Blue Chip ratio among teams that have won national championships.

[Adam2014]

So help me understand these two posts in comparison to one another.

Brave says we're currently at 46%, and can't win a national title without being above 50%, preferably above 60%.

Adam says we're at 57% (46% was last year, according to his numbers). That puts us firmly in national title contention range.

So which are we, 46% or 57%? Please explain as if I'm a recruiting neophyte, because I honestly don't follow the stars much at all.

Thanks!



According to what I'm reading up above, we may already be there. Right?

Go Vols!

I believe the 46% refers to the entire roster. The 57% number is just for the recruiting class of that year. I can see how that might be confusing, so I edited my post to be less confusing hopefully.

 

[VolBalla2014]

Blue-Chip Ratio 2024: These 16 college football teams can actually win the national championship

www-cbssports-com.cdn.ampproject.org

This is a very interesting read and kind of a sober reminder of where Tennessee currently sits in the pecking order of team blue chip talent

In a nutshell, no team since 2011 has won a natty that didn't have a team blue chip ratio above 50% and only 3 of those 13 teams won it with a ratio below 60%...

2023: Michigan (54%)
2016: Clemson (53%)
2013: FSU (53%)

And what do all 3 of those teams have in common? Yep, none of them are in the SEC.

Where does Tennessee sit with its current roster? They are at 46% and out of the top 16.

I say all this just to illustrate that coach Huepel and his staff still have a lot of work to do to get our team talent level to a point where we can seriously compete for championships. If they can swing a top 5 class this year, that would be an excellent start! But I'd say we are still a couple of top 5 recruiting classes away from busting through to that 50-60% barrier.

A couple of notes, 1.) this does not take into account the transfer portal because according to the study, it has yet to make a significant impact in terms of the teams who won. And 2.) It remains to be seen if the expanded 12 team playoffs has any impact on this.

Once again, you guys pretend like the NCAA sanctions never happened. You guys love to forget how strict the recruiting punishments were when Heupel got here and what he had to deal with. So here's a reminder of the uphill battle that Heupel has had to fight because of Pruitt's dumbassery

-A legislated fine of $5,000 plus 3% of the entire football budget
-Five years of probation.
-Reduction of 28 football scholarships throughout the probationary period, with a minimum of two scholarships per year.
-Reduction of 36 football official visits during the probationary period, including at least four visits per year. Tennessee will prohibit official visits for a total of 10 regular-season home games, four of which must involve SEC opponents.
-Reduction of 40 weeks for football unofficial visits during the probationary period, with a minimum of six weeks per year. Tennessee will prohibit unofficial visits for 10 regular-season home games, including four against SEC opponents.
-A 28-week ban on recruiting communications during the probationary period, including at least three weeks per year. This includes one week each in December and January, and one week between March and June.
-reduction of 120 evaluation days throughout the probationary period.

Do you not see how much better recruiting has gotten this year since Heupel and Danny White have navigated/ front loaded many of these sanctions?

 

[VolBalla2014]

Jimmys and Joes got to have them .

-A legislated fine of $5,000 plus 3% of the entire football budget
-Five years of probation.
-Reduction of 28 football scholarships throughout the probationary period, with a minimum of two scholarships per year.
-Reduction of 36 football official visits during the probationary period, including at least four visits per year. Tennessee will prohibit official visits for a total of 10 regular-season home games, four of which must involve SEC opponents.
-Reduction of 40 weeks for football unofficial visits during the probationary period, with a minimum of six weeks per year. Tennessee will prohibit unofficial visits for 10 regular-season home games, including four against SEC opponents.
-A 28-week ban on recruiting communications during the probationary period, including at least three weeks per year. This includes one week each in December and January, and one week between March and June.
-reduction of 120 evaluation days throughout the probationary period.

 

[VolBalla2014]

OP, cmon man, there is no room for such objective analysis on VolNation…

-A legislated fine of $5,000 plus 3% of the entire football budget
-Five years of probation.
-Reduction of 28 football scholarships throughout the probationary period, with a minimum of two scholarships per year.
-Reduction of 36 football official visits during the probationary period, including at least four visits per year. Tennessee will prohibit official visits for a total of 10 regular-season home games, four of which must involve SEC opponents.
-Reduction of 40 weeks for football unofficial visits during the probationary period, with a minimum of six weeks per year. Tennessee will prohibit unofficial visits for 10 regular-season home games, including four against SEC opponents.
-A 28-week ban on recruiting communications during the probationary period, including at least three weeks per year. This includes one week each in December and January, and one week between March and June.
-reduction of 120 evaluation days throughout the probationary period.

 

[Pride85]

LOL. Literally NO ONE is saying that.

