team in college baseball this year, and are top tier in most non-revenue sports, like tennis, swimming, soccer, etc.
Given the fact that they've sucked at revenue sports for the better part of a decade, and still bring in more money and have nicer facilities than their in state rival, Va Tech, I view Virginia as being a much better program in the long run. They've been held back recently by poor coaching, but they've got new people in and if they're worth anything, the tide will soon change in Virginia sports. Va Tech in comparison to Virginia has many disadvantages, but has overcome them recently with good coaching (in football only). It won't last forever.
I personally do not see the SEC going north of the Mason Dixon, nor do I see them choosing schools that offer very little in terms of football just because of their basketball. They simply do not have to. This is all about the BCS. Basketball money is a drop in the bucket compared to football.
Texas A&M, VT, GT, Clemson, FSU, and Miami are probably the most realistic of options.
Missouri played their cards way too soon and will probably have to wait until the dust starts to settle to be chosen. Maybe not, but it looks like they were getting the cold shoulder from the B10 today.
I think that the B10 would rather have ND, Syracuse, Maryland, and Rutgers before Missouri. If Syracuse, the Terps, and Rutgers all say yes, ND may start to feel pressure to finally join the B10. If those teams start to decline, then I think you see teams like Missouri and Kansas start to become fall back options.
I would think that Kansas would prefer to go to the Big 10 due to proximity and revenue. If there is not a spot due to fallout, there would be open spots in the ACC and Big East. If the ACC gets plundered by the B10 and SEC, I see no option but for the ACC to plunder the Big East and any schools like Missouri and Kansas that could be leftover.
Something to keep in mind as all of this starts to go down. If a conference drops below 6 members that have been together for at least 5 seasons, they lose their automatic berths to the BCS regardless of who they replace them with. This will be important as conferences like the B12 get broken up and schools from places like the ACC get cherry picked.
Where have you guys been? This whole thing is about $$$ and TV contracts. Sure, program prestige should play a role, but this is the SEC - the monster of all conferences already. We could stay the same and still garner lots of respect.
Of the major markets, here are some
Market Sizes
DC(VT) - 2.3 Million
Richmond(VT) - 550,000
TriCities(VT/UT) - 350,000
Memphis - 600,000
L'ville - 670,000
I just think VT would help expand SEC exposure.
Neither Colorado nor Nebraska were considering a jump to the SEC, nor were they being courted to join. So, they simply had to choose between staying in the Big 12, or accepting an invitation to join the Big 10 and Pac-10, respectively. If the other four (TX, AM, OK, OKS) are facing a similiar choice of those two options, alone, what's preventing them from doing the same?
IMO, the more time that passes without their announcement to the Pac-10 could be an indicator of their efforts to salvage the Big 12.....or of the growing strength of the SEC's case. It doesn't seem that a unanimous decision to jump to the Pac-10 would require this much deliberation, and certainly no more than either Nebraska or Colorado similiarly required.
If there truly wasn't an honest debate as to where the other four will land (TX, AM, OK, OKS), there seems to be little reason why they would delay their intentions to join the Pac-10.
They could come out and announce it at noon today for all I know, but until the SEC has had its say and been rebuffed, it's folly to think that anyone can predict how this might turn out.
Couple of other quick notes:
I haven't heard anything about the Oklahoma AD saying that a move to the Pac-10 was imminent, but rather, that they would accompany Texas to wherever they went, insofar as it was possible to do so.
I did hear (but cannot remember on which site) that there are rumors that both Auburn and Alabama have already been asked to join the Eastern Division to allow for two "Western" teams to enter the SEC. If true, that's obviously significant, but likely, its wholly rumor-based, unsubstantiated and unconfirmed.
Isn't the ultimately about TV viewers for each conference--and they way you do that is to expand your conference's geographic footprint and gain new markets and viewers.
It's not necessarily about viewers. It's about money. The SEC has more viewers (ratings) than the Big ten, but the Big ten gets more revenue due to the Big 10 network being part of the cable package within their area (s).