Paul is playing way too hard. Alex is in a very good position. She's about to send home someone that about 5 people really like, and none of them seem to be mad at her or focused on her. Maybe Elena is a little mad about it, but that's at a damage control level that's about as much as you can hope for. I think she just kinda got lucky in that regard, tho
Alex has the personality for a great social game, but I don't think she has the mind for it.