You know, it is just tiring reading a continual stream of any and all deficiencies of this team. If every positive thread gets continually invaded by negativity, then every thread of this nature deserves the same fate. LOL about every thread like this implies the season is a bust as no one can achieve the ultimate goal unless they meet this statistic that is set in stone. This staff has a lot of ground to make up to be competitive, so why care about the season. The OP implies it will take two or three more years to meet this goal. How else do you interpret the data as presented?

 

[VolBalla2014]

Heupel's recruiting has been steadily improving year over year. I feel like it's at a point we need a good season to keep that going. Less than 9 wins could be a problem. It's such a tough hill to climb in today's SEC. Hopefully the breaks fall our way and the team takes advantage this season.

Or maybe this could have something to do with why recruiting started out slow

-A legislated fine of $5,000 plus 3% of the entire football budget
-Five years of probation.
-Reduction of 28 football scholarships throughout the probationary period, with a minimum of two scholarships per year.
-Reduction of 36 football official visits during the probationary period, including at least four visits per year. Tennessee will prohibit official visits for a total of 10 regular-season home games, four of which must involve SEC opponents.
-Reduction of 40 weeks for football unofficial visits during the probationary period, with a minimum of six weeks per year. Tennessee will prohibit unofficial visits for 10 regular-season home games, including four against SEC opponents.
-A 28-week ban on recruiting communications during the probationary period, including at least three weeks per year. This includes one week each in December and January, and one week between March and June.
-reduction of 120 evaluation days throughout the probationary period.

 

[Pride85]

Even the article doesnt say that. It says we could be an outlier.

It doesn't matter what the article says. Re-read the post and tell me where the OP presented that we could be the outlier? They only state we are at 46% and out of the top 16. That is the negative spin I am railing against.

 

[ZoeVol]

I believe the 46% refers to the entire roster. The 57% number is just for the recruiting class of that year. I can see how that might be confusing, so I edited my post to be less confusing hopefully.

The blue chip ratio for each individual recruiting class is:
2021: 31.25%
2022: 43.48%
2023: 46.15%
2024: 57.14%
2025: 57.14% (Add Sanders and Konanbanny and it goes to 60.8%)
2026: 100% (haha)

The Blue Chip ratio for the whole team is:
2024: 46%
2025: (projected) 55% based off of expected 2025 class
2026: (projected)>55% based off of increasingly productive recruiting-Including #1 Faizon Brandon

Watch out. Vols are moving into that favorable Blue Chip Ratio!

 

[VolBalla2014]

No responses about the NCAA recruiting restrictions? Yeah I figured. The biggest critics are usually the least informed.

 

[Hacksaw]

Good thread, OP! I wonder to what extent player development might be a wild card in all this.

I think the takeaway is: we might shock the world this season...but don't be shocked if we don't.

 

[WillisWG]

Once again, you guys pretend like the NCAA sanctions never happened. You guys love to forget how strict the recruiting punishments were when Heupel got here and what he had to deal with. So here's a reminder of the uphill battle that Heupel has had to fight because of Pruitt's dumbassery

-A legislated fine of $5,000 plus 3% of the entire football budget
-Five years of probation.
-Reduction of 28 football scholarships throughout the probationary period, with a minimum of two scholarships per year.
-Reduction of 36 football official visits during the probationary period, including at least four visits per year. Tennessee will prohibit official visits for a total of 10 regular-season home games, four of which must involve SEC opponents.
-Reduction of 40 weeks for football unofficial visits during the probationary period, with a minimum of six weeks per year. Tennessee will prohibit unofficial visits for 10 regular-season home games, including four against SEC opponents.
-A 28-week ban on recruiting communications during the probationary period, including at least three weeks per year. This includes one week each in December and January, and one week between March and June.
-reduction of 120 evaluation days throughout the probationary period.

Do you not see how much better recruiting has gotten this year since Heupel and Danny White have navigated/ front loaded many of these sanctions?

No one here is pretending or implied the sanctions didn't happen. We all see the efforts by CJH to get the program to a point to compete with the elites.

No need to your post your opinion multiple times, just quote the post then add
your opinion. It will save you some time

 

[WillisWG]

No responses about the NCAA recruiting restrictions? Yeah I figured. The biggest critics are usually the least informed.

Didn't have zip to do with the OP and wasn't a slam on our recruiting.

 

[Brave Volunteer]

Once again, you guys pretend like the NCAA sanctions never happened. You guys love to forget how strict the recruiting punishments were when Heupel got here and what he had to deal with. So here's a reminder of the uphill battle that Heupel has had to fight because of Pruitt's dumbassery

-A legislated fine of $5,000 plus 3% of the entire football budget
-Five years of probation.
-Reduction of 28 football scholarships throughout the probationary period, with a minimum of two scholarships per year.
-Reduction of 36 football official visits during the probationary period, including at least four visits per year. Tennessee will prohibit official visits for a total of 10 regular-season home games, four of which must involve SEC opponents.
-Reduction of 40 weeks for football unofficial visits during the probationary period, with a minimum of six weeks per year. Tennessee will prohibit unofficial visits for 10 regular-season home games, including four against SEC opponents.
-A 28-week ban on recruiting communications during the probationary period, including at least three weeks per year. This includes one week each in December and January, and one week between March and June.
-reduction of 120 evaluation days throughout the probationary period.

Do you not see how much better recruiting has gotten this year since Heupel and Danny White have navigated/ front loaded many of these sanctions?

You act like I started this thread as an indictment on the team and coaching staff. That wasn't my intent at all. The intent of the thread is strictly informational. Its just to give people an actual metric to look at to know where we currently stand from a blue chip talent standpoint, compared to the rest of the college landscape. Some of you are WAY too sensitive! It's good to see metrics like this because it helps to formulate realistic expectations and to define what "success" is for any given season.

 

[ZoeVol]

Im going to take the liberty of projecting a Top 5 recruiting class for 2026 with Faizon Brandon being the #1 recruit that recruits other Blue Chip recruits to the Vols. My estimates would then put our Blue Chip Ratio for 2026 at 64%!

Go Vols! The future is blazingly bright!

 

[MemphisVol77]

They only state we are at 46% and out of the top 16. That is the negative spin I am railing against.

How is that a negative spin?

I don't think OP is saying we shouldn't shoot for the stars. I see it as a pragmatic post neither pumping sunshine nor doom and gloom.

 

[VolBalla2014]

No one here is pretending or implied the sanctions didn't happen. We all see the efforts by CJH to get the program to a point to compete with the elites.

No need to your post your opinion multiple times, just quote the post then add
your opinion. It will save you some time

No there is a need to do it because so many are uninformed on the subject and just think we had #15 recruiting classes due to a lack of trying. I am going to hammer this into their skulls until they get it.

 

[VolBalla2014]

Didn't have zip to do with the OP and wasn't a slam on our recruiting.

"Heupel still has a lot of work to do" as if he hasn't already busted his ass to get us back

 

[OffTackleVol]

Yeah clearly we should just give up. We shouldn’t ever be any out team to sign elite classes to compete for championships. Yeah that’s what everyone is thinking. Good grief.

Could Heupel be the coach that breaks the trend? Absolutely. The likelihood of that is slim. The bottom line is we have to recruit better.

Came pretty close in 2022........with a depth depleted roster.

 

[YankeeVol]

Once again, you guys pretend like the NCAA sanctions never happened. You guys love to forget how strict the recruiting punishments were when Heupel got here and what he had to deal with. So here's a reminder of the uphill battle that Heupel has had to fight because of Pruitt's dumbassery

-A legislated fine of $5,000 plus 3% of the entire football budget
-Five years of probation.
-Reduction of 28 football scholarships throughout the probationary period, with a minimum of two scholarships per year.
-Reduction of 36 football official visits during the probationary period, including at least four visits per year. Tennessee will prohibit official visits for a total of 10 regular-season home games, four of which must involve SEC opponents.
-Reduction of 40 weeks for football unofficial visits during the probationary period, with a minimum of six weeks per year. Tennessee will prohibit unofficial visits for 10 regular-season home games, including four against SEC opponents.
-A 28-week ban on recruiting communications during the probationary period, including at least three weeks per year. This includes one week each in December and January, and one week between March and June.
-reduction of 120 evaluation days throughout the probationary period.

Do you not see how much better recruiting has gotten this year since Heupel and Danny White have navigated/ front loaded many of these sanctions?

-A legislated fine of $5,000 plus 3% of the entire football budget
-Five years of probation.
-Reduction of 28 football scholarships throughout the probationary period, with a minimum of two scholarships per year.
-Reduction of 36 football official visits during the probationary period, including at least four visits per year. Tennessee will prohibit official visits for a total of 10 regular-season home games, four of which must involve SEC opponents.
-Reduction of 40 weeks for football unofficial visits during the probationary period, with a minimum of six weeks per year. Tennessee will prohibit unofficial visits for 10 regular-season home games, including four against SEC opponents.
-A 28-week ban on recruiting communications during the probationary period, including at least three weeks per year. This includes one week each in December and January, and one week between March and June.
-reduction of 120 evaluation days throughout the probationary period.

-A legislated fine of $5,000 plus 3% of the entire football budget
-Five years of probation.
-Reduction of 28 football scholarships throughout the probationary period, with a minimum of two scholarships per year.
-Reduction of 36 football official visits during the probationary period, including at least four visits per year. Tennessee will prohibit official visits for a total of 10 regular-season home games, four of which must involve SEC opponents.
-Reduction of 40 weeks for football unofficial visits during the probationary period, with a minimum of six weeks per year. Tennessee will prohibit unofficial visits for 10 regular-season home games, including four against SEC opponents.
-A 28-week ban on recruiting communications during the probationary period, including at least three weeks per year. This includes one week each in December and January, and one week between March and June.
-reduction of 120 evaluation days throughout the probationary period.

Or maybe this could have something to do with why recruiting started out slow

-A legislated fine of $5,000 plus 3% of the entire football budget
-Five years of probation.
-Reduction of 28 football scholarships throughout the probationary period, with a minimum of two scholarships per year.
-Reduction of 36 football official visits during the probationary period, including at least four visits per year. Tennessee will prohibit official visits for a total of 10 regular-season home games, four of which must involve SEC opponents.
-Reduction of 40 weeks for football unofficial visits during the probationary period, with a minimum of six weeks per year. Tennessee will prohibit unofficial visits for 10 regular-season home games, including four against SEC opponents.
-A 28-week ban on recruiting communications during the probationary period, including at least three weeks per year. This includes one week each in December and January, and one week between March and June.
-reduction of 120 evaluation days throughout the probationary period.

Hey, did something happen?

 

[VOLociraptorr]

I think Auburn with Cam Newton, where just outside the Top 20 and won it last I remember.

To say that man drug them to a national championship would be an understatement.

This is a tweet from Cubelic
Cam Newton is the only member of the 2010 Auburn National Championship team with an NFL reception, rush attempt or pass attempt & only 1 OL started an NFL game.

 

[Brave Volunteer]

"Heupel still has a lot of work to do" as if he hasn't already busted his ass to get us back

How is that relevant to anything the report says? As of TODAY, the numbers are what they are, and the numbers say Huepel and this staff still have a lot of work to do in recruiting to get us where we need to be to seriously compete for championships! Nobody is being critical here! It's just facts, based on a study of the last 13 seasons and the evidence shows that at minimum, your team needs to have a BCR of 50% (preferably 60%) or higher to compete for and win championships. We're not there yet. That's all the report is saying.

 

[VOLociraptorr]

The blue chip ratio for each individual recruiting class is:
2021: 31.25%
2022: 43.48%
2023: 46.15%
2024: 57.14%
2025: 57.14% (Add Sanders and Konanbanny and it goes to 60.8%)
2026: 100% (haha)

The Blue Chip ratio for the whole team is:
2024: 46%
2025: (projected) 55% based off of expected 2025 class
2026: (projected)>55% based off of increasingly productive recruiting-Including #1 Faizon Brandon

Watch out. Vols are moving into that favorable Blue Chip Ratio!

Good analysis! I will also add that we will likely lose three star guys to the portal and bring in four and five star guys

 

[WillisWG]

"Heupel still has a lot of work to do" as if he hasn't already busted his ass to get us back

No there is a need to do it because so many are uninformed on the subject and just think we had #15 recruiting classes due to a lack of trying. I am going to hammer this into their skulls until they get it.

Do you believe we have the talent right now to compete the SEC elites? Looking at 247s 23 class ranking it's clear we are adding talent but the elites just keep reloading and adding to their all ready talent advantage. That we have work to do to match their talent should be a given. No one in this thread has criticized CJH's recruiting effort. Few if any have forgotten the state of the program when he took over. For the program to be at this point after losing 35 in the transfer port along with the NCAA actions is quite the feat.

 

[ntxVOL]

You know, it is just tiring reading a continual stream of any and all deficiencies of this team. If every positive thread gets continually invaded by negativity, then every thread of this nature deserves the same fate. LOL about every thread like this implies the season is a bust as no one can achieve the ultimate goal unless they meet this statistic that is set in stone. This staff has a lot of ground to make up to be competitive, so why care about the season. The OP implies it will take two or three more years to meet this goal. How else do you interpret the data as presented?

I think it's good to temper expectations on this board.

Some tend to get way out over their skis when we begin to taste a bit of success.

Some of us actually remember the build up to the success we experienced under Fulmer.

For me, we haven't quite passed the eye test yet. Overall talent level is the likely reason but we are improving and that I can see with my own eyes.

IMHO, We don't have to win a championship or even make the playoffs to have a good season, as long as, we can continue to see improvement. I have no problem discussing our deficiencies but context matters. In this case I think it's a productive conversation.

 

[JohnnyJava]

According to 247sports, we have 5 five-star players and 37 four star players. So 42 blue chips out of a theoretical 85 scholarship maximum, which is 49.4 percent. If we have less than 85 scholarship players this year (as most years there is or can be) then we meet the 50 percent threshold. Either way, it is poor critical thinking to suggest that we are a single blue chip player away from being in a group that could have a special season.

We all want the talent gap to decrease with Georgia and Alabama, and that gap appears to be decreasing with Heupel's improved recruiting successes. But we have the talent to be competitive right now